--- title: "1. Harris, Trump and the state of the 2024 presidential race" description: "Following Robert F. Kennedy’s recent exit from the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied among registered voters at 49% each. Harris and Trump also remain at near parity in strength of support, with about six-in-ten of each candidate’s supporters backing them strongly. Harris backers continue to support her […]" date: "2024-09-09" authors: - name: "Reem Nadeem" url: "https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/harris-trump-and-the-state-of-the-2024-presidential-race/" categories: - "Donald Trump" - "Election 2024" - "Kamala Harris" - "Political Issues" - "Political Parties" - "Voter Demographics" --- # 1. Harris, Trump and the state of the 2024 presidential race Following Robert F. Kennedy’s recent exit from the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris[] and former President Donald Trump are tied among registered voters at 49% each. [![Chart shows In a closely divided race, wide differences in vote preferences by race and ethnicity, age, education](https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2024/09/PP_2024.9.9_harris-trump_1-01.png?w=420)](https://www.pewresearch.org/?attachment_id=186726) Harris and Trump also remain at near parity in *strength* of support, with about six-in-ten of each candidate’s supporters backing them strongly. [Harris backers continue to support her more strongly](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/08/14/the-presidential-matchup-harris-trump-kennedy/) than Biden’s did earlier this year. Most voters also indicate they have made up their mind about which candidate they will support, with at least eight-in-ten Harris and Trump supporters saying they are certain they’ll support their preferred candidate. ### Voting preferences among demographic groups The demographic patterns of support for Harris and Trump are similar to a month ago. - **Gender: **Men are more likely to prefer Trump (52%) than Harris (46%), while the opposite is true for women. - **Race and ethnicity: **Black voters continue to overwhelmingly support Harris (84%). Narrower majorities of Asian (61%) and Hispanic (57%) voters also back Harris. A majority of White voters (56%) support Trump. - **Education: **Voters without a bachelor’s degree break for Trump 53% to 44%, while Harris leads among voters with a four-year degree or more education (57% vs. 41%) - **Age: **Voters under 50 are more likely to say they will vote for or lean toward Harris (54%) than Trump (44%), while voters ages 50 and older back Trump over Harris by a similar margin (53% vs. 46%). #### Other groups: Union members, veterans Harris has an advantage over Trump among union members (57% vs. 41%). By comparison, nonmembers are closely divided (50% back Trump vs. 48% Harris). Trump holds an advantage among veterans: 61% back him, while 37% support Harris. Nonveterans narrowly tilt toward Harris (51% vs. 47% back Trump). *For more on voting preferences among demographic groups, refer to the *[*detailed tables*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HvCNvXCfTN23fKt0ApWGOAgkeMOBNwn-5HV4LMA1mYw/edit?gid=1374525747#gid=1374525747). ### Support for Harris, Trump among voters and nonvoters in recent elections Among voters who backed their party’s candidates in previous presidential races, Harris and Trump have overwhelming – and nearly identical – levels of support. ##### Biden 2020 voters More than nine-in-ten voters who backed Biden in 2020 (93%) now support Harris. [![Chart shows Those who did not vote in 2020 are closely divided between Harris and Trump](https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2024/09/PP_2024.9.9_harris-trump_1-02.png?w=420)](https://www.pewresearch.org/?attachment_id=186727) Nearly all of Biden’s voters who also backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 (95%) now support Harris. Harris also gets the overwhelming support of Biden’s 2020 voters who *didn’t* vote for Clinton in 2016 – either because they backed a different candidate or because they didn’t vote. But Harris’ margin among these groups is somewhat slimmer than among those who had backed both Clinton and Biden. ##### Trump 2020 voters The pattern among Trump’s 2020 voters is nearly identical: He retains the support of 94% of those who voted for him in 2020, including 97% of those who backed him in both 2016 and 2020. But his support is softer among those who voted for him in 2020 but not 2016. ##### 2020 nonvoters Voters who did not vote in 2020 – including both those who were eligible to vote and those who were not yet of voting age – are split in their current vote preferences. Half say they would vote for or lean toward Harris if the election were held today, while 46% say they would support Trump. ### How Harris and Trump supporters see their vote [![Chart shows Far more voters say they are ‘for’ Trump than Harris, but Harris’ positive support exceeds Biden’s in 2020](https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2024/09/PP_2024.9.9_harris-trump_1-03.png?w=310)](https://www.pewresearch.org/?attachment_id=186728) Harris supporters are about evenly divided over whether they see their vote as more of a vote for Harris (48%) or more of a vote against Trump (51%). This stands in contrast with Biden backers four years ago, who were far more likely to see their vote as primarily against Trump (63%) rather than for Biden (36%). By comparison, Trump supporters are about twice as likely to say their vote is for Trump instead of against Harris (67% vs. 32%). This is slightly lower than in 2020, when 71% said their vote was in support of Trump. ### Do voters think it’s clear who will win? [![Chart shows Most voters say it is not yet clear who will win in November, though Trump supporters are more likely than Harris supporters to say it is clear](https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2024/09/PP_2024.9.9_harris-trump_1-04.png?w=420)](https://www.pewresearch.org/?attachment_id=186729) By four-to-one (80% to 20%), voters – including majorities of both Harris and Trump supporters – don’t think it’s clear who is going to win the 2024 presidential election. Trump supporters are slightly more likely than Harris supporters to say the outcome is already clear: - 15% of Harris voters say it’s already clear who the winner will be, while 85% say it’s not yet clear. - 25% of Trump supporters say it’s already clear who will win; 75% say it’s not yet clear. Among those who say it’s already clear who will win, most say it is their preferred candidate who will prevail (13% of Harris supporters overall, 21% of Trump supporters overall). --- **Next:** [2. Issues and the 2024 election](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election.md)