May 16, 2016

Millennials match Baby Boomers as largest generation in U.S. electorate, but will they vote?

Millennials, who already have surpassed Baby Boomers as the United States’ largest living generation, now have caught up to the Boomers when it comes to their share of the American electorate. As of April 2016, an estimated 69.2 million Millennials (adults ages 18-35 in 2016) were voting-age U.S. citizens – a number almost equal to […]

U.S. PoliticsApril 5, 2016

Voters have a dim view of primaries as a good way to pick the best candidate

Just 35% of voters say that the primaries have been a good way of determining the best- qualified nominees.

MethodsMarch 10, 2016

Many Americans say they voted, but did they?

One-in-six (16%) of those who say they “definitely voted” in the 2014 midterm election have no record of voting in commercially available national voter files.

U.S. PoliticsJanuary 28, 2016

2012 Republican Primary Voters: More Conservative Than GOP General Election Voters

In many ways, GOP primary voters were more conservative than Republican general election voters who didn’t vote in 2012’s primaries, both in their self-identification and their political values.

Pew Research CenterJanuary 7, 2016

Appendix C: Sensitivity to the turnout forecast

The candidate preferences of voters and nonvoters in 2014 were very different. This fact makes cutoff methods very sensitive to the chosen turnout threshold. Using the Perry-Gallup method, the forecast margin ranges from a tie vote (47%-47%) with a more inclusive model (a turnout forecast of 60% of registered voters, 42% of the general public) […]

Pew Research CenterJanuary 7, 2016

Appendix B: The choice of a turnout measure

There are two indicators of voter turnout available for the type of analysis in this report: (1) each respondent’s self-report in the post-election survey and (2) a voter file record of turnout. Among registered voters, 63% have a voter file record indicating that they voted in 2014 (“verified voters”) and 75% said they voted (“self-reported […]

Pew Research CenterJanuary 7, 2016

Appendix A: The Perry-Gallup measures

The items used in the so-called Perry-Gallup scale – originally developed in the 1950s and ’60s by election polling pioneer Paul Perry of Gallup and used in various combinations and with some alterations by the Pew Research Center, Gallup and other organizations in their pre-election polling (Perry 1960, 1979) – are widely employed by survey […]

Pew Research CenterJanuary 7, 2016

Methodology

The American Trends Panel surveys (ATP) The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults living in households. Respondents who self-identify as internet users (representing 89% of U.S. adults) participate in the panel via monthly self-administered Web surveys, and those who do not use […]

Pew Research CenterJanuary 7, 2016

Acknowledgements

This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals: Primary Researchers Scott Keeter, Senior Survey Advisor Ruth Igielnik, Research Associate Andrew Mercer, Research Methodologist Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Collaborating Researchers Claudia Deane, Vice President, Research Michael Dimock, President Ken Goldstein, University of San Francisco Courtney Kennedy, Director […]

Pew Research CenterJanuary 7, 2016

4. Conclusion

The analysis presented here suggests that modeling the electorate is likely to continue to vex pollsters, especially if no official record of past voting is available as an input to the models. As if to affirm this somewhat pessimistic conclusion, polls have failed to accurately predict winning candidates in several recent elections, including the 2015 […]