Determining Who Is a ’Likely Voter’
Scott Keeter, director of survey research, explains why pollsters switch from registered voters to likely voters in their samples as Election Day nears, and how the Pew Research Center determines who is likely to vote.
Romney Split White Evangelical Voters with Santorum in Tuesday Primaries
In winning the Wisconsin and Maryland GOP presidential primaries on Tuesday, Mitt Romney ran neck-and-neck with Rick Santorum among white born-again/evangelical voters, while Romney was the clear favorite of non-evangelical voters.
The Gender Gap: Three Decades Old, as Wide as Ever
Barack Obama’s advantages among women voters over his GOP rivals are striking, with women favoring Obama over Mitt Romney by 20 points and over Rick Santorum by 26 points. When it comes to the political parties, 51% of women identify with the Democrats compared to 42% of men.
Religion and the 2012 Louisiana Republican Primary
In winning the Louisiana GOP presidential primary, Rick Santorum won the majority of votes cast by white evangelical/born-again Christians, people who attend worship services weekly and voters who say it is at least somewhat important to have a candidate who shares their religious beliefs. He also won a clear victory among Catholic voters for the first time this primary season.
Religion and the 2012 Illinois Republican Primary
In winning the Illinois Republican presidential primary, Mitt Romney continued to draw less support from white born-again/evangelical voters than from non-evangelicals, while Rick Santorum has yet to secure an outright victory among Catholic voters in any state for which data are available.
Santorum and Gingrich Split Evangelical Vote in Southern Primaries
Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich finished in a virtual tie for first place among evangelical voters in both Alabama, where evangelicals comprised 75% of the electorate, and Mississippi, where evangelicals accounted for 80% of all GOP primary voters.
Religion in the Super Tuesday Primaries
Exit polls from Super Tuesday primaries show that Mitt Romney continues to struggle among evangelicals, and Rick Santorum is yet to win among Catholics in any state where exit polling was conducted.
Romney Struggles with Evangelicals While Santorum Trails with Catholics
In the 10 GOP presidential caucuses and primaries held on Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney continued to get significantly less support from white born-again and evangelical voters. Rick Santorum has yet to achieve an outright victory among Catholics in any state for which data are available.
Romney’s Wins in GOP Contests Depended on Non-Evangelical Voters
In the caucuses and primaries that Mitt Romney has won so far in the race for the Republican nomination, Romney’s wins have come on the strength of his support among non-evangelical voters.
Religion and the 2012 Republican Primaries: Arizona and Michigan
The vote in the GOP presidential primaries in Michigan and Arizona continued a pattern where Mitt Romney’s support was weaker among born-again/evangelical voters than among non-evangelicals while Rick Santorum received his strongest support from evangelicals.