Homeland Security produces first estimate of foreign visitors to U.S. who overstay deadline to leave
Under pressure from Congress to improve tracking of foreign visitors, the Department of Homeland Security has produced its first partial estimate of those who overstay their permits to be in the U.S. Out of 45 million U.S. arrivals by air and sea whose tourist or business visas expired in fiscal 2015, the agency estimates that about 416,500 people were still in the country this year.
The government’s report was limited in scope and includes no reliable trend data that could shed light on whether overstays are growing or declining. Read More →
The U.S. electorate this year will be the country’s most racially and ethnically diverse ever. Nearly one-in-three eligible voters on Election Day (31%) will be Hispanic, black, Asian or another racial or ethnic minority, up from 29% in 2012. Much of this change is due to strong growth among Hispanic eligible voters, in particular U.S.-born youth.
An analysis of changes in the nation’s eligible voting population – U.S. citizens ages 18 and older – offers a preview of profound U.S. demographic shifts that are projected to continue for decades to come. While the nation’s 156 million non-Hispanic white eligible voters in 2016 far outnumber the 70 million eligible voters that are racial or ethnic minorities, their growth lags that of minority groups. As a result, the non-Hispanic white share of the electorate has fallen from 71% in 2012 to 69%.
There are 10.7 million more eligible voters today than there were in 2012. More than two-thirds of net growth in the U.S. electorate during this time has come from racial and ethnic minorities. Hispanics, blacks, Asians and other minorities had a net increase of 7.5 million eligible voters, compared with a net increase of 3.2 million among non-Hispanic white eligible voters. Read More →
Just as the internet has changed the way people communicate, work and learn, mobile technology has changed when, where and how consumers access information and entertainment. And smartphone use that goes beyond routine calls and text messages does not appear to be slowing, according to a Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted in July 2015. Read More →
While a majority of Americans have watched at least one of the debates for the 2016 presidential election, there are striking differences between parties when it comes to which side’s debates people are watching. Democratic debate watchers have in large numbers tuned in to the opposing party’s debates, something far less common among Republicans, according to new data from Pew Research Center.
Overall, Republicans are watching presidential debates at higher rates than both Democrats and independents (64%, compared with 53% of Democrats and 56% of independents). But among those who do watch debates, seven-in-ten Democrats who have seen at least one watched a Republican debate, compared with about half (49%) of Republicans who watched a Democratic debate.
Much of this cross-party viewing occurs among those who have watched multiple debates. Indeed, 89% of Democrats who watched more than one debate watched debates for both parties, much higher than the corresponding share of Republicans (59%). In contrast, about four-in-ten (41%) Republicans who viewed multiple debates only watched those for the Republican candidates, compared with a mere 8% of Democrats who watched only Democratic debates.
The interest of Democrats in the GOP debates may factor into which party’s contest is most-watched. Of the debates that have occurred thus far, the three most viewed debates were all debates for the Republican nomination.
This analysis is based on a representative survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 12-27, 2016, of 3,760 members of the Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel, taken online by internet users and by mail among non-internet users. Margin of error is plus or minus 2.3%. Read the full methodology and topline results here.
Correction: A previous version of this post gave an incorrect start date for the survey cited. It was conducted Jan. 12-27, 2016.
With the first 2016 nomination contests at hand, a new survey underscores the extent to which Republicans have come to place less value on a presidential candidate’s prior experience in office – especially experience as a Washington official.
Currently, 44% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they would be less likely to support a hypothetical presidential candidate who has been an elected official in Washington, D.C., for many years. Fewer than half as many Republicans (18%) say they would be more likely to support such a candidate, while 37% say extensive Washington experience would not matter.
By contrast, just 19% of Democrats and Democratic leaners view lengthy Washington experience as a negative trait for a candidate: 27% say they would be more likely to support such a candidate, and 53% say it would not be a factor. Read More →
If Hillary Clinton ends up being the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, her politics won’t be the only thing many Republicans and Democrats disagree about during the coming campaign. The two parties have sharply different perspectives on whether Clinton is religious – as they do about Bernie Sanders and some of the Republican candidates. But what makes Clinton stand out is that views of her religiosity have changed significantly over the last nine years.
About two-thirds (65%) of Americans who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party say they see Clinton as “very” or “somewhat” religious, compared with 27% who say she is “not too” or “not at all” religious. But among Republicans and Republican leaners, these figures are almost exactly reversed: 65% say she is not religious, while just 28% say she is at least somewhat religious, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. Read More →
Teens and young adults were among the groups hit hardest by the global financial crisis. And while many young people have since regained their footing – as employees, students or both – there are still millions in the U.S. and abroad who are neither working nor in school. Though sometimes referred to as “disconnected” or “detached” youth, globally those young people often are called “NEETs” – because they are neither employed nor in education or training.
Although NEET rates rose both in the U.S. and the EU during and after the crisis, they jumped higher but have fallen faster in the U.S. By contrast, many EU countries’ NEET rates remain well above pre-crisis levels. (While similar, the U.S. and EU measures aren’t directly comparable – in part because the EU begins tracking young people’s labor-force participation at 15 rather than 16, and also because apprenticeships and other workplace-based training is more common in Europe than in the U.S.)
