There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump's level of support.
Kyley McGeeney
Publications
By Kyley McGeeney and H. Yanna Yan Text messaging has grown in popularity in recent years, leading survey researchers to explore ways texts might be used as tools in the public opinion research process. In the U.S., at least, researchers must obtain consent from respondents before they are permitted to send an automated text. This […]
Many people wonder: Can polls be trusted? The following essay contains a big-picture review of the state of polling, organized around a number of key areas.
By Meredith Dost and Kyley McGeeney Each year about 36 million Americans move residences, according to the Census Bureau. And they quite often take their cellphone numbers with them. Others have not moved but bought their cellphone in a different state. The net result, according to new Pew Research Center estimates, is that 10% of […]
Online nonprobability surveys are fast, cheap, and increasingly popular. We compared nine samples and found that accuracy varied substantially.
We’re making this change to ensure our survey samples properly represent the now roughly half (47%) of U.S. adults who only have a cellphone.
No research has compared app-based surveys with polls administered via Web browsers. Our new, experimental work compares the results of these two modes.
Pew Research Center methodologists examine the efficacy of intensive data collection with a probability-based panel and the differences in participation and responses when using a smartphone app as opposed to a web browser for a study of smartphone use.
An estimated 46.5% of U.S. adults are cell-only today. To keep pace with this trend, the Pew Research Center will increase the percentage of respondents interviewed on cellphones in its typical national telephone surveys to 65%.
In the coming months, 60% of interviews in our national polls will be conducted via cellphones and 40% on landline phones.
