The U.S. Hispanic population reached 57 million in 2015, but a drop-off in immigration from Latin America and a declining birth rate among Hispanic women has curbed overall growth of the population and slowed the dispersion of Hispanics through the U.S.
From the onset of the Great Recession in 2007 through 2014, the U.S. Hispanic population had an annual average growth rate of 2.8%, compared with an average 4.4% growth each year from 2000 to 2007. As a result, in terms of growth rate, Hispanics – once the nation’s fastest-growing population – have now slipped behind Asians, whose population grew at an average annual rate of 3.4% between 2007 and 2014.
Here are key takeaways from our new report on the geography of the U.S. Hispanic population, which includes fact sheets and interactive county, metropolitan and state maps. (Data on Hispanic eligible voters are available in our state and congressional district interactives and fact sheets.)
1Despite slowing growth rates, Latinos still accounted for more than half (54%) of total U.S. population growth from 2000 to 2014. Hispanics drove at least half of overall population growth in 524 counties that had at least 1,000 Latinos in 2014. In these counties, Hispanic population growth accounted for 54% or more of total growth. The South accounted for 46% of these counties, compared with 24% in the West, 18% in the Midwest and 12% in the Northeast. Read More →
Category: 5 Facts
Many news organizations have recently ramped up their use of mobile news alerts – notifications that pop up on mobile phones, alerting people of breaking news or major headlines. They see this as an opportunity to both inform and reconnect with audiences over the course of the day. And, with about seven-in-ten Americans (72%) getting news on mobile devices, these organizations clearly see a potential audience for alerts.
More than half (55%) of U.S. smartphone users get news alerts on their phones’ screens, but getting them frequently is still fairly rare. Just 13% of smartphone users say they often receive news alerts, according to new Pew Research Center data. And only about half of those who ever get them click through to the full story or search for more information (47%, or 26% of smartphone users overall).
Those who follow the news all or most of the time are somewhat more likely to get smartphone news alerts, but the differences are not huge. Nearly six-in-ten smartphone users who follow the news closely (58%) ever get news alerts, compared with 52% of those who follow the news less often. There is a somewhat greater difference in the tendency of these two groups to seek out the details of a story upon receiving an alert: 53% of those who closely follow the news say they do so, compared with 42% of those who follow the news less closely.
In presidential elections, even the smallest changes in horse-race poll results seem to become imbued with deep meaning. But they are often overstated. Pollsters disclose a margin of error so that consumers can have an understanding of how much precision they can reasonably expect. But cool-headed reporting on polls is harder than it looks, because some of the better-known statistical rules of thumb that a smart consumer might think apply are more nuanced than they seem. In other words, as is so often true in life, it’s complicated.
Here are some tips on how to think about a poll’s margin of error and what it means for the different kinds of things we often try to learn from survey data.
1What is the margin of error anyway?
Because surveys only talk to a sample of the population, we know that the result probably won’t exactly match the “true” result that we would get if we interviewed everyone in the population. The margin of sampling error describes how close we can reasonably expect a survey result to fall relative to the true population value. A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times.
The margin of error that pollsters customarily report describes the amount of variability we can expect around an individual candidate’s level of support. For example, in the accompanying graphic, a hypothetical Poll A shows the Republican candidate with 48% support. A plus or minus 3 percentage point margin of error would mean that 48% Republican support is within the range of what we would expect if the true level of support in the full population lies somewhere 3 points in either direction – i.e., between 45% and 51%. Read More →
Category: 5 Facts
For many Americans, going online is an important way to connect with friends and family, shop, get news and search for information. Yet today, 13% of U.S. adults do not use the internet, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of survey data.
The size of this group has changed little over the past three years, despite recent government and social service programs to encourage internet adoption. But that 13% figure is substantially lower than in 2000, when Pew Research Center first began to study the social impact of technology. That year, nearly half (48%) of American adults did not use the internet. (The 2015 figure of 15% is not statistically different from the current figure.)
A 2013 survey from the Center found some key reasons that some people do not use the internet. A third of non-internet users (34%) did not go online because they had no interest in doing so or did not think the internet was relevant to their lives. Another 32% of non-internet users said the internet was too difficult to use, including 8% of this group who said they were “too old to learn.” Cost was also a barrier for some adults who were offline – 19% cited the expense of internet service or owning a computer.
The latest Pew Research Center analysis also shows that internet non-adoption is correlated to a number of demographic variables, including age, educational attainment, household income and community type.
With Election Day 2016 a little over two months away, many political analysts are projecting Democrats to gain seats in both the House and Senate. But winning the 30 seats they need to wrest control of the House from the Republicans is generally seen as a longer shot than the four or five Senate seats they’d need to lead that chamber (depending on whether or not Hillary Clinton is elected president and Tim Kaine, as vice president and president of the Senate, has a tie-breaking vote).
