November 21, 2014

How Obama’s executive action will impact immigrants, by birth country

While President Obama’s executive action expanding deportation relief to almost half (48%) of the total unauthorized immigrant population will cover people from countries around the world, those born in Mexico will feel the most impact under existing and new guidelines, followed by Central Americans.

The shares of unauthorized immigrants who will be eligible to participate in these programs are lower from the rest of Latin America, Asia and other regions of the world.

More than half of unauthorized immigrants from Mexico (55%) and Central America (51%) will be eligible for deportation relief under the new or existing programs. Obama’s action was particularly relevant for Mexican-born unauthorized immigrants: While only 11% of Mexican unauthorized immigrants were previously eligible for deportation relief under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program or through Temporary Protected Status (TPS), yesterday’s announcement will increase that share fivefold. By comparison, among the 51% of unauthorized immigrants born in Central America who will be now eligible for deportation relief, about half (26% of the total) had already been eligible under DACA or TPS.

Overall, 44% of Mexican unauthorized immigrants will be newly eligible under the programs announced Thursday, compared with just 24% of unauthorized immigrants from other countries.

About four-in-ten unauthorized immigrants who were born in the Caribbean (41%) or South America (37%) will be eligible for deportation relief this spring. This announcement will double the share of Caribbean unauthorized immigrants who are eligible for deportation relief (up from 21% under DACA and TPS), and triple the share among South Americans (up from 12%).

Among unauthorized immigrants born outside Latin America, the total share that will be eligible is somewhat smaller. About a third of unauthorized immigrants from Asia (34%) and about three-in-ten from the rest of the world will be eligible. Still, prior to yesterday’s announcement, just 10% or less of unauthorized immigrants from these countries had been eligible.

Under the prior DACA and TPS protections, Mexicans made up 44% of all the unauthorized immigrants eligible for deportation relief, while making up 52% of the total unauthorized immigrant population (no Mexicans are protected under TPS). The new executive action’s focus on length of residency and family status means that Mexicans will now be overrepresented in the share that is eligible for deportation relief, as Mexicans are more likely to have been here longer and to have families than most other unauthorized immigrant groups. Among those eligible for deportation relief in the spring, fully 67% are Mexican born, larger than their 52% share of the unauthorized immigrant population as a whole.

By contrast, unauthorized immigrants born in Central American were overrepresented under the original DACA and TPS programs, making up 30% of unauthorized immigrants previously eligible for deportation relief, but just 15% of the total unauthorized immigrant population. Once the new eligibility programs are in place, they will make up just 11% of all those eligible.

Unauthorized immigrants eligible for relief under Obama program, by birth country.The countries of birth with the five largest U.S. unauthorized immigrant populations include three in Central America—El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Within these countries, the total share that will be eligible and the effect of the new eligibility guidelines vary greatly. Among unauthorized immigrants from El Salvador, the share eligible will increase to 63% from the 43% eligible under DACA and TPS. For those born in Guatemala, the share will rise to 37% from just 6%. And among those born in Honduras, the share will rise to 49% from 28%. The accompanying table provides details about the share of unauthorized immigrants affected by yesterday’s announcement in birth countries with at least 100,000 unauthorized immigrants in the U.S.

Correction: This posting has been updated with revised estimates for regions and countries, and with a new estimate of the share of unauthorized immigrants affected by the president’s program. Also, a previous version of this post referred to the president’s implementation of his new immigration policy as an executive order. He has taken executive action.

Topics: Barack Obama, Hispanic/Latino Demographics, Latin America, Unauthorized Immigration

  1. Photo of Eileen Patten

    is a research analyst focusing on Hispanic, social and demographic trends at Pew Research Center.

  2. Photo of Jeffrey S. Passel

    is a senior demographer at Pew Research Center.

10 Comments

  1. AJ2 years ago

    I would have like to have seen more research the relief will have on black immigrant (African & Afro-Caribbean) communities. From this, it’s a bit challenging to decipher trends.

  2. Hugo W. Merida2 years ago

    As always.. you provide important and reliable data that follows the trend of the times… specially to and for the Latino community in US..

    Thank you

    Hugo W. Merida
    Chairman of the Board
    Los Angeles Metro Hispanic
    Chamber of Commerce

  3. Prerna Lal2 years ago

    These estimates are for the DACA and DAPA program, right? And do not include the EB reforms?

    1. Eileen Patten2 years ago

      Yes, these numbers are only based on unauthorized immigrants who will be effected through DACA and DAPA (and TPS); they do not include the executive actions regarding employment-based visas, etc.

  4. Darkwing2 years ago

    What the hell is the EO number. I have searched for a long time and cannot find it.

    1. Eileen Patten2 years ago

      Hi Darkwing,

      Do you mean what is the total number of people who will be newly eligible under these executive orders? We estimate that there will be 3.9 million newly eligible people (in addition to the 1.5 million already eligible through DACA or TPS). To read more about the breakdown of these numbers (for example, how many are eligible under the DACA expansion and how many are parents with legal children), see this earlier blog post from the night of the announcement: pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/1…

      -Eileen

      1. Rob2 years ago

        Not the numbers of immigrants, Eileen. Each Executive Order has an EO number associated with it. From wikipedia ” The Office of the Federal Register is responsible for assigning the Executive order a sequential number after receipt of the signed original from the White House and printing the text of the Executive order in the daily Federal Register and Title 3 of the Code of Federal Regulations. ”

        Darkwing, it might be that the President announced the EO but has yet submitted it to the Registar. It wont have a number until that is done.

        1. Eileen Patten2 years ago

          I see what you mean now. We have updated the language of our post and added a correction — what President Obama issued was actually an executive action, not an executive order.

    2. Robert Potts2 years ago

      Is there an executive order? Pew Research here talks about the executive order and the media (Fox, CNN, WSJ, others) reported on President Obama “signing” the “executive action” or the “order” on Friday. On the WH web site the only related documents are two memos calling for task forces to report immigration reforms in 120 days. Is this what the President signed? There is a DHS memo from Secretary Jeh Johnson directing action on some of this. Is it possible everyone is reporting on and talking about something that has not yet happened? Would be par for the course — who bothers to check beyond the talking points and the press releases. In any event, clarification on this would be very helpful as we try to understand what is being done.

      1. Eileen Patten2 years ago

        As you will see in my comment in the conversation above, we have updated the language of our post and added a correction — what President Obama issued was actually an executive action, not an executive order.