In little more than a century, the religious landscape of sub-Saharan Africa has changed dramatically. As of 1900, both Muslims and Christians were relatively small minorities in the region. The vast majority of people practiced traditional African religions, while adherents of Christianity and Islam combined made up less than a quarter of the population, according to historical estimates from the World Religion Database.

Since then, however, the number of Muslims living between the Sahara Desert and the Cape of Good Hope has increased more than 20-fold, rising from an estimated 11 million in 1900 to approximately 234 million in 2010. The number of Christians has grown even faster, soaring almost 70-fold from about 7 million to 470 million. Sub-Saharan Africa now is home to about one-in-five of all the Christians in the world (21%) and more than one-in-seven of the world’s Muslims (15%).

While sub-Saharan Africa has almost twice as many Christians as Muslims, on the African continent as a whole the two faiths are roughly balanced, with 400 million to 500 million followers each. Since northern Africa is heavily Muslim and southern Africa is heavily Christian, the great meeting place is in the middle, a 4,000-mile swath from Somalia in the east to Senegal in the west.

To some outside observers, this is a volatile religious fault line — the site, for example, of al-Qaeda’s first major terrorist strike, the bombing of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, and more recently of ethnic and sectarian bloodshed in Nigeria, where hundreds of Muslims and Christians have been killed.

To others, religion is not so much a source of conflict as a source of hope in sub-Saharan Africa, where religious leaders and movements are a major force in civil society and a key provider of relief and development for the needy, particularly given the widespread reality of failed states and collapsing government services.

But how do sub-Saharan Africans themselves view the role of religion in their lives and societies? To address this question, the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life, with generous funding from The Pew Charitable Trusts and the John Templeton Foundation, conducted a major public opinion survey involving more than 25,000 face-to-face interviews in more than 60 languages or dialects in 19 countries, representing 75% of the total population of sub-Saharan Africa.

Our survey asked people to describe their religious beliefs and practices. We sought to gauge their knowledge of, and attitudes toward, other faiths. We tried to assess their degree of political and economic satisfaction; their concerns about crime, corruption and extremism; their positions on issues such as abortion and polygamy; and their views of democracy, religious law and the place of women in society.

The resulting report offers a detailed and in some ways surprising portrait of religion and society in a wide variety of countries, some heavily Muslim, some heavily Christian and some mixed. Africans have long been seen as devout and morally conservative, and the survey largely confirms this. But insofar as the conventional wisdom has been that Africans are lacking in tolerance for people of other faiths, it may need rethinking.

The report also may pose some apparent paradoxes, at least to Western readers. The survey findings suggest that many Africans are deeply committed to Islam or Christianity and yet continue to practice elements of traditional African religions. Many support democracy and say it is a good thing that people from other religions are able to practice their faith freely. At the same time, they also favor making the Bible or sharia law the official law of the land. And while both Muslims and Christians recognize positive attributes in one another, tensions lie close to the surface.

It is our hope that the survey will contribute to a better understanding of the role religion plays in the private and public lives of the approximately 820 million people living in sub-Saharan Africa. This report is part of a larger effort — the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures Project — that aims to increase people’s knowledge of religion around the world.

– Luis Lugo and Alan Cooperman

Executive Summary

The vast majority of people in many sub-Saharan African nations are deeply committed to the practices and major tenets of one or the other of the world’s two largest religions, Christianity and Islam. Large majorities say they belong to one of these faiths, and, in sharp contrast with Europe and the United States, very few people are religiously unaffiliated. Despite the dominance of Christianity and Islam, traditional African religious beliefs and practices have not disappeared. Rather, they coexist with Islam and Christianity. Whether or not this entails some theological tension, it is a reality in people’s lives: Large numbers of Africans actively participate in Christianity or Islam yet also believe in witchcraft, evil spirits, sacrifices to ancestors, traditional religious healers, reincarnation and other elements of traditional African religions.

Christianity and Islam also coexist with each other. Many Christians and Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa describe members of the other faith as tolerant and honest. In most countries, relatively few see evidence of widespread anti-Muslim or anti-Christian hostility, and on the whole they give their governments high marks for treating both religious groups fairly. But they acknowledge that they know relatively little about each other’s faith, and substantial numbers of African Christians (roughly 40% or more in a dozen nations) say they consider Muslims to be violent. Muslims are significantly more positive in their assessment of Christians than Christians are in their assessment of Muslims.

There are few significant gaps, however, in the degree of support among Christians and Muslims for democracy. Regardless of their faith, most sub-Saharan Africans say they favor democracy and think it is a good thing that people from other religions are able to practice their faith freely. At the same time, there is substantial backing among Muslims and Christians alike for government based on either the Bible or sharia law, and considerable support among Muslims for the imposition of severe punishments such as stoning people who commit adultery.