Labor economists are paying increasing attention to NEETs – especially when, as in much of Europe, NEET rates are persistently high. They fear that without assistance, economically inactive young people won’t gain critical job skills and will never fully integrate into the wider economy or achieve their full earning potential. Some observers also worry that large numbers of NEETs represent a potential source of social unrest.
In 2015, there were nearly 10.2 million NEETS ages 16 to 29 in the U.S., or 16.9% of that age bracket’s total population, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That represents a modest decline over recent years: In 2013, there were just over 11 million NEETs in the U.S., representing 18.5% of the 16-to-29 population, according to our analysis.
Precisely corresponding data aren’t available for prior years, because the monthly Current Population Survey used by BLS only began collecting detailed school-enrollment data from Americans ages 25 and older in 2013.
However, longer-trend CPS data are available for 16- to 24-year-olds. Those numbers show that the NEET rate among that group generally follows the economic cycle. It fell between 1985 and 2000, from 19.5% to 14.3%, except for a bump during the early-1990s recession. The 16-to-24 NEET rate rose again following the early-2000s recession, fell back to 14.5% in 2007, then jumped during the Great Recession. The rate has ratcheted lower since peaking at 17.6% in 2010; last year it was 15.7%, a hair above what it was in 2008. Read More →
In the digital age, new tools and pathways that attract the public’s eye – from YouTube to Twitter – can quickly be noticed by journalists and news organizations as important parts of the news landscape. A new study by Pew Research Center examines one of these emerging tools: crowdfunded journalism, in which projects can be proposed and funded through online appeals to the public. The report examined the 658 journalism projects funded through Kickstarter, one of the largest single platforms for crowdfunding journalism, from April 28, 2009 (the day it launched) through Sept. 15, 2015.
Though the revenue involved and amount of content produced are nowhere near what comes through the more mainstream media, crowdfunding can help bring to reality work that might otherwise not see the light of day. One striking characteristic of these projects is the wide range of initiatives that have received funding, which we explore here.
Many serious journalism projects received crowdfunding, but the form allows for projects about less weighty matters as well. For instance, in early 2015, Kickstarter contributors kicked in $3,605 to help crime reporter Scott Thomas Anderson in his effort to turn material gathered during 16 months of work embedded with law enforcement agencies into a book about the intersection of prison culture, crime and the underfunding of mental health care.
Later in the year, backers pledged $4,676 in support for the production of a documentary to tell the stories of refugees at the Serbian-Hungarian border. At the same time, supporters pledged $10,032 for a story about the 2014 World Laser Tag Championships. And fans of Godzilla helped the host of a podcast about the movie monster raise over $19,000 – more than double his original goal – to travel to Japan’s Big Godzilla Special Effects Exhibition and produce a feature-length documentary. Read More →
“The Next America: Boomers, Millennials, and the Looming Generational Showdown,” by Paul Taylor and Pew Research Center, is being released this week in a paperback edition that includes nearly 100 pages of new text, charts and updates to the original 2014 hardcover edition. Here, Paul Taylor shares eight takeaways from the book’s all-new opening chapter, “Political Tribes.”
1In an era of head-snapping racial, social, cultural, economic, religious, gender, generational and technological change, Americans are increasingly sorted into think-alike communities that reflect not only their politics but their demographics. The result has been a rise in identity-based animus of one party toward the other that extends far beyond the issues. These days Democrats and Republicans no longer stop at disagreeing with each other’s ideas. Many in each party now deny the other’s facts, disapprove of each other’s lifestyles, avoid each other’s neighborhoods, impugn each other’s motives, doubt each other’s patriotism, can’t stomach each other’s news sources, and bring different value systems to such core social institutions as religion, marriage and parenthood. It’s as if they belong not to rival parties but alien tribes.
And their candidates in 2016 might seem to be running for president of different countries. As the chart above illustrates, the partisan gap in how Americans evaluate their presidents is wider now than at any time in the modern era. Read More →
Category: 5 Facts
The U.S. Constitution and other laws have attempted to draw lines separating certain official government functions from the nation’s religious life. But these same laws have largely steered clear of regulating religion in the political sphere. And indeed, religion has long been entangled in the nation’s politics and its political campaigns.
This election season comes at a time when there is evidence that the country is becoming less religious. At the same time, roughly three-quarters of Americans (77%) still identify with a religious group, and a growing number of people in both parties want their political leaders to publicly discuss their faith.
As the 2016 presidential contest continues to heat up, with the Iowa caucus just days away, the Pew Research Center has once again released a new survey attempting to gauge the current state of the relationship between faith and politics.
Here are key findings from the new report.
1Roughly two-thirds of Republicans – as opposed to about four-in-ten Democrats – say it is important for a president to share their religious beliefs. However, Donald Trump — a candidate many Republicans view as a potentially good or great president —is seen by many in the GOP as not being a very religious person compared with other leading candidates. Just 44% of Republicans and those who lean Republican say Trump is “somewhat” or “very” religious.
2At least six-in-ten Americans and seven-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners view Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio as being at least somewhat religious. This level of religiosity is more in line with the GOP electorate; more than eight-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners say that religion is at least somewhat important in their lives, including 61% who say it is very important. Read More →
Category: 5 Facts