3. Comparing the results of different likely voter models
All told, we tested 16 different variations on four types of likely voter methods, producing estimates that range from a 2-point Democratic lead to a 7-point Republican advantage in the generic U.S. House vote. The benchmark for comparison is a 3-point Republican lead among verified voters (49% Republican, 46% Democratic) when they were interviewed prior […]
2: Measuring the likelihood to vote
The survey literature has long shown that more respondents say they intend to vote than actually cast a ballot (e.g., Bernstein et al. 2001; Silver et al. 1986). In addition, some people say they do not expect to vote but actually do, perhaps because they are contacted by a campaign or a friend close to […]
1. Polls and votes: The 2014 elections by the numbers
Our equivalent of a crystal ball – the voter file, combined with a post-election survey interview – provides us with a validated record of turnout for our survey respondents. Our post-election survey provides us with the respondents’ report of how they voted. This allows us to see how a Democratic advantage among registered voters in […]
Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
6 facts about black Americans for Black History Month
Blacks have made progress on several fronts, including educational attainment and voting rates, but large gaps by race persist in areas such as wealth and poverty measures.
5 takeaways about the 2014 Latino vote
Would Latinos turn out to vote in greater numbers this year? Would the lack of action on immigration reform by President Obama and Congress depress voter turnout, or raise it? Here are five takeaways about Latino voters in this year’s midterm elections.
The Party of Nonvoters
Americans who won’t be voting on Election Day are very different from likely voters: They’re younger, more racially diverse and more financially strapped.
Registered voters, likely voters, turnout rates: What does it all mean to 2014 election forecasts?
How many Americans are likely to vote, and which voters in the survey are the likely voters? Important as these questions are, there is almost no consensus among the pollsters as to how to identify each of these groups.
Fewer Voters Report Getting Robo-Calls, Campaign Ads Still Pervasive
Voters are reporting roughly similar levels of contact from political campaigns and groups as four years ago, but the share of voters who say they have received a phone call about the election has fallen 12 points since mid-October 2010, from 59% to 47%.
GOP Has Midterm Voter Engagement Advantage
Republicans hold a clear advantage in voter engagement in this fall’s midterm elections, but it is more modest than it was in 2010. And anti-incumbent sentiment remains high.