These are among the key findings from more than 25,000 face-to-face interviews conducted on behalf of the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life in more than 60 languages or dialects in 19 sub-Saharan African nations from December 2008 to April 2009. (For additional details, see the survey methodology.) The countries were selected to span this vast geographical region and to reflect different colonial histories, linguistic backgrounds and religious compositions. In total, the countries surveyed contain three-quarters of the total population of sub-Saharan Africa. (View a PDF map of the 19 countries surveyed.)

Other Findings

In addition, the 19-nation survey finds:

• Africans generally rank unemployment, crime and corruption as bigger problems than religious conflict. However, substantial numbers of people (including nearly six-in-ten Nigerians and Rwandans) say religious conflict is a very big problem in their country.
• The degree of concern about religious conflict varies from country to country but tracks closely with the degree of concern about ethnic conflict in many countries, suggesting that they are often related.
• Many Africans are concerned about religious extremism, including within their own faith. Indeed, many Muslims say they are more concerned about Muslim extremism than about Christian extremism, and Christians in four countries say they are more concerned about Christian extremism than about Muslim extremism.
• Neither Christianity nor Islam is growing significantly in sub-Saharan Africa at the expense of the other; there is virtually no net change in either direction through religious switching.
• At least half of all Christians in every country surveyed expect that Jesus will return to earth in their lifetime, while roughly 30% or more of Muslims expect to live to see the re-establishment of the caliphate, the golden age of Islamic rule.
• People who say violence against civilians in defense of one’s religion is rarely or never justified vastly outnumber those who say it is sometimes or often justified. But substantial minorities (20% or more) in many countries say violence against civilians in defense of one’s religion is sometimes or often justified.
• In most countries, at least half of Muslims say that women should not have the right to decide whether to wear a veil, saying instead that the decision should be up to society as a whole.
• Circumcision of girls (female genital cutting) is highest in the predominantly Muslim countries of Mali and Djibouti but is more common among Christians than among Muslims in Uganda.
• Majorities in almost every country say that Western music, movies and television have harmed morality in their nation. Yet majorities in most countries also say they personally like Western entertainment.
• In most countries, more than half of Christians believe in the prosperity gospel — that God will grant wealth and good health to people who have enough faith.
• By comparison with people in many other regions of the world, sub-Saharan Africans are much more optimistic that their lives will change for the better.

(View an interactive database to explore public opinion in 19 sub-Saharan African nations on topics ranging from religious beliefs and practices to views on religious extremism and morality.)

Adherence to Islam and Christianity

Large majorities in all the countries surveyed say they believe in one God and in heaven and hell, and large numbers of Christians and Muslims alike believe in the literal truth of their scriptures (either the Bible or the Koran). Most people also say they attend worship services at least once a week, pray every day (in the case of Muslims, generally five times a day), fast during the holy periods of Ramadan or Lent, and give religious alms (tithing for Christians, zakat for Muslims; see the glossary of terms for more information about tithing and zakat).

Indeed, sub-Saharan Africa is clearly among the most religious places in the world. In many countries across the continent, roughly nine-in-ten people or more say religion is very important in their lives. By this key measure, even the least religiously inclined nations in the region score higher than the United States, which is among the most religious of the advanced industrial countries.

Persistence of Traditional African Religious Practices

At the same time, many of those who indicate they are deeply committed to the practice of Christianity or Islam also incorporate elements of African traditional religions into their daily lives. For example, in four countries (Tanzania, Mali, Senegal and South Africa) more than half the people surveyed believe that sacrifices to ancestors or spirits can protect them from harm.

Sizable percentages of both Christians and Muslims — a quarter or more in many countries — say they believe in the protective power of juju (charms or amulets). Many people also say they consult traditional religious healers when someone in their household is sick, and sizable minorities in several countries keep sacred objects such as animal skins and skulls in their homes and participate in ceremonies to honor their ancestors. And although relatively few people today identify themselves primarily as followers of a traditional African religion, many people in several countries say they have relatives who identify with these traditional faiths.

Tolerance, but Also Tensions

The survey finds that on several measures, many Muslims and Christians hold favorable views of each other. Muslims generally say Christians are tolerant, honest and respectful of women, and in most countries half or more Christians say Muslims are honest, devout and respectful of women. In roughly half the countries surveyed, majorities also say they trust people who have different religious values than their own.

