Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
5 takeaways about the 2014 Latino vote
Would Latinos turn out to vote in greater numbers this year? Would the lack of action on immigration reform by President Obama and Congress depress voter turnout, or raise it? Here are five takeaways about Latino voters in this year’s midterm elections.
The Party of Nonvoters
Americans who won’t be voting on Election Day are very different from likely voters: They’re younger, more racially diverse and more financially strapped.
Registered voters, likely voters, turnout rates: What does it all mean to 2014 election forecasts?
How many Americans are likely to vote, and which voters in the survey are the likely voters? Important as these questions are, there is almost no consensus among the pollsters as to how to identify each of these groups.
Fewer Voters Report Getting Robo-Calls, Campaign Ads Still Pervasive
Voters are reporting roughly similar levels of contact from political campaigns and groups as four years ago, but the share of voters who say they have received a phone call about the election has fallen 12 points since mid-October 2010, from 59% to 47%.
GOP Has Midterm Voter Engagement Advantage
Republicans hold a clear advantage in voter engagement in this fall’s midterm elections, but it is more modest than it was in 2010. And anti-incumbent sentiment remains high.
Voter turnout always drops off for midterm elections, but why?
Voter turnout, no matter how measured, is consistently lower in midterm elections compared to presidential election years. Political scientists aren’t sure why, but have some ideas.
Asian American voter turnout lags behind other groups; some non-voters say they’re ‘too busy’
Asian-American voters lag whites and blacks in turnout in midterm elections, an analysis of Census Bureau data shows.
In closely watched case, Supreme Court strikes down key section of Voting Rights Act
The Supreme Court today voided a key provision of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, meaning several states and local jurisdictions no longer have to get federal approval for changes to their voting laws and procedures. The 5-4 opinion, written by Chief Justice Roberts, didn’t strike down the “preclearance” provision of the law itself, but rather the decades-old […]
Inside the 2012 Latino Electorate
The 2012 Latino electorate consisted of a record 11.2 million voters, but Latinos’ voter turnout rate continues to trail behind the rate of blacks and whites.