Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
6 facts about black Americans for Black History Month
Blacks have made progress on several fronts, including educational attainment and voting rates, but large gaps by race persist in areas such as wealth and poverty measures.
5 takeaways about the 2014 Latino vote
Would Latinos turn out to vote in greater numbers this year? Would the lack of action on immigration reform by President Obama and Congress depress voter turnout, or raise it? Here are five takeaways about Latino voters in this year’s midterm elections.
The Party of Nonvoters
Americans who won’t be voting on Election Day are very different from likely voters: They’re younger, more racially diverse and more financially strapped.
Registered voters, likely voters, turnout rates: What does it all mean to 2014 election forecasts?
How many Americans are likely to vote, and which voters in the survey are the likely voters? Important as these questions are, there is almost no consensus among the pollsters as to how to identify each of these groups.