Synthetic surveys overestimate Republican support for military conflict in Iran
% who …
Note: Figures for U.S. adults may differ slightly from those previously published by the Center because they are based on a subset of respondents to the original survey.
Source: Surveys of U.S. adults and “digital twins” synthetic analysis using Claude Opus 4.6 set to low reasoning with extended profile information and expert reflection. Surveys were conducted March 23-29, 2026 (replicated March 30-April 2), and April 20-26, 2026 (replicated April 27-May 1).
“Can AI Stand In for Human Survey-Takers? Not Really”
“Can AI Stand In for Human Survey-Takers? Not Really”
PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Synthetic surveys overestimate Republican support for military conflict in Iran
% who …
| id | Statement | Group | U.S. adults | Synthetic respondents | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran All respondents | Approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran | Total | 36 | 48 | 12 |
| Approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran Dem/Lean Dem | Approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran | Dem/Lean Dem | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran Rep/Lean Rep | Approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran | Rep/Lean Rep | 67 | 93 | 26 |
| Confident Trump can make good decisions on Iran policy All respondents | Confident Donald Trump can make good decisions on Iran policy | Total | 35 | 45 | 10 |
| Confident Trump can make good decisions on Iran policy Dem/Lean Dem | Confident Donald Trump can make good decisions on Iran policy | Dem/Lean Dem | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| Confident Trump can make good decisions on Iran policy Rep/Lean Rep | Confident Donald Trump can make good decisions on Iran policy | Rep/Lean Rep | 66 | 89 | 23 |
| Think the U.S. is doing enough to prevent civilian casualties All respondents | Think the U.S. is doing enough to prevent civilian casualties | Total | 41 | 51 | 10 |
| Think the U.S. is doing enough to prevent civilian casualties Dem/Lean Dem | Think the U.S. is doing enough to prevent civilian casualties | Dem/Lean Dem | 19 | 10 | -9 |
| Think the U.S. is doing enough to prevent civilian casualties Rep/Lean Rep | Think the U.S. is doing enough to prevent civilian casualties | Rep/Lean Rep | 65 | 94 | 29 |
| Think the conflict will make the Iranian people worse off All respondents | Think the conflict will make the Iranian people worse off | Total | 36 | 55 | 19 |
| Think the conflict will make the Iranian people worse off Dem/Lean Dem | Think the conflict will make the Iranian people worse off | Dem/Lean Dem | 56 | 94 | 38 |
| Think the conflict will make the Iranian people worse off Rep/Lean Rep | Think the conflict will make the Iranian people worse off | Rep/Lean Rep | 17 | 13 | -4 |
Note: Figures for U.S. adults may differ slightly from those previously published by the Center because they are based on a subset of respondents to the original survey.
Source: Surveys of U.S. adults and “digital twins” synthetic analysis using Claude Opus 4.6 set to low reasoning with extended profile information and expert reflection. Surveys were conducted March 23-29, 2026 (replicated March 30-April 2), and April 20-26, 2026 (replicated April 27-May 1).
“Can AI Stand In for Human Survey-Takers? Not Really”
“Can AI Stand In for Human Survey-Takers? Not Really”
PEW RESEARCH CENTER
