Likely Rise In Voter Turnout Bodes Well For Democrats
Even with a partisan enthusiasm gap, voter interest is already as high as in November of recent elections, two trends that may significantly alter the composition of the eventual electorate in the Democrats’ favor. The proportion of swing voters is also up compared with four years ago. Nearly half of independents (47%) are undecided or may change their minds, up from 28% in June 2004.
Oregon: The Vote is in the Mail
The state’s election officials’ biggest concern in this year’s May 20 primary was whether voters would remember that the price of a stamp went up a penny on May 12, just as they began mailing back their ballots.
Hispanics Give Clinton Crucial Wins
Latino voters lopsided support for Hillary Clinton more than accounted for her margin of victory in Texas, California and New Mexico.
Getting It Wrong
Several factors deserve exploration, but one should not ignore the possibility of the longstanding pattern of pre-election polls overstating support for black candidates among white voters, particularly white voters who are poor.
Primary Problems: How Exit Pollsters Plan to Cope with a Super-Crowded Election Season
From holiday distractions to winter weather, the people who will be measuring voters’ preferences in primaries and caucuses around the nation will be dealing with unprecedented problems. Here’s how they plan to do it.
The Courting of Iowa and New Hampshire: Many are Robo-Called but Fewer Are Listening
Voters, especially Democrats, in two early primary states are being inundated with phone calls, mail and other campaign contacts; but so far there are few signs of campaign fatigue.
Hispanics and the 2008 Election: A Swing Vote?
Earlier Republican Party gains among Latinos have dissipated in the past year, a new Pew Hispanic Center survey finds. Hispanics also comprise a sizable share of voters in four “swing states” that President Bush narrowly carried in 2004.
The Latino Electorate: A Widening Gap between Voters and the Larger Hispanic Population in the U.S.
Latinos made up a slightly larger share of the total voter turnout in the 2006 election than in 2002; but, a new Pew Hispanic analysis finds, the Latino vote continued to lag well behind growth of the Latino population primarily because a high percentage of the new Hispanics in the U.S. are either too young to vote or are not citizens.
Parsing the ’06 Latino Vote
Widely cited findings from the national exit polls suggest Latinos tilted heavily Democratic in the 2006 election, taking back most of the support they had granted the Republicans just two years earlier. Does that mean the Latinos who flirted with the Republican Party are now firmly back in the Democratic camp?
Who Votes, Who Doesn’t and Why
A new survey finds large differences between Americans who are not registered to vote or vote only rarely and those who cast ballots at least some of the time. These two groups at the bottom of the voting participation scale are much less likely than regular or intermittent voters to believe that voting will make much of a difference.