Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign’s Final Days
A nationwide Pew survey finds that the midterm election campaign has tightened considerably in the campaign’s final week. Among likely voters, 47% say they plan to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate on Tuesday and 43% say they plan to vote for a Republican.
Voter Turnout and Congressional Change
In recent decades, there have been three basic ways that turnout has worked to produce the sort of “big wave” midterm that the Democrats are hoping for next week.
Cell-Only Voters Not Very Different
Political pollsters continue to cast a wary eye on the growing number of Americans who use only a cell phone and have no landline. The Pew Research Center estimates that this group now constitutes one-in-ten adults. But three Pew surveys of cell-only Americans this year have found that their absence from landline surveys is not creating a measurable bias in the bottom-line findings.
Can Safe Seats Save the Republicans?
One of the biggest political questions in the final weeks of this Congressional campaign is whether the national trend in support for Democratic candidates is big enough to overcome the safe-seat redistricting that in recent years has led to fewer and fewer seats turning over in Congress.
November Turnout May Be High
Unlike the past three mid-term election campaigns, Democrats are more enthusiastic than Republicans about voting this year.
Growing Number of Liberal Democrats
About one-third of Democratic voters now describe themselves as liberal, an increase since 2000, when just one-in-four Democrats self-identified with the “L-word.” Meantime, some 41% of Democrats now call themselves moderate and 23% say they are conservatives.
Bush’s September Gains: A Mixed Picture
Polls show little boost for GOP in generic ballot.
Democrats Hold Solid Lead; Strong Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Bush Mood
Voters view the coming elections through the prism of national issues and concerns
Will White Evangelicals Desert the GOP?
Although President Bush’s approval rating has declined as much among white evangelicals as among the public as a whole, so far evangelicals don’t seem likely to abandon the GOP this fall.
Midterm Match-Up: Partisan Tide vs. Safe Seats
This election year, two heavyweight political trends are poised for collision: GOP unpopularity and the growing power of incumbency.