2: Measuring the likelihood to vote
The survey literature has long shown that more respondents say they intend to vote than actually cast a ballot (e.g., Bernstein et al. 2001; Silver et al. 1986). In addition, some people say they do not expect to vote but actually do, perhaps because they are contacted by a campaign or a friend close to […]
1. Polls and votes: The 2014 elections by the numbers
Our equivalent of a crystal ball – the voter file, combined with a post-election survey interview – provides us with a validated record of turnout for our survey respondents. Our post-election survey provides us with the respondents’ report of how they voted. This allows us to see how a Democratic advantage among registered voters in […]
Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
Contrasting Partisan Perspectives on Campaign 2016
Republicans now want new ideas and a different approach in a presidential candidate rather than experience and a proven record, while Democrats are more divided on which qualities they prefer.
Democrats Face Challenges in This Year’s Midterm Elections
While Democrats are more popular than the GOP among the general public, the party faces a number of challenges in November, writes Andrew Kohut in the Wall Street Journal.
Inside the 2012 Latino Electorate
The 2012 Latino electorate consisted of a record 11.2 million voters, but Latinos’ voter turnout rate continues to trail behind the rate of blacks and whites.
White Evangelical Voters Supported Romney
White evangelical Protestants voted as heavily for Republican candidate Mitt Romney as they did for the GOP candidates in 2008 and 2004, and they made up about the same share of the electorate as they did in the two previous elections.
Young Voters Supported Obama Less, But May Have Mattered More
Barack Obama won 60% of the vote among those younger than 30, down from 66% in 2008, but his youth support may have been an even more important factor in his victory this year.
How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis
Obama’s margin of victory was much smaller than in 2008 and he lost ground among white evangelical Protestants and white Catholics. But the basic religious contours of the 2012 electorate resemble recent elections.
Pew Research Center’s Exit Poll Analysis on the 2012 Election
Pew Research Center analyzes the electorate, voter turnout and the issues that affected President Obama’s reelection win in 2012.