Jul 22, 2015 10:55 am

Unauthorized immigrant population stable for half a decade

An estimated 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants lived in the U.S. in 2014, according to a new preliminary Pew Research Center estimate based on government data. This population has remained essentially stable for five years after nearly two decades of changes.

U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population Levels OffThe recent overall stability contrasts with past trends. The unauthorized immigrant population had risen rapidly during the 1990s and early 2000s, from an estimated 3.5 million in 1990 to a peak of 12.2 million in 2007. It then dropped sharply during the Great Recession of 2007-09, mainly because of a decrease in immigration from Mexico.

The overall estimate has fluctuated little in recent years because the number of new unauthorized immigrants is roughly equal to the number who are deported, leave the U.S. on their own, convert to legal status, or (in a small number of cases) die, according to the Pew Research analysis. The new unauthorized immigrant total includes people who cross the border illegally as well as those who arrive with legal visas and remain in the U.S. after their visas expire.

Pew Research estimates that, since 2009, there has been an average of about 350,000 new unauthorized immigrants each year. Of these, about 100,000 are Mexican, a much smaller share than in the past. In the years leading up to the Great Recession, Mexicans represented about half of new unauthorized immigrants. Read More

Topics: Immigration, Immigration Trends, Unauthorized Immigration

Jul 22, 2015 7:00 am

What it means to be poor by global standards

The share of the global population that is poor plunged from 29% in 2001 to 15% in 2011, elevating the living standards of 669 million people, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of the most recently available data. The magnitude of this decline seems to be without precedent in the past two centuries.

In the Pew Research study, anyone living on $2 or less daily is considered poor. (Figures are expressed in 2011 prices and purchasing power parities.)

Food a Much Greater Share of Family Budgets in India Than in U.S.But what exactly does it mean to live on $2 per day? And how does that compare with the notion of poverty in richer countries?

Deciding where the poverty line falls is tricky. There are likely as many unresolved questions as there are answers, whether in emerging nations or in advanced economies like the United States.

The examples of India, where one-in-five people live on $2 or less daily, and the U.S., where one-in-50 do, give or take, are instructive.

The $2 line arrived at in our analysis is close to the current poverty line established by India. This may be bumped up to $2.46 if a recent recommendation from the India Planning Commission is adopted. The recommended poverty line ranges from $2.13 in rural India – where nearly 70% of the population lives – to $3.09 in urban India.

Read More

Topics: Income, Income Inequality, Population Trends, Poverty, Wealth

Jul 21, 2015 8:55 am

Work moves ahead on TPP trade pact, but nations still divided over deal

Trade ministers from the U.S. and 11 other nations from both sides of the Pacific will meet in Hawaii next Tuesday to attempt to finalize what would be the world’s largest regional trade and investment agreement: the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But while the pact has general public support in most of the countries involved, there are also deep partisan divisions in some of them over the issue.

This partisanship suggests that TPP, one of President Barack Obama’s principal foreign economic policy legacies, is not yet a done deal.

Support for Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade DealTPP involves a dozen Asian-Pacific nations, nine of which Pew Research Center surveyed earlier this year. Among those publics, a median of 53% think the deal would be good for their country, while a median of 23% say it would be a bad thing.

In the U.S., public backing for the treaty, which the Obama administration regards as a key element of its “pivot” to Asia, is tepid at best. Americans support TPP by a 49%-29% margin, though nearly a quarter offer no opinion.

The strongest support for the agreement is found in Vietnam, where 89% of the public backs the potential accord. The weakest support is in the U.S. and in Malaysia (38%). The greatest outright opposition is in Canada (31%), Australia (30%) and the U.S. And about one-in-ten Americans (12%) and 31% of Malaysians say they haven’t heard of the negotiations. Read More

Topics: Asia and the Pacific, Globalization and Trade, World Economies

Jul 21, 2015 7:00 am

The challenges of polling when fewer people are available to be polled

Around the world, pollsters have had some high-profile flops lately. In both the U.K. and Israel, pre-election polls earlier this year predicted much tighter races than actually occurred. Last year, Scots voted against independence by a wider-than-expected margin. In the U.S., many pollsters underestimated last year’s Republican midterm wave, and some observers have suggested that polls simply aren’t appropriate tools for studying certain subjects, such as religion.

