Are National Polls Reliable Predictors of Midterm Elections?
National elections are the high season for pollsters and with Election Day now less than two weeks away, new polls on the fight for Congress are being released nearly every day. Commonly, pollsters use something called the “generic ballot” to assess the state of the congressional race. Just how accurate is the “generic ballot” in predicting election results?
Democrats Hold Double-Digit Lead in Competitive Districts
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press shows that Iraq continues to be the dominant issue for voters. More than four-in-ten voters (45%) view the situation in Iraq as the most important, or second most important issue in their vote, the highest percentage for the six issues tested.
Can Safe Seats Save the Republicans?
One of the biggest political questions in the final weeks of this Congressional campaign is whether the national trend in support for Democratic candidates is big enough to overcome the safe-seat redistricting that in recent years has led to fewer and fewer seats turning over in Congress.
In Pursuit of Values Voters: Religion’s Role in the 2006 Election
In a Pew Forum roundtable conversation, Forum senior fellow John Green and two prominent journalists speculate that it will be difficult for the Republican Party to mobilize evangelicals to go to the polls in great numbers next month. They also discuss challenges faced by the Democratic Party in appealing to this segment of the electorate.
November Turnout May Be High
Unlike the past three mid-term election campaigns, Democrats are more enthusiastic than Republicans about voting this year.
Iraq Looms Large in a Nationalized Election
A new poll finds dismay about U.S. military action in Iraq at its highest level since the war began and many voters say the issue will be primary in their ballot decisions come November. Resignation of Rep. Foley has little impact so far.
Election Day Stakes in the States
Check out the issues on the ballot in each state, find out who’s running for governor and other state wide offices and see what’s at stake in state legislatures.
Lenski on Exit Polls in the Coming Elections
In an exclusive interview, Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research reflects on conducting his first election day survey following the death of his former partner, exit poll pioneer Warren Mitofsky. He also reveals steps that will be taken to avoid problems associated with the 2004 poll.
Bush’s September Gains: A Mixed Picture
Polls show little boost for GOP in generic ballot.
Democrats Hold Solid Lead; Strong Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Bush Mood
Voters view the coming elections through the prism of national issues and concerns