Claudia Deane is vice president of research at Pew Research Center. In this role, she works across the Center’s research areas with the goal of coordinating the research agenda, increasing collaboration across teams, setting uniform standards, editing final products and developing new data sources, methods and tools. Prior to joining Pew Research Center, Deane served as the Associate Director for Public Opinion & Survey Research at the Kaiser Family Foundation, where she directed a variety of large scale survey projects focused on understanding the public’s views on domestic health policy issues. Her work there appeared in outlets including the New England Journal of Medicine, Health Affairs, and the edited volume American Public Opinion and Health Care (CQ Press, 2011). She also spent eight years as the Assistant Director of Polling at The Washington Post, part of a two-person team responsible for all aspects of conducting and reporting surveys in the news pages. Deane did graduate work in the political science doctoral program at the University of Michigan, has an M.A. in international relations from the University of Sussex, and a B.A. from Vanderbilt University. She regularly serves as an election night exit poll analyst for ABC News.
A basic question when reading a poll: Does it include or exclude nonvoters?
Opinion polls in the U.S. can address the same topic yet reach very different results. There are several reasons this can happen, but we tackle one of the most basic: Did the poll include or exclude the 45% who didn’t vote in November?
Why 2016 election polls missed their mark
There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump’s level of support.
Flashpoints in Polling
Many people wonder: Can polls be trusted? The following essay contains a big-picture review of the state of polling, organized around a number of key areas.