Sizable majorities in every country surveyed say that people of different faiths are very free to practice their religion, and most add that this is a good thing rather than a bad thing. In most countries, majorities say it is all right if their political leaders are of a different religion than their own. And in most countries, significant minorities (20% or more) of people who attend religious services say that their mosque or church works across religious lines to address community problems.

On the other hand, the survey also reveals clear signs of tension and division. Overall, Christians are less positive in their views of Muslims than Muslims are of Christians; substantial numbers of Christians (ranging from 20% in Guinea Bissau to 70% in Chad) say they think of Muslims as violent. In a handful of countries, a third or more of Christians say many or most Muslims are hostile toward Christians, and in a few countries a third or more of Muslims say many or most Christians are hostile toward Muslims.

By their own reckoning, neither Christians nor Muslims in the region know very much about each other’s faith. In most countries, fewer than half of Christians say they know either some or a great deal about Islam, and fewer than half of Muslims say they know either some or a great deal about Christianity. Moreover, people in most countries surveyed, especially Christians, tend to view the two faiths as very different rather than as having a lot in common. And many people say they are not comfortable with the idea of their children marrying a spouse from outside their religion.

People throughout the region generally see conflict between religious groups as a modest problem compared with other issues such as unemployment, crime and corruption. Still, substantial numbers in all the countries surveyed except Botswana and Zambia say religious conflict is a very big problem in their country, reaching a high of 58% in Nigeria and Rwanda. In addition, substantial minorities (20% or more) in many countries say that violence against civilians in defense of one’s religion can sometimes or often be justified. And large numbers (more than 40%) in nearly every country express concern about extremist religious groups in their nation, including within their own religious community in some instances. Indeed, in almost all countries in which Muslims constitute at least 10% of the population, Muslims are more concerned about Muslim extremism than they are about Christian extremism, while in a few overwhelmingly Christian countries, including South Africa, Christians are more concerned about Christian extremism than about Muslim extremism. And in many countries, sizable numbers express concern about both Muslim and Christian extremism.

Support for Both Democracy and Religious Law

Across the sub-Saharan region, large numbers of people express strong support for democracy and say it is a good thing that people from religions different than their own are able to practice their faith freely. Asked whether democracy is preferable to any other kind of government or “in some circumstances, a nondemocratic government can be preferable,” strong majorities in every country choose democracy. In most places there is no significant difference between Muslims and Christians on this question.

At the same time, there is substantial backing from both Muslims and Christians for basing civil laws on the Bible or sharia law. This may simply reflect the importance of religion in Africa. But it is nonetheless striking that in virtually all the countries surveyed, a majority or substantial minority (a third or more) of Christians favor making the Bible the official law of the land, while similarly large numbers of Muslims say they would like to enshrine sharia, or Islamic law.

Majorities of Muslims in nearly all the countries surveyed support allowing leaders and judges to use their religious beliefs when deciding family and property disputes, as do sizable minorities (30% or more) of Christians in most countries. Similarly, the survey finds considerable support among Muslims in several countries for the application of criminal sanctions such as stoning people who commit adultery, and whipping or cutting off the hands of thieves. Support for these kinds of punishments is consistently lower among Christians than among Muslims. The survey also finds that in seven countries, roughly one-third or more of Muslims say they support the death penalty for those who leave Islam.

The End of Christian and Muslim Expansion?

While the survey finds that both Christianity and Islam are flourishing in sub-Saharan Africa, the results suggest that neither faith may expand as rapidly in this region in the years ahead as it did in the 20th century, except possibly through natural population growth. There are two main reasons for this conclusion. First, the survey shows that most people in the region have committed to Christianity or Islam, which means the pool of potential converts from outside these two faiths has decreased dramatically. In most countries surveyed, 90% or more describe themselves as either Christians or Muslims, meaning that fewer than one-in-ten identify as adherents of other faiths (including African traditional religions) or no faith.

Second, there is little evidence in the survey findings to indicate that either Christianity or Islam is growing in sub-Saharan Africa at the expense of the other. Although a relatively small percentage of Muslims have become Christians, and a relatively small percentage of Christians have become Muslims, the survey finds no substantial shift in either direction. One exception is Uganda, where roughly one-third of respondents who were raised Muslim now describe themselves as Christian, while far fewer Ugandans who were raised Christian now describe themselves as Muslim.

Intense Religious Experiences and the Influence of Pentecostalism

Many Christians and Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa experience their respective faiths in a very intense, immediate, personal way. For example, three-in-ten or more of the people in many countries say they have experienced a divine healing, witnessed the devil being driven out of a person or received a direct revelation from God. Moreover, in every country surveyed that has a substantial Christian population, at least half of Christians expect that Jesus will return to earth during their lifetime. And in every country surveyed that has a substantial Muslim population, roughly 30% or more of Muslims expect to personally witness the re-establishment of the caliphate, the golden age of Islamic rule that followed the death of Muhammad.

