AI-generated surveys consistently miss results of human polls
Average absolute survey error (in percentage points) between human and synthetic respondents on 3 replicated survey waves
* Estimates for Asian adults are representative of English speakers only.
Source: Surveys of U.S. adults and “digital twins” synthetic analysis using Claude Opus 4.6 set to low reasoning with extended profile information and expert reflection. Surveys were conducted Jan. 20-26, 2026 (replicated March 9-12 and April 7-10), March 23-29, 2026 (replicated March 30-April 2), and April 20-26, 2026 (replicated April 27-May 1).
“Can AI Stand In for Human Survey-Takers? Not Really”
Source: Surveys of U.S. adults and “digital twins” synthetic analysis using Claude Opus 4.6 set to low reasoning with extended profile information and expert reflection. Surveys were conducted Jan. 20-26, 2026 (replicated March 9-12 and April 7-10), March 23-29, 2026 (replicated March 30-April 2), and April 20-26, 2026 (replicated April 27-May 1).
“Can AI Stand In for Human Survey-Takers? Not Really”
PEW RESEARCH CENTER
AI-generated surveys consistently miss results of human polls
Average absolute survey error (in percentage points) between human and synthetic respondents on 3 replicated survey waves
| Group | Wave 185 | Wave 190 | Wave 192 | Average across waves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 11.3 | 14.7 | 11.2 | 12.4 |
| Rep/Lean Rep | 15.1 | 16.6 | 16.4 | 16.1 |
| Dem/Lean Dem | 12.2 | 16.7 | 11.9 | 13.6 |
| White | 11.7 | 14.1 | 11.6 | 12.5 |
| Hispanic | 12.7 | 16.8 | 12.3 | 13.9 |
| Black | 14.1 | 18.5 | 12.7 | 15.1 |
| Asian | 12.5 | 16.1 | 11.9 | 13.5 |
* Estimates for Asian adults are representative of English speakers only.
Source: Surveys of U.S. adults and “digital twins” synthetic analysis using Claude Opus 4.6 set to low reasoning with extended profile information and expert reflection. Surveys were conducted Jan. 20-26, 2026 (replicated March 9-12 and April 7-10), March 23-29, 2026 (replicated March 30-April 2), and April 20-26, 2026 (replicated April 27-May 1).
“Can AI Stand In for Human Survey-Takers? Not Really”
Source: Surveys of U.S. adults and “digital twins” synthetic analysis using Claude Opus 4.6 set to low reasoning with extended profile information and expert reflection. Surveys were conducted Jan. 20-26, 2026 (replicated March 9-12 and April 7-10), March 23-29, 2026 (replicated March 30-April 2), and April 20-26, 2026 (replicated April 27-May 1).
“Can AI Stand In for Human Survey-Takers? Not Really”
PEW RESEARCH CENTER
