---
title: "The public’s predictions on immigration, gun control bills this year"
description: "There’s a pretty good chance that immigration legislation will become law this year. The prospects for enacting a gun control bill are not nearly as promising, according to the American public."
date: "2013-07-22"
authors:
  - name: "Carroll Doherty"
    job_title: "Former Director, Political Research"
    link: "https://www.pewresearch.org/staff/carroll-doherty/"
url: "https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2013/07/22/the-publics-predictions-on-immigration-gun-control-bills-this-year/"
categories:
  - "Congress"
  - "Gun Policy"
  - "Immigration & Migration"
  - "Unauthorized Immigration"
---

# The public’s predictions on immigration, gun control bills this year

[![FT_13.07.19_publicpredictions](https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2013/07/FT_13.07.19_publicpredictions.png)](https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2013/07/FT_13.07.19_publicpredictions.png)

There’s a pretty good chance that immigration legislation will become law this year. The prospects for enacting a gun control bill are not nearly as promising.

These are the public’s predictions for two of this year’s major legislative initiatives. In June, before the Senate approved immigration legislation by a wide margin, more Americans [viewed passage of “significant” immigration legislation](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2013/06/23/borders-first-a-dividing-line-in-immigration-debate/) as likely (53%) than unlikely (44%). Enactment of an immigration bill was hardly seen as a slam dunk, however. Only 14% viewed this as *very *likely.

In May, shortly after the Senate defeated the background checks proposals by Sens. Joe Manchin and Pat Toomey, [43% said passage of significant gun control legislation was likely](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2013/05/23/broad-support-for-renewed-background-checks-bill-skepticism-about-its-chances/), while 55% said it was unlikely.

Americans may have only a dim understanding of congressional process, but their legislative prognostications are hardly unreasonable. With many House Republicans staunchly opposed to the Senate bill, [immigration reform advocates have recently become more pessimistic](http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-reform-2013-august-recess-94389.html). But they are vowing a major campaign on behalf of the proposal over the August recess.

Most congressional observers would say that, if anything, the public overestimates chances for enactment of a gun control bill this year. Even with the families of the victims in the Newtown, Conn., shootings lobbying their case on Capitol Hill, [the issue has fallen off the Senate’s radar](http://theweek.com/article/index/245449/what-happened-to-the-gun-control-movement) since the failure of the Manchin-Toomey bill. Still, Vice President Biden has vowed “the fight is far from over.”

[![FT_public-presidential-predictions](https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2013/07/FT_public-presidential-predictions.png)](https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2013/07/FT_public-presidential-predictions.png)

One thing to keep in mind when evaluating the public’s legislative predictions: Since 1992, it has never been wrong in predicting the outcome of presidential elections. While the pundits’ record has been spotty, the public’s record has been perfect.