Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
Contrasting Partisan Perspectives on Campaign 2016
Republicans now want new ideas and a different approach in a presidential candidate rather than experience and a proven record, while Democrats are more divided on which qualities they prefer.
Democrats Face Challenges in This Year’s Midterm Elections
While Democrats are more popular than the GOP among the general public, the party faces a number of challenges in November, writes Andrew Kohut in the Wall Street Journal.
Inside the 2012 Latino Electorate
The 2012 Latino electorate consisted of a record 11.2 million voters, but Latinos’ voter turnout rate continues to trail behind the rate of blacks and whites.
White Evangelical Voters Supported Romney
White evangelical Protestants voted as heavily for Republican candidate Mitt Romney as they did for the GOP candidates in 2008 and 2004, and they made up about the same share of the electorate as they did in the two previous elections.
Young Voters Supported Obama Less, But May Have Mattered More
Barack Obama won 60% of the vote among those younger than 30, down from 66% in 2008, but his youth support may have been an even more important factor in his victory this year.
How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis
Obama’s margin of victory was much smaller than in 2008 and he lost ground among white evangelical Protestants and white Catholics. But the basic religious contours of the 2012 electorate resemble recent elections.
Pew Research Center’s Exit Poll Analysis on the 2012 Election
Pew Research Center analyzes the electorate, voter turnout and the issues that affected President Obama’s reelection win in 2012.
Nonvoters: Who They Are, What They Think
A sizable minority of adults choose not to vote or are unable to vote. They will affect the outcome of the presidential election by their absence. Who are they?
Presidential Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge
As the presidential campaign enters its final week, the race is even among likely voters: 47% favor Barack Obama and the same percentage supports Mitt Romney. While Romney holds a turnout advantage, Obama leads on many personal characteristics and issues.