Baxter Oliphant is a senior researcher at Pew Research Center, where he focuses on U.S. politics and policy research including partisan polarization, trust in government, gun policy and U.S. foreign policy. He received doctoral and master’s degrees in politics from Princeton University and holds a bachelor’s degree from Brigham Young University. His dissertation explored the impact of moral judgments on U.S. presidential elections. Before graduate school, he worked in political polling for campaigns and industry groups. Oliphant is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and the American Political Science Association.
Most U.S. adults say President Joe Biden (65%) and Republican leaders in Congress (61%) will be unsuccessful getting their agendas enacted in the next two years; only about a third say the president and GOP leaders will be successful. Republicans are less confident than Democrats in midterm vote counts – but more confident than they were after the 2020 election.
There has been a sharp decline in the share of Republican voters who are “very confident” that votes cast at polling places will be counted accurately.
The economy is clearly the top issue for voters; fully 79% say it will be very important to their voting decisions – the highest share among 18 issues included on the survey. The public continues to take a dim view of current economic conditions. Just 17% of U.S. adults say the economy is in excellent or good shape, little changed from the 13% who said this in July.
Increasingly, Republicans and Democrats view not just the opposing party but also the people in that party in a negative light. Growing shares in each party now describe those in the other party as more closed-minded, dishonest, immoral and unintelligent than other Americans. Nearly half of younger adults say they "wish there were more parties to choose from."
Today, 54% of U.S. adults say they have a favorable opinion of the Supreme Court, while 44% have an unfavorable view. And 84% say justices should not bring their political views into decisions.
Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say prosecuting those who broke in on Jan. 6 is very important and that penalties for them will likely be less severe than they should be.
