Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World

Party Identification Trends, 1992-2014

Pew Research Center has been tracking the party affiliation of the general public for over 20 years. Click the buttons or scroll down to explore the party ID data for two dozen demographic subgroups, categorized by gender, race, education, generation, and religious affiliation. Report: A Deep Dive Into Party Affiliation

Total

Nearly four-in-ten Americans (39%) identify as independents, 32% as Democrats and 23% as Republicans, based on aggregated data from 2014. The share of self-described independents has risen nine points over the past decade, up from 30% in 2004. Over this period, the percentage of Republicans has fallen six points – from 29% to 23% – while the share of Democrats is little changed. (Here is a timeline of party affiliation among the public since 1939.)


Party Identification, 1992-2014

Among general public, % who are …

YearIndRepDem
1992362833
1993342734
1994343032
1995333130
1996332933
1997322833
1998312834
1999342733
2000292833
2001292934
2002303031
2003313031
2004302933
2005312933
2006302833
2007342533
2008312535
2009352434
2010362533
2011372432
2012372532
2013382432
2014392332

PEW RESEARCH CENTER


The balance of leaned partisan affiliation among the public has changed little in recent years: 48% identify with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic, while 39% identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP. Since 1992, only once – in 2002 – have as many people leaned toward the Republican Party as the Democratic Party (43% each). They crossed over two times, one in 2002 as stated and once in 1994 (44% R, 44% D).


Leaned Party Identification, 1992-2014

Among general public, % who are/lean …

YearRep/Lean RepDem/Lean Dem
19924148
19933948
19944444
19954643
19964248
19974047
19984047
19994048
20003944
20014145
20024343
20034244
20044147
20054048
20063847
20073650
20083551
20093750
20104047
20114048
20123949
20134048
20143948

PEW RESEARCH CENTER


Gender

There has long been a sizable gender gap in leaned party identification. Men are divided (44% Democratic, 43% Republican). In 2008, however, Democrats held a nine-point lead in leaned party identification among men (47% to 38%). Since 1990, women have been consistently more likely than men to identify as Democrats or lean Democratic (52% to 36% in 2014). Back to top

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Race and Ethnicity

Republicans hold a 49%-40% lead over the Democrats in leaned party identification among whites. The Democrats hold an 80%-11% advantage among blacks, and lead by more than two-to-one among Hispanics (56%-26%). Asian Americans also lean Democratic by a wide margin (65%-23%). This data for Asian Americans is based on interviews conducted in English. Back to top

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Education

Democrats now hold a 12-point lead (52% to 40%) in leaned party identification among those with at least a college degree, up from just a four point gap seen as recently as 2010 (48% to 44%). Much of this advantage has come among adults with post-graduate experience; currently, 56% lean Democratic while just 36% lean Republican. Among those who have received a college degree but have no post-graduate experience, the gap is much narrower: 48% identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, while 43% affiliate with the GOP or lean Republican. Back to top
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Generation

Millennials remain the most Democratic age cohort: 51% of Millennials identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 35% who identify as Republican or lean Republican. The balance of leaned party identification narrows among Generation X and the Baby Boomers. And among the Silent Generation, Republicans hold a four-point lead in leaned party affiliation (47%-43%). Back to top

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Religious Tradition

Republicans have widened their lead in leaned party identification among white evangelical Protestants: About two-thirds (68%) of white evangelicals lean Republican, while just 22% lean Democratic. The GOP also holds a substantial advantage among Mormons. Fully 70% of Mormons lean Republican, while just 22% lean Democratic.

The partisan leanings of white mainline Protestants and white Catholics mirror those of all whites. Jews remain a solidly Democratic group: Nearly twice as many lean Democratic (61%) as Republican (31%). People with no religious affiliation increasingly lean toward the Democratic Party. Currently, 61% of those who do not identify with any religion lean Democratic – a 22-year high. Back to top

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