Some Final Thoughts on Campaign ’08
A wrap-up of possibly overlooked polling trends and end-of-campaign happenings.
Gay Marriage at the Ballot Box
Prior to Massachusetts becoming the first state to legalize same-sex marriage in 2003, only three states had passed constitutional amendments prohibiting the practice. With amendments in California, Arizona and Florida passing this November, the number of states now stands at 29. A graphic charts the recent history of voter-approved state bans on gay marriage.
High Marks for Campaign, High Bar for Obama
A week after the election, voters are feeling good about themselves, the presidential campaign and Barack Obama. Looking ahead, they have high expectations for the Obama administration, with two-thirds predicting that he will have a successful first term.
Liberal Democrats Top Conservative Republicans in Donations, Activism
With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, voters remain riveted to the presidential campaign. But liberal Democrats are engaging in far more activism than other partisan and ideological groups.
Doubts Grow About McCain’s Judgment, Age and Campaign
Obama is inspiring more confidence on several key issues, including Iraq and terrorism, than he did before the debates, and his margin over McCain as the candidate best able to improve economic conditions has grown.
The Religious Vote: Much like 2004, but Economic Concerns Now Top Social Issues
A national survey finds remarkable stability in the candidate preferences of major religious groups compared with the last presidential campaign. But issue priorities among all religious groups have changed with possible implications in November.
Will the Culture War Matter on Election Day?
Leading experts discuss the history of cultural divisions in American politics and what role, if any, they will play in the outcome of the November election.
McCain Gains on Issues, But Stalls as Candidate of Change
The race remains close as enthusiasm for McCain increases among GOP base. Somewhat more swing voters (46%) say their greater concern is that McCain will govern too much like President Bush, rather than that Obama lacks experience (37%).
A Closer Look at the Parties in 2008
As the 2008 conventions approach, the Democratic Party’s advantage in party identification remains as large as it has been over the past two decades, and the Democratic Party’s image remains substantially more positive than the GOP’s.
Likely Rise In Voter Turnout Bodes Well For Democrats
Even with a partisan enthusiasm gap, voter interest is already as high as in November of recent elections, two trends that may significantly alter the composition of the eventual electorate in the Democrats’ favor. The proportion of swing voters is also up compared with four years ago. Nearly half of independents (47%) are undecided or may change their minds, up from 28% in June 2004.