In every recent election the public has accurately picked the winner by this time in the cycle. But not this year.
With public interest in the economy at a 20-year high, by a margin of almost two-to-one Americans think the government is doing the right thing in investing billions of dollars to try to keep financial institutions and markets secure.
The race remains close as enthusiasm for McCain increases among GOP base. Somewhat more swing voters (46%) say their greater concern is that McCain will govern too much like President Bush, rather than that Obama lacks experience (37%).
There is little doubt that the fall campaign begins in earnest with McCain having gained the momentum. How good an indicator is this of where the electorate is headed on Nov. 4?
An examination of political websites shows the Clinton team and the Obama team sharing equal billing in online chatter about the Democratic National Convention.
As Democrats gather in Denver, many may be wondering why the presidential race has tightened. An analysis of polling data shows that that while voters are unhappy with the state of the nation and give low ratings to President Bush, the GOP base has started to solidify around McCain. Polling also finds that Obama's extensive media coverage may be a mixed blessing.
A new Pew Research survey finds a decline in the share of Americans who want churches and other houses of worship to be involved in political matters. Most of the drop in the past four years has come among political conservatives.
With fewer than two weeks to go before the start of the presidential nominating conventions, McCain has solidified his support among Republicans and white evangelicals, especially in the South, while Obama lags in attracting Clinton supporters.
A new Pew Hispanic Center survey finds the presumptive Democratic nominee now has a strong lead among Hispanics, a sharp reversal from the primaries when Obama lost the Latino vote to Hillary Clinton by a nearly two-to-one ratio.
Obama is doing better among young and independent women than either of the last two Democratic nominees, but many older Democratic women remain undecided.