Scenario 4: If all switching had ceased in 2020, Christians would retain their majority through 2070 | Pew Research Center

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September 8, 2022

2. Projecting U.S. religious groups’ population shares by 2070

Scenario 4: If all switching had ceased in 2020, Christians would retain their majority through 2070

Scenario 4: If all switching had ceased in 2020, Christians would retain their majority through 2070

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Scenario 4: If all switching had ceased in 2020, Christians would retain their majority through 2070

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2. Projecting U.S. religious groups’ population shares by 2070
Scenario 1: If switching continues at most recent rates, Christians would lose their majority by 2060 but in 2070 would still be the largest U.S. religious group
Scenario 2: If switching continues to accelerate but brakes are applied, U.S. ‘nones’ would be the largest group in 2070 but not yet a majority
Scenario 3: If switching continues to accelerate unabated, U.S. ‘nones’ would form a slim majority in 2070
Scenario 4: If all switching had ceased in 2020, Christians would retain their majority through 2070
Transmission, fertility, migration and later switching cause relatively little change in U.S. religious composition