Many of these intense religious experiences, including divine healings and exorcisms, are also characteristic of traditional African religions. Within Christianity, these kinds of experiences are particularly associated with Pentecostalism, which emphasizes such gifts of the Holy Spirit as speaking in tongues, giving or interpreting prophecy, receiving direct revelations from God, exorcising evil and healing through prayer. About a quarter of all Christians in four sub-Saharan countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Liberia and Nigeria) now belong to Pentecostal denominations, as do at least one-in-ten Christians in eight other countries. But the survey finds that divine healings, exorcisms and direct revelations from God are commonly reported by African Christians who are not affiliated with Pentecostal churches.

Morality and Culture

In nearly all the countries surveyed, large majorities believe it is necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values. Clear majorities in almost every country believe that Western music, movies and television have hurt moral standards. South Africa and Guinea Bissau are the only exceptions to this finding, and even in those nations a plurality of the survey respondents view Western entertainment as exerting a harmful moral influence. On the other hand, majorities in most countries say they personally like Western TV, movies and music, with Christians particularly inclined to say so. And in many countries, people are more inclined to say there is not a conflict between being a devout religious person and living in modern society than to say there is a conflict.

Throughout sub-Saharan Africa, Christians and Muslims alike express strong opposition to homosexual behavior, abortion, prostitution and sex between unmarried people. There are, however, pronounced differences between the two religious groups on the question of polygamy. Muslims are much more inclined than Christians to approve of polygamy or say this is not a moral issue.

Optimism and Progress

Sub-Saharan Africans commonly cite unemployment as a major problem. In most countries, more than half of the people surveyed say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country. And compared with people surveyed in 2007 in other regions of the world, somewhat fewer sub-Saharan Africans today indicate they are highly satisfied with their lives. At least 30% in every country say there have been times in the last year when they did not have enough money to buy food for their families. And yet, many sub-Saharan Africans say their lives have improved over the past five years. In fact, the percentage of sub-Saharan Africans who indicate in 2009 that their lives have improved over the preceding five years rivals or exceeds the number of people in many other regions of the world who said the same in 2007. And people in the African countries surveyed are more likely than people in many other regions to express optimism that their lives will improve in the future.

About the Report

These and other findings are discussed in more detail in the remainder of this report, which is divided into five main sections:

• Religious Affiliation
• Commitment to Christianity and Islam
• Traditional African Religious Beliefs and Practices
• Interreligious Harmony and Tensions
• Religion and Society

This report also includes a glossary of key terms, a description of the methods used for this survey, and a topline including full question wording and survey results. The online version of the report, including interactive graphics, is available at http://features.pewforum.org/africa/.

The survey was conducted among at least 1,000 respondents in each of the 19 countries. In three predominantly Muslim countries (Djibouti, Mali and Senegal), there were too few interviews with Christian respondents to be able to analyze the Christian subpopulation. In four predominantly Christian countries (Botswana, Rwanda, South Africa and Zambia), there were too few interviews with Muslims to be able to analyze the Muslim subpopulation. This leaves 12 countries in which comparisons between Christians and Muslims are possible.

Readers should note that the 19 national polls on which this report is based were not designed to provide detailed demographic profiles of households in each country. Rather, the survey aims to compare the views of different religious groups and the general population of the countries on a wide variety of questions concerning religious beliefs and practices as well as religion’s role in society. In other studies, such as “Mapping the Global Muslim Population” (2009), the Pew Forum provides estimates of the religious composition of countries in Africa and elsewhere based on very large datasets (such as national censuses and demographic and health surveys) that sometimes differ from the population figures presented here. An appendix provides comparative estimates of religious composition from some recent surveys and censuses.

Continue reading the full report online at pewforum.org or download the complete PDF report.

A comprehensive demographic study of more than 200 countries finds that there are 1.57 billion Muslims of all ages living in the world today, representing 23% of an estimated 2009 world population of 6.8 billion.

While Muslims are found on all five inhabited continents, more than 60% of the global Muslim population is in Asia and about 20% is in the Middle East and North Africa. However, the Middle East-North Africa region has the highest percentage of Muslim-majority countries. Indeed, more than half of the 20 countries and territories¹ in that region have populations that are approximately 95% Muslim or greater.

More than 300 million Muslims, or one-fifth of the world’s Muslim population, live in countries where Islam is not the majority religion. These minority Muslim populations are often quite large. India, for example, has the third-largest population of Muslims worldwide. China has more Muslims than Syria, while Russia is home to more Muslims than Jordan and Libya combined.