Shifts of that magnitude are uncommon but not unprecedented: In three of the past 12 two-year election cycles, one party has racked up a net gain of 30 seats or more (most recently in 2010, when the Republicans had a net gain of 63 seats). So we thought it was worthwhile to take a closer look at the circumstances under which House seats do, and don’t, switch from Republican to Democratic or vice versa. (In redistricting years, we excluded House districts that were either newly created and those so radically redrawn that no incumbent ran in them.)
One year after the surge of 1.3 million refugees who entered Europe in 2015 was at its peak, the number of new arrivals this summer has declined sharply compared with last year. But at the same time, the backlog of unprocessed asylum applications has reached more than 1 million and continues to grow, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from the United Nations and European Union.
In summer 2015, thousands of refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and other countries entered Europe daily through Greece and Italy. Germany responded to the humanitarian crisis by opening its borders, allowing refugees to make their way north and west from the Greek islands. In all, Europe received its greatest annual number of asylum applicants since 1985, the first year for which data from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency, are available.
In 2016, people have continued to cross the eastern Mediterranean into Europe, but in much smaller numbers. However, migration could again surge if an agreement between the EU and Turkey collapses following a coup attempt in Turkey. Migration from Turkey into Greece – the transit corridor used by most of 2015’s 1.3 million migrants – largely stopped once the EU-Turkey deal was put in place in March 2016. This summer, an average of about a hundred migrants has landed on Greece’s shores daily, down from the thousands who arrived every day last summer, according to data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
American voters are generally skeptical that either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump would make a “great” or “good” president. But another dynamic in the 2016 presidential election is the significant share of voters who say their vote is based more on which candidate they are against rather than which one they are for.
This stands in contrast to recent elections in years without an incumbent presidential candidate. In both 2008 and 2000, half or more of each candidate’s supporters said their vote was more a vote for their candidate than a vote against the opposing party’s candidate.
In a recent Pew Research Center survey, 53% of Clinton supporters say they consider their vote more in support of her, while 46% say their vote is more against Trump. Negative voting is somewhat more prevalent among Trump supporters: 53% say their vote is primarily against Clinton. Fewer (44%) say their vote is in support of Trump.
More than 150 million Americans are part of the U.S. workforce, and many of them (but not all) will spend the Labor Day national holiday away from their desks, cash registers and workbenches. We can’t predict how workers will use their day off, but we do know a fair amount about who they are, what they do and the U.S. working environment in general.
1Over the past three decades, the share of American workers who are union members has fallen by about half. Union membership peaked in 1954 at nearly 35% of all U.S. wage and salary workers, but in 2015 the unionization rate was just 11.1%. However, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the actual number of union members has risen in recent years, from 14.4 million in 2012 to 14.8 million last year.
The biggest decline in union representation from 2000 to 2015 was in construction and extraction occupations, from 23.8% to 17.2%. Unionization actually has risen, albeit slightly and from low bases, in a few occupational groups: In legal occupations, for instance, the unionization rate rose from 5.1% in 2000 to 5.6% last year.
Category: 5 Facts
The Obama administration deported 414,481 unauthorized immigrants in fiscal year 2014, a drop of about 20,000 (or 5%) from the prior year, newly released Department of Homeland Security data show. A total 2.4 million were deported under the administration from fiscal 2009 to 2014, including a record 435,000 in 2013, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the data.
The overall decrease is driven by a significant decline in deportations of immigrants with a criminal conviction – from 199,000 in 2013 to 168,000 in 2014. The 16% drop is just the second decline on record (1981 is the first year for which deportation data of those with criminal convictions are available). Some of this decline can be attributed to an increased focus in recent years on deporting at-large convicted criminals, as well as to an increase in 2014 in the number of state and local law enforcement agencies that did not honor immigration authorities’ requests to detain for deportation those who were in jail.
Worldwide, an estimated $582 billion was sent by migrants to relatives in their home countries in 2015, a 2% decline from 2014, when the amount was $592 billion, according to economists at the World Bank. This is the first drop in global remittances since 2009, when they fell by $28 billion amid the global financial crisis.
Despite this recent decline, remittances sent by migrants are still about double what they were a decade ago, before the sharp decline in the global economy during the late 2000s. And, with the exception of 2009, migrant remittances worldwide have steadily climbed since the World Bank began releasing estimates in 1970.
The volume of migrant remittances is closely tied to the increase in migrant populations. The number of international migrants (people who live in a country other than their birth country) has grown from about 191 million in 2005 to more than 243 million today even as the share of the world’s population that are migrants has remained steady at about 3%. The U.S., which has more migrants than any other country, is also the source of more remittances than any other country. Migrant remittances from the U.S. continue to go up even though migration to the U.S. from Mexico has slowed and possibly reversed. (Mexico is the largest receiving country of remittances from the U.S.)