U.S. Politics Jan. 16, 2008

In GOP Primaries: Three Victors, Three Constituencies

The Republican nomination contest is being increasingly shaped by ideology and religion, while the dynamics of the Democratic race are more heavily influenced by class, race and gender.

U.S. Politics Jan. 11, 2008

The GOP’s Unanswered Question

Thursday night’s Republican debate in South Carolina in the wake of John McCain’s comeback victory in New Hampshire and Mike Huckabee’s surprising win in Iowa raised more questions than it answered.

Media & News Jan. 10, 2008

New Hampshire Teaches News Media a Lesson

It wasn’t quite “Dewey Defeats Truman,” but after the Jan. 8 Granite State primary confounded many pollsters and pundits, a key story in coverage of the McCain and Clinton victories was the media’s proclivity to predict and pre-analyze the results.

U.S. Politics Jan. 10, 2008

Getting It Wrong

Several factors deserve exploration, but one should not ignore the possibility of the longstanding pattern of pre-election polls overstating support for black candidates among white voters, particularly white voters who are poor.

U.S. Politics Dec. 14, 2007

Primary Problems: How Exit Pollsters Plan to Cope with a Super-Crowded Election Season

From holiday distractions to winter weather, the people who will be measuring voters’ preferences in primaries and caucuses around the nation will be dealing with unprecedented problems. Here’s how they plan to do it.

Hispanic Dec. 6, 2007

Hispanics and the 2008 Election: A Swing Vote?

Earlier Republican Party gains among Latinos have dissipated in the past year, a new Pew Hispanic Center survey finds. Hispanics also comprise a sizable share of voters in four “swing states” that President Bush narrowly carried in 2004.

U.S. Politics Dec. 4, 2007

GOP Race Unsettled in Politically Diverse Early States

Likely Republican voters in the three politically disparate early primary states express less enthusiasm about their field of presidential candidates, and many voice only modest support for their choices.

U.S. Politics Dec. 3, 2007

Clinton Pressed in Iowa, But Holds Solid Leads Elsewhere

Democrats enter the presidential primary campaign upbeat about their candidates and united in their views on major issues. Sen. Hillary Clinton is the Democratic frontrunner in three key early primary states, holding a slim five-point edge in Iowa and more substantial 19-point and 14-point leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina, respectively.

U.S. Politics Oct. 31, 2007

A Year Ahead, Republicans Face Tough Political Terrain

A year before the 2008 presidential election, most major national opinion trends decidedly favor the Democrats and discontent with the state of the nation is markedly greater than it was four years ago. Also, Republicans have become less likely to say that their party is doing a good job standing up for its traditional positions.

U.S. Politics Aug. 23, 2007

A Study in Contrasts: Clinton and Guiliani

Sen. Hillary Clinton is by far the most popular presidential candidate among her own party’s voters, but among the general public, she has one of the lowest favorable ratings of the leading candidates. In sharp contrast, the front-running Republican candidate, Rudy Giuliani, evokes relatively modest enthusiasm from the GOP base, but is as broadly popular with all voters as any candidate in either party.