In 11 of the 18 conventions since the Civil War that went more than one ballot, the first-ballot leader ended up losing the nomination to someone else.
Just 35% of voters say that the primaries have been a good way of determining the best- qualified nominees.
Roughly half of Ted Cruz’s and John Kasich’s supporters say that Trump would make a “poor” or “terrible” president.
So far this year, Republican primaries are experiencing record turnouts, much as voting in Democratic primaries surged in 2008. But the longer-term trend in primary turnout has been down.
All but five states will hold at least one primary this year, cementing the primary's dominance over the older caucus system in the presidential nominating process. But compared to 2008, the last time both parties had open nomination contests, the voting started later this year and is a bit more spread out.
There hasn't been a seriously contested nominating convention in decades, and a look at history helps explain why: Candidates who needed multiple ballots to get nominated usually didn't go on to win the White House.
With the first 2016 nomination contests at hand, a new survey underscores the extent to which Republicans have come to place less value on a presidential candidate’s prior experience in office – especially experience as a Washington official.
Survey Report Next week, Republican voters will begin the process of selecting their party’s 2016 presidential nominee. One of the major questions will be which GOP voters turn out, and which stay home. A person’s past voting history can be a powerful predictor of future turnout. A new analysis of the Republican electorate in 2012, […]
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
Survey Report As candidates in both parties prepare for the next round of presidential debates, a new national survey finds that the public is highly engaged by the 2016 campaign. Fully 74% of Americans say they have given a lot or some thought to the candidates, higher than the shares saying this at comparable points […]