Cliff Zukin, past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and a Rutgers University political science professor, wrote recently that “two trends are driving the increasing unreliability of election and other polling in the United States: the growth of cellphones and the decline in people willing to answer surveys.”

Despite those challenges, social scientists, market researchers, political operatives and others still rely on polls to find out what people are thinking, feeling and doing. But with response rates low and heading lower, how can survey researchers have confidence in their findings? Scott Keeter, director of survey research at Pew Research Center, addresses this and related questions below.

Scott Keeter, director of survey research at Pew Research Center, discusses the challenges facing pollsters.
Scott Keeter, director of survey research at Pew Research Center

Do low response rates in and of themselves make a poll unreliable?

The short answer here is “no.” The potential for what pollsters call “nonresponse bias” – the unwelcome situation in which the people we’re not reaching are somehow systematically different from the people we are reaching, thus biasing our poll results – certainly is greater when response rates are low. But the mere existence of low response rates doesn’t tell us anything about whether or not nonresponse bias exists. In fact, numerous studies, including our own, have found that the response rate in and of itself is not a good measure of survey quality, and that thus far, nonresponse bias is a manageable problem.

Read More

Topics: Polling, Research Methods

Jul 20, 2015 12:06 pm

Latin America’s middle class grows, but in some regions more than others

As a whole, Latin America enjoyed solid economic growth in the first decade of this century, with a fall in poverty, a decrease in income inequality and a rise of its middle class. But in many respects, it was a tale of two Americas, with South America and Mexico seeing more of these gains than Central America and the Caribbean.

A Middle-Income Population Emerges in South America and MexicoFrom 2001 to 2011, South America was one of three areas in the world (along with China and Eastern Europe) that significantly expanded its middle-income population, according to a new Pew Research Center report. Driven by an abundant supply of commodities for export (oil, copper, iron, soybeans, beef, etc.) and a surge in commodity prices worldwide, many South American economies prospered from global trade and from the steady demand of resources in an increasingly industrialized China.

South America’s middle-income population grew 11 percentage points, from 16% of the region’s total population in 2001 to 27% in 2011, and the share of people who were poor dropped 10 points in the same time frame, from 17% to 7%.

By contrast, the economic status of people in Central America and the Caribbean went mostly unchanged from 2001 to 2011. The middle-income share of the population grew only modestly, from 19% to 21%, while the share that is poor declined by just 3 percentage points.

Meanwhile, Latin America overall saw its income gap narrow over time. From 2000 to 2013, the incomes of poorer households grew at a higher rate than incomes of richer households, according to the World Bank. Read More

Topics: Income Inequality, Latin America, Mexico, Middle Class, Poverty, World Economies

Jul 17, 2015 7:00 am

5 facts about vaccines in the U.S.

California Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation June 30 making it mandatory as of next July for children enrolled in public or private schools and day cares to be vaccinated, ending the state’s policy that allowed personal and religious exemptions to vaccine requirements. The new law, one of the strictest in the nation, comes after a measles outbreak in California infected more than 100 and prompted health officials to urge parents to properly vaccinate their children.

The outbreak and subsequent legislation has brought new attention to the anti-vaccination movement, vaccine safety and mandatory immunizations. Here are five facts about the issue:

1Large Majority Views Childhood Vaccines as SafeA vast majority of Americans view childhood vaccines as safe. Roughly eight-in-ten U.S. adults (83%) say vaccines for diseases such as measles, mumps and rubella are safe for healthy children, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted earlier this year. Only 9% of the public say these types of vaccines are unsafe, while 7% say they don’t know.

