Q&A: A conversation about U.S. election polling problems in 2020
Here, we discuss the findings of a comprehensive report about the polling errors of 2020 and their implications for polling.
Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World
Here, we discuss the findings of a comprehensive report about the polling errors of 2020 and their implications for polling.
Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
Polling organizations have taken close looks at how election surveys are designed, administered and analyzed. We are no exception.
Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?
Data tables from interviews we conducted with verified voters after the 2016 and 2018 elections may help answer some election 2020 questions.
Many who follow polls are asking how these errors could happen. Here, we’ll take a preliminary shot at answering that question.
Polls can’t predict the future. But they are the best tool to reveal the public’s priorities and values, and why people vote the way they do.
If a battleground state poll does not adjust for having too many college graduates, it is at risk of overstating support for a Democratic presidential candidate. The Current Population Survey provides high-quality data that can mitigate overrepresentation of college graduates.
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