Name: Across 20 countries, views of the U.S. and confidence in the U.S. president have become more strongly correlated
Creator: Pew Research Center
Published: 2026-08-28
License: https://www.pewresearch.org/terms-and-conditions/

In all 36 countries surveyed by Pew Research Center this year, views of the United States are more positive among people who have confidence in President Donald Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs– and more negative among those who lack confidence in him. But this close relationship between views of the U.S. and its president hasn’t always been the case.

During Joe Biden’s presidency, as well as during Trump’s first term, there was a much weaker relationship between views of the U.S. and confidence in its president.

Take South Korea, for example. In 2023 and 2024, during the final years of the Biden administration, many South Koreans who expressed a positive view of the U.S. did not necessarily have confidence in Biden. The correlation was r=0.37 in 2023 and r=0.35 in 2024. (Read more about correlation coefficients here.)

The same was true during Trump’s first term. Most South Koreans lacked confidence in Trump to do the right thing regarding world affairs in 2017, with 16% expressing confidence and 78% no confidence. But even among those with no confidence in Trump, 71% still had a favorable view of the U.S.

Following Trump’s return to the White House, however, these correlations increased to 0.54 in 2025 and 0.61 in 2026. (A correlation of 1.0 means that as one variable increases, the other does as well, in a predictable, straight-line pattern.)

During Trump’s second term, in other words, South Koreans have become much more likely to view both the U.S. and its president the same way. Now, 68% of South Koreans who lack confidence in Trump have a negative view of the U.S.

The dynamic in South Korea is not unique. People in many countries now evaluate the U.S. and its president as a “package,” rather than separately.

Poland is another country that shows this pattern clearly. In 2017, during Trump’s first term, the correlation between views of the U.S. and confidence in Trump was 0.22. Now, it has tripled to 0.66. Put differently, 70% of adults in Poland who lacked confidence in Trump still had a positive view of the U.S. in 2017. This year, the U.S. is viewed positively by 31% of Poles who lack confidence in Trump.

Views of U.S. and its president were also highly correlated during George W. Bush’s presidency

Pew Research Center has measured attitudes toward the U.S. and its president for more than two decades in some countries. Findings from France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom allow us to take a longer view when evaluating the relationship between these two variables.

From 2003 to 2005, during the administration of George W. Bush (and in the early stages of the Iraq war), views of the U.S. were also moderately correlated with confidence in the U.S. president in these four countries. But between 2006 and 2024, the two variables were generally not as closely linked. Now, in Trump’s second term, these correlations are at or near record highs in these countries.

International views of China, Russia are also linked to views of their leaders

The U.S. is not the only place where views of the country have become more strongly associated with views of its leader.

Views of China and Russia have followed a similar pattern. Views of the two countries have become increasingly correlated with confidence in their longtime leaders, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, across 23 nations surveyed by Pew Research Center.

Country-level correlations follow the same pattern as individual-level correlations

It’s also possible to examine country-level correlations between views of the U.S. and its president, rather than individual-level correlations. Country-level correlations can help cancel out some of the random “noise” present in any survey.

In this case, the country-level correlations reveal a clear pattern: You can predict a country’s favorability toward the U.S. if you also know the percentage of its people who are confident in Trump. And as is true with individual-level correlations, this has not always been the case.

During the Biden administration in 2024, views of the U.S. and confidence in its president diverged considerably. In Brazil, for example, people were much more favorable toward the U.S. (64% favorable) than they were toward Biden (37% confident). There were similar differences of 20 percentage points or more on these two questions in Italy, Mexico and South Korea.

But in each of the last two years, favorability of the U.S. has been much more strongly correlated with confidence in the president. The correlation across 23 surveyed countries was 0.91 in 2025 and 0.90 this year.

To be clear, there are some countries where views of the U.S. and its president differ significantly. In Mexico, for instance, 40% have a positive view of the U.S. while far fewer (11%) have confidence in Trump.