2Although majorities of all major demographic groups say vaccines are safe, some groups are more skeptical than others. Younger adults are more likely than older adults to believe vaccines are harmful. Some 12% of adults ages 18 to 49 say childhood vaccinations are unsafe, while only 5% of adults 50 and older agree. There are also differences based on race and educational attainment. Blacks (26%) and Hispanics (15%) are more likely than whites (6%) to say childhood vaccinations are unsafe. And 14% of those with a high school diploma or less believe that vaccines are unsafe, compared with just 6% of those with some college experience or more. Read More

Category: 5 Facts

Topics: Family and Relationships, Health, Health Care, Religion and Government, U.S. Political Parties

Jul 16, 2015 9:45 am

Nearly all states allow religious exemptions for vaccinations

46 States Allow Religious Vaccine Exemptions for Childhood Vaccines

Forty-six states currently allow children to be exempt from vaccinations due to religious concerns, including 17 states that also allow exemptions for “personal reasons,” according to a Pew Research Center analysis. One state, Minnesota, allows parents to not vaccinate their children based on a broader “personal” exemption that does not explicitly mention religion.

While all states require children to receive certain vaccinations before they can enter public school, most states offer nonmedical exemptions to those requirements. (Every state allows exemptions for children who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons.)

Only three states – California, Mississippi and West Virginia – do not offer any nonmedical vaccine exemptions. California recently enacted a law – set to take effect on July 1, 2016 – that will eliminate both personal and religious vaccine exemptions. Legislatures in other states, such as Pennsylvania, also are considering eliminating personal exemptions. Read More

Topics: Health Care, Religion and Government, State and Local Government

Jul 16, 2015 7:00 am

Are you in the global middle class? Find out with our income calculator

On a global scale, just 13% of the world’s population could be considered middle income in 2011, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of the most recently available data. Most people in the world were either low income (56%) or poor (15%), while only 9% lived at an upper-middle-income standard and 7% were high income.

See where you fit.

Start by entering your household’s income in 2014 in the currency of your country (our study covers 111 countries). This could be in daily, weekly, monthly or annual terms. Ideally, it should be the total income of all earners in the household. Your best guess will do. Next, enter the number of people in your household, including yourself. (Pew Research Center does not store or share any of the information you enter.)

Read More

Topics: Income, Income Inequality, Poverty, Research Methods, Wealth

Jul 15, 2015 12:29 pm

Early morning, noon and late evening slots drive growth in local TV news

Even as digital becomes an increasingly essential part of Americans’ news diets, local TV continues to be one of the most-turned-to sources for news. In 2014, it even grew its average viewership.

Local TV News Viewership in Nontraditional Time Slots Gains GroundA close examination of the broadcast schedule suggests one reason why. Faced with multiple years of audience declines during traditional time slots – indeed, morning, early evening and late night news on local TV affiliates have lost on average 12% of their viewers since 2007 – many local TV stations began expanding their programming to nontraditional hours such as very early morning, midday and at 7 p.m., according to a Pew Research Center analysis of Nielsen data. These additions are finding at least some new audiences willing to tune in.

The number of stations airing news at 4:30 a.m. was up 18% in 2014, to 320 (counting ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox affiliates as well as independent stations). Fully 357 stations had a 7 p.m. newscast in 2014, up 13% from the year before. And 328 stations aired local news at midday – an 11% increase from 2013. There were more than 800 news-producing local TV stations (commercial and English-language) in the U.S. last year, according to consulting firm BIA Kelsey. Read More

Topics: Local News, News Audience Trends and Attitudes, State of the News Media, Television

Jul 15, 2015 8:55 am

Twitter users turn critical eye toward Greek prime minister after referendum

Tweets About Greek Prime Minister Tsipras Largely NegativeGreek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has found himself at the heart of the European drama surrounding the Greek debt crisis, and many around the world are voicing their opinions of Tsipras on the social media network Twitter. A new analysis of about 300,000 tweets in Greek and English, collected between July 6 and 12, finds that the conversation about the controversial leader has been primarily negative in tone, especially among those posting tweets in Greek.

On July 6, Tsipras entered a new round of negotiations with Greece’s creditors, representing a nation that on the previous day had voted 61% to 39% in a referendum to reject the conditions for a new bailout. But despite the referendum result, and despite the Greek prime minister’s often-defiant tone, Tsipras agreed to a new bailout deal this past week, including additional austerity measures and strict reforms opposed by many Greeks. Read More

Topics: News Audience Trends and Attitudes, Social Media, World Economies