Sen. Hillary Clinton would not have won primaries in the nation's two largest states--California and Texas--if Latinos had not turned out in such large numbers and if they had not voted so heavily in her favor, according to an analysis of exit polling data.
Several factors deserve exploration, but one should not ignore the possibility of the longstanding pattern of pre-election polls overstating support for black candidates among white voters, particularly white voters who are poor.
The failure of the New Hampshire pre-election surveys to mirror the outcome of the Democratic race is one of the most significant miscues in modern polling history. All the published polls, including those that surveyed through Monday, had Sen. Barack Obama comfortably ahead with an average margin of more than 8 percent. These same polls […]
From holiday distractions to winter weather, the people who will be measuring voters' preferences in primaries and caucuses around the nation will be dealing with unprecedented problems. Here's how they plan to do it.
Summary of Findings Voters in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire are being inundated with mail, phone calls and other contacts from the presidential campaigns. In particular, overwhelming majorities of likely voters in both states have received pre-recorded calls, or “robo-calls,” about the campaign. However, far more Democratic voters than Republican voters […]
This report analyzes Census data and voting trends on a state-by-state basis to explore the potential of Latinos to be a "swing vote" in the 2008 presidential election.
Latinos made up a slightly larger share of the total voter turnout in the mid-term election of 2006 than they had in the mid-term election of 2002.
Latinos made up a slightly larger share of the total voter turnout in the 2006 election than in 2002; but, a new Pew Hispanic analysis finds, the Latino vote continued to lag well behind growth of the Latino population primarily because a high percentage of the new Hispanics in the U.S. are either too young to vote or are not citizens.
Widely cited findings in the national exit polls suggest Latinos tilted heavily in favor of the Democrats in the 2006 election, taking back a significant portion of the support they had granted the Republicans just two years earlier.
Summary of Findings The Democrats’ big win on Nov. 7 has gotten a highly favorable response from the public. In fact, initial reactions to the Democratic victory are as positive as they were to the GOP’s electoral sweep of Congress a dozen years ago. Six-in-ten Americans say they are happy that the Democratic Party won […]