Elsewhere, however, there is a strong assocation – both in the positive and negative direction. In Kenya, 63% view the U.S. favorably and an identical 63% have confidence in Trump. In Sweden, by contrast, 19% view the U.S. favorably and 11% have confidence in Trump.

Country	Median	Argentina	Australia	Brazil	Canada	France	Germany	Greece	Hungary	India	Indonesia	Israel	Italy	Japan	Kenya	Mexico	Netherlands	Nigeria	Poland	South Africa	South Korea	Spain	Sweden	U.K.
2017	0.31	0.30	0.51	0.25	0.51	0.40	0.29	0.32	0.30	0.27	0.47	0.37	0.30	0.35	0.23	0.29	0.43	0.31	0.22	0.23	0.24	0.35	0.32	0.45
2019	0.39	0.45	0.44	0.34	0.52	0.42	0.39	0.37	0.29	0.29	0.32	0.59	0.46	0.35	0.17	0.26	0.45	0.25	0.32	0.22	0.41	0.43	0.46	0.51
2023	0.34	0.26	0.34	0.32	0.11	0.47	0.43	0.57	0.47	0.18	0.23	0.59	0.47	0.26	0.25	0.26	0.31	0.51	0.39	0.33	0.37	0.41	0.35	0.25
2024	0.34	0.38	0.22	0.25	-0.10	0.29	0.40	0.32	0.48	0.28	0.30	0.68	0.41	0.34	0.27	0.34	0.23	0.46	0.43	0.38	0.35	0.37	0.34	0.20
2025	0.54	0.54	0.68	0.46	0.67	0.59	0.54	0.56	0.57	0.32	0.42	0.69	0.49	0.40	0.36	0.34	0.60	0.35	0.65	0.33	0.54	0.58	0.60	0.54
2026	0.55	0.56	0.74	0.49	0.70	0.56	0.45	0.55	0.62	0.39	0.39	0.74	0.54	0.53	0.35	0.31	0.52	0.69	0.66	0.31	0.61	0.66	0.58	0.55

Year	France	Germany	Spain	U.K.
2003	0.48	0.50	0.60	0.53
2005	0.50	0.50	0.45	0.51
2006	0.32	0.50	0.42	0.49
2007	0.44	0.45	0.50	0.45
2008	0.34	0.39	0.38	0.32
2009	0.24	0.38	0.24	0.30
2010	0.26	0.34	0.20	0.27
2011	0.35	0.36	0.26	0.32
2012	0.33	0.28	0.20	0.22
2013	0.27	0.30	0.22	0.30
2014	0.40	0.47	0.30	0.34
2015	0.30	0.45	0.26	0.33
2016	0.23	0.29	0.19	0.19
2017	0.40	0.29	0.35	0.45
2018	0.43	0.21	0.37	0.38
2019	0.42	0.39	0.43	0.51
2020	0.36	0.41	0.50	0.39
2021	0.21	0.26	0.25	0.19
2022	0.43	0.44	0.33	0.30
2023	0.47	0.43	0.41	0.25
2024	0.29	0.40	0.37	0.20
2025	0.59	0.54	0.58	0.54
2026	0.56	0.45	0.66	0.55

Year	Xi/China	Putin/Russia
2017	0.35	0.46
2019	0.40	0.42
2023	0.42	0.50
2024	0.48	0.52
2025	0.49	0.60
2026	0.51	0.62

International views of the U.S. and its president are increasingly correlated

Views of U.S. and its president were also highly correlated during George W. Bush’s presidency

International views of China, Russia are also linked to views of their leaders

Country-level correlations follow the same pattern as individual-level correlations

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International views of the U.S. and its president are increasingly correlated

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Views of U.S. and its president were also highly correlated during George W. Bush’s presidency

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International views of China, Russia are also linked to views of their leaders

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Country-level correlations follow the same pattern as individual-level correlations

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