2: Measuring the likelihood to vote
The survey literature has long shown that more respondents say they intend to vote than actually cast a ballot (e.g., Bernstein et al. 2001; Silver et al. 1986). In addition, some people say they do not expect to vote but actually do, perhaps because they are contacted by a campaign or a friend close to […]
1. Polls and votes: The 2014 elections by the numbers
Our equivalent of a crystal ball – the voter file, combined with a post-election survey interview – provides us with a validated record of turnout for our survey respondents. Our post-election survey provides us with the respondents’ report of how they voted. This allows us to see how a Democratic advantage among registered voters in […]
Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
Pew Research Center will call 75% cellphones for surveys in 2016
We’re making this change to ensure our survey samples properly represent the now roughly half (47%) of U.S. adults who only have a cellphone.
The challenges of polling when fewer people are available to be polled
With response rates low and heading lower, how can survey researchers have confidence in their findings? Scott Keeter, director of survey research at Pew Research Center, addresses this issue and related questions.
From Telephone to the Web: The Challenge of Mode of Interview Effects in Public Opinion Polls
Among the most striking trends in the field of survey research in the past two decades is the shift from interviewer-administered to self-administered surveys. Fueled by the growth of the internet, self-administration as a survey mode presents a mixture of opportunities and challenges to the field.
14 striking findings from 2014
In 2014, Pew Research Center published more than 150 reports and some 600 blog posts. Here are 14 facts we found particularly striking, as they illustrate some major shifts in our politics, society, habits or families.
Facing challenges, pollsters broaden experiments with new methodologies
Pew Research Center is working to broaden experiments, aimed both at dealing with the problems confronting traditional probability-based polls and taking advantage of opportunities provided by new technologies.
Registered voters, likely voters, turnout rates: What does it all mean to 2014 election forecasts?
How many Americans are likely to vote, and which voters in the survey are the likely voters? Important as these questions are, there is almost no consensus among the pollsters as to how to identify each of these groups.
Q/A: What the New York Times’ polling decision means
While online survey panels have long been used by market researchers, they’re relatively new in the opinion-research field, and views on them are sharply divided.