The firm that runs the presidential exit poll expects to interview about 100,000 voters across the country by the time the polls close on election night.
One-in-six (16%) of those who say they “definitely voted” in the 2014 midterm election have no record of voting in commercially available national voter files.
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