Of the total Muslim population, 10-13% are Shia Muslims and 87-90% are Sunni Muslims. Most Shias (between 68% and 80%) live in just four countries: Iran, Pakistan, India and Iraq.

These are some of the key findings of Mapping the Global Muslim Population: A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World’s Muslim Population, a new study by the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life. The report offers the most up-to-date and fully sourced estimates of the size and distribution of the worldwide Muslim population, including sectarian identity.

Previously published estimates of the size of the global Muslim population have ranged widely, from 1 billion to 1.8 billion.² But these commonly quoted estimates often have appeared without citations to specific sources or explanations of how the figures were generated.

The Pew Forum report is based on the best available data for 232 countries and territories. Pew Forum researchers, in consultation with nearly 50 demographers and social scientists at universities and research centers around the world, acquired and analyzed about 1,500 sources, including census reports, demographic studies and general population surveys, to arrive at these figures — the largest project of its kind to date. (See methodology for more detail.)

The Pew Forum’s estimate of the Shia population (10-13%) is in keeping with previous estimates, which generally have been in the range of 10-15%. Some previous estimates, however, have placed the number of Shias at nearly 20% of the world’s Muslim population.³ Readers should bear in mind that the figures given in this report for the Sunni and Shia populations are less precise than the figures for the overall Muslim population. Data on sectarian affiliation have been infrequently collected or, in many countries, not collected at all. Therefore, the Sunni and Shia numbers reported here are expressed as broad ranges and should be treated as approximate.

These findings on the world Muslim population lay the foundation for a forthcoming study by the Pew Forum, scheduled to be released in 2010, that will estimate growth rates among Muslim populations worldwide and project Muslim populations into the future. The Pew Forum plans to launch a similar study of global Christianity in 2010 as well. The Pew Forum also plans to conduct in-depth public opinion surveys on the intersection of religion and public life around the world, starting with a 19-country survey of sub-Saharan Africa scheduled to be released later this year. These forthcoming studies are part of a larger effort — the Global Religious Futures Project, jointly funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts and the John Templeton Foundation — that aims to increase people’s understanding of religion around the world.

Continue reading the full report online, including a series of interactive demographic maps, or download a complete PDF of the report at pewforum.org.

_{1 For a definition of “territories,” see the methodology.
2 See, for example, CIA World Factbook; Foreign Policy magazine, May 2007; Who Speaks for Islam: What a Billion Muslims Really Think, 2008; Adherents.com; and IslamicPopulation.com.
3 See, for example, IslamicWeb.com; “Shia Muslims in the Middle East,” Council on Foreign Relations, June 2006; and “The Revival of Shia Islam,” Vali Nasr speaking at a Pew Forum event, July 2006.}

_{Data from the Pew Forum’s Spirit and Power: A 10-Country Survey of Pentecostals. The survey was conducted in South Africa from May 11-27, 2006, among 800 respondents. Due to rounding, totals may not sum to 100 and nested figures may not add to the subtotal indicated. Results based on a national probability sample of urban areas.}

Until recently, Kenya was considered something of a success story in a troubled region; now, however, it is consumed by political and ethnic violence following last week’s disputed reelection of President Mwai Kibaki. The unrest has shocked many both inside and outside Kenya who believed the election would confirm the country’s reputation as East Africa’s most stable developing democracy.

As a recent Pew Global Attitudes survey highlighted, this optimism was not unwarranted — before the election, Kenyans were feeling relatively good about the direction of their nation. Moreover, Kenyans were overwhelmingly optimistic about the elections — two-in-three believed they would be conducted fairly.¹

However, as the survey also revealed, Kenyans have long been one of the major African nations most worried about tribal conflicts. Half of Kenyans rated conflict among tribal groups a “very big problem” for their country — the second highest percentage among the 10 African nations included in Pew’s April 2007 poll. Only Ivory Coast and Nigeria — both of which have also experienced considerable ethnic violence in recent years — had similar levels of concern. Obviously, it would appear that, for the moment at least, tribal tensions have trumped the confidence Kenyans held in their electoral system and democratic institutions.

Public’s Mood Had Been Upbeat

Overall, the survey found a relatively upbeat outlook in Kenya, especially compared with survey findings from five years ago. In this year’s poll, 45% said they are satisfied with the country’s direction. While the satisfied still comprise less than a majority, their percentage in the population is a five-fold increase from 2002; it also represents the second-highest level of satisfaction among the African nations surveyed.

Views of the economy have improved even more dramatically. In 2002, only 7% said the country’s economic situation was good, compared with 60% in 2007. And Kenyans are feeling this economic progