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Sharp Divisions on Vote Counts, as Biden Gets High Marks for His Post-Election Conduct

2. Voters’ evaluations of the 2020 election process

Most Trump voters say elections across the U.S. were not run well, most Biden voters say they were

About six-in-ten voters (59%) say the elections this November in the U.S. were run and administered well, including 35% who say they were run very well. About four-in-ten (41%) say the elections were not run well. In October, a similar share (62%) of registered voters said they thought the November elections across the country would be run and administered well, though the share expecting they would be run very well (15%) was lower than the share of voters who now say the elections were run well (35%).

A month before the election, registered voters who supported Biden were more likely than Trump supporters to say they thought the elections across the nation would be run well. The gap in evaluations after the election is now even wider. Just 21% of Trump voters now say the elections in the U.S. were run and administered well; by comparison, nearly all Biden voters (94%) say they were run well, including more than six-in-ten (64%) who say they were run very well.

Prior to the election, half of registered voters who backed Trump expected that, nationally, the elections would be run and administered well – fully 30 percentage points higher than the share of Trump voters who now say they were run well (21%). The pattern is reversed among those backing Biden: About seven-in-ten (72%) registered voters who supported Biden expected the elections to be run well when asked in October – 22 points lower than the share of Biden voters who now say this (94%).

An overwhelming majority of voters (90%) think the November elections in their community were run and administered well. An identical share thought this would be the case when asked in October. Just 10% say they were not run well – a view also unchanged from before the election.

Most say elections were run and administered well in their community

Overall, voters give higher ratings to the way elections were administered in their community  than they give to elections across the country: Nine-in-ten voters say the elections in their community were run and administered well, and 62% say these were run very well.

Still, Biden voters offer more positive ratings than Trump voters of their community’s administration of elections. Nearly all Biden voters (98%) say the elections in their community were run and administered well, including 81% who say they were run very well. About eight-in-ten Trump voters (81%) say the elections were run and administered well in their community, with 42% saying they were administered very well.

Voters have more confidence in counts of votes cast at in person polling places than by mail or absentee

Biden voters more likely than Trump voters to be confident in vote count, regardless of voting method

A majority of voters say that votes cast in this past presidential election in November were counted as voters intended, both those cast in person at polling places and those cast by absentee or mail-in ballots. However, confidence is higher in the counts of in-person votes than in votes cast by mail: About eight-in-ten voters (82%) say that they are confident that votes cast in person were counted as voters intended, while about six-in-ten (59%) say the same for votes cast by absentee or mail.

Overall, those who voted for Biden are much more likely than those who for voted Trump to have confidence that votes were counted as intended.

For votes cast in person at polling places, nearly all Biden voters (98%) say that they are confident that votes were counted as intended, compared with 64% of Trump voters. For votes cast by absentee or mail, 95% of Biden voters say they are confident in vote counts — just two-in-ten Trump voters (19%) say this.

Generally, voters’ confidence in vote counts – both in person and absentee ballots – is higher among those with more educational attainment.

Overall, Black and Hispanic voters are more likely than White voters to have confidence in vote counts, both in person votes and absentee. Fully 94% of Black voters they are confident that votes cast in person were counted as intended; 87% of Hispanic voters and 79% of white voters say this. And while 87% of Black voters say absentee ballots were counted as voters intended, 70% of Hispanic voters say this, along with only about half of white voters (53%). In large part, these differences by race and ethnicity reflect underlying partisan differences. In fact, the overall pattern in these views is somewhat reversed among Biden voters: White Biden voters are more likely than Black and Hispanic Biden voters to say they are very confident votes were cast as intended (83% of White Biden voters, compared with 68% of Black Biden voters and 70% of Hispanic Biden voters say this about in person votes, with a similar pattern seen in views about mail-in ballots).

Trump voters’ confidence in vote counts drops after the election, Biden voters’ confidence rises

Trump voters’ confidence in vote counts declines after the election

Biden voters’ confidence that votes – both in person and absentee – were counted as voters intended is higher than it was that votes would be  counted as intended in a survey conducted a month before Election Day. By contrast, Trump voters’ confidence in vote counts is now lower than it was in the pre-election survey. This pattern is consistent with past elections, supporters of the winning candidate tend to express higher levels of confidence in vote counts than supporters of the losing candidate.

Currently, 98% of Biden voters say that they are confident in-person votes were counted as intended; 90% of Biden supporters had expressed confidence these votes would be counted as intended in the October survey. And Biden voters’ confidence that mail ballots were counted as intended is considerably higher than it was in October: 95% now say they are confident these ballots were counted as intended; in October, 77% of Biden supporters were confident this would happen.

By contrast, Trump voters’ confidence in the count of in person votes is 29 percentage points lower than Trump supporters’ confidence in October (92% then, 63% now), while their confidence in the count of mail in ballots is 17 percentage points lower (36% then, 19% now).

Confidence one’s ballot was accurately counted is higher among Biden voters than Trump voters

College grads, Black voters most confident their vote was counted

More than eight-in-ten voters (85%) are either very (59%) or somewhat (26%) confident that their vote was counted as they intended.

Those who voted for Biden are much more likely than those who cast their ballot for Trump to have confidence that their votes were counted accurately. Nearly all Biden voters (97%) say they are at least somewhat confident their vote was accurately counted, with 82% of Biden voters saying that they are very confident of this. By comparison, about seven-in-ten Trump voters say they are at least somewhat confident their vote was counted as intended, and just 35% say they are very confident of this.

Overall, Black voters (95%) are more likely than White (84%) and Hispanic (85%) voters to think their votes were accurately counted.

These views vary only modestly by age, with voters ages 65 and older somewhat more likely than other voters to say they are very confident their vote was accurately counted (65% vs. 57%).

Voters with higher levels of education are more confident that their vote was counted accurately: 91% of college graduates say they are confident their ballot was accurately counted, 82% of those with less education say the same.

Overall, in-person voters (83%) are somewhat less likely than mail in voters (88%) to say they are confident that their vote was counted accurately. However, this modest difference is attributable to Biden voters making up a larger share of mail-in voters and Trump voters making up a larger share of in person voters. Within supporters of each candidate there are no significant differences between in-person and mail voters in the confidence one’s vote was accurately counted.

CORRECTION (November 20, 2020): Several NET confident numbers in the chart “College grads, Black voters most confident their vote was counted” were incorrect and have now been updated. This update did not affect the report’s substantive findings.

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