In this report, we analyzed the detailed demographics and geographic distribution of immigrants who are eligible to vote in the 2020 presidential election. The term “eligible voters” refer to persons ages 18 and older who are U.S. citizens.
This report’s analysis is based on Pew Research Center tabulations and projections derived from the following U.S. Census Bureau data: the American Community Survey (2018, 2016, 2012 and 2008), the 2000 U.S. decennial census, the November Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey (2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016), and 2017 National Population Projections from the U.S. Census Bureau.
2020 projections
Pew Research Center’s projections of the number of immigrant eligible voters for 2020 were created using the Census Bureau’s 2017 National Population Projections as a base. Additional calculations used to create adjustments were made using Census Bureau vintage 2016 National Population Estimates for the U.S. resident population as of July 1, 2016. For more details about the projections, please visit the Methodology section of our data essay “An early look at the 2020 electorate.”
Detailed demographic and geographic data
Analysis of the detailed demographics and geographic distribution of immigrants eligible voters are from the American Community Survey (ACS), the largest household survey in the United States, with a sample of more than 3 million addresses. It covers the topics previously covered in the long form of the decennial census. The ACS is designed to provide estimates of the size and characteristics of the nation’s resident population, which includes persons living in households and group quarters. For more details about the ACS, including its sampling strategy and associated error, see the yearly American Community Survey’s Accuracy Statement provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The specific data sources used in this report are the 1% samples of the 2018, 2016, 2012 and 2008 ACS and the 5% sample of the 2000 decennial census, all provided through Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) from the University of Minnesota. IPUMS assigns uniform codes, to the extent possible, to data collected by the decennial census and the ACS from 1850 to 2018. For more information about IPUMS, including variable definition and sampling error, please visit the “IPUMS Documentation and User Guide.”
Voter turnout rates
The report’s analysis of voter turnout rates in presidential elections is based on the November Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of approximately 55,000 households that is the only nationally representative source of data on the proportion of the population and subpopulations that reported registering to vote and voting. The universe for the CPS is the non-institutionalized civilian population. For more details about the CPS, including the sampling strategy and associated error, download the series of Technical Documentations provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The specific data sources for this report are the 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 November Voting and Registration Supplements to the monthly CPS, downloaded from the National Bureau of Economic Research’s website.
Calendar of Democratic primaries and caucuses
To view detailed calendars of the 2020, 2016, 2012, 2008 and 2000 presidential primary elections, see official documentation provided by the Federal Election Commission.
