Likely Rise In Voter Turnout Bodes Well For Democrats
Even with a partisan enthusiasm gap, voter interest is already as high as in November of recent elections, two trends that may significantly alter the composition of the eventual electorate in the Democrats’ favor. The proportion of swing voters is also up compared with four years ago. Nearly half of independents (47%) are undecided or may change their minds, up from 28% in June 2004.
In Tight General Election, McCain’s Negatives Mostly Political, Obama’s More Personal
While Obama has opened up a wide lead in the Democratic primary, he now runs about even against McCain. The tightening general election shows some sullying of Obama’s personal image over the past three months, which is in some measure a negative reaction from frustrated Clinton supporters. McCain’s image has also become more negative since February, however, unlike Obama, those who disapprove cite his political beliefs.
In the Public Eye: Who’s Up (Al Gore) And Who’s Down (Oprah Winfrey)
Since endorsing Obama, the talk show host’s popularity has fallen among Republicans while the former vice president now rivals Obama and tops Clinton in favorability.
The Race Factor Redux
While the outcome of the North Carolina primary fit into a racial pattern observed in earlier primaries this year, Clinton’s showing in Indiana was less strong than would have been expected.
Obama’s Lead Over Clinton Disappears; Unfavorables Rise for Both Candidates
Barack Obama’s slipping support for the Democratic nomination reflects a modest decline in his personal image rather than improved impressions of Hillary Clinton. Both retain advantage over McCain as economy tops public’s concerns.
Obama Weathers the Wright Storm, Clinton Faces Credibility Problem
Obama’s personal image remains more favorable than Clinton’s – and he retains a 10-point advantage over her in the race for the nomination. But certain beliefs and attitudes among older, white, working-class Democrats are associated with his lower levels of support among this group.
Hispanics Give Clinton Crucial Wins
Latino voters lopsided support for Hillary Clinton more than accounted for her margin of victory in Texas, California and New Mexico.
Tracking the Race Factor
This week’s primaries show that, results in Wisconsin aside, pre-primary polls may either over- or underestimate support for Obama depending on state racial demographics.
Obama Has the Lead, but Potential Problems Too
Obama has moved out to a broad-based advantage over Clinton in the national Democratic primary contest. Public attitudes about the war in Iraq have turned more positive, a favorable development for McCain.
The Hispanic Vote in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primaries
As the Democratic nomination contest heads for a showdown in Texas on March 4, Latinos may be a pivotal constituency in a state where they make up a quarter of the electorate.