Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition | Pew Research Center

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September 8, 2022

2. Projecting U.S. religious groups’ population shares by 2070

Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition

Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition

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Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition

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2. Projecting U.S. religious groups’ population shares by 2070
Scenario 1: If switching continues at most recent rates, Christians would lose their majority by 2060 but in 2070 would still be the largest U.S. religious group
Scenario 2: If switching continues to accelerate but brakes are applied, U.S. ‘nones’ would be the largest group in 2070 but not yet a majority
Scenario 3: If switching continues to accelerate unabated, U.S. ‘nones’ would form a slim majority in 2070
Scenario 4: If all switching had ceased in 2020, Christians would retain their majority through 2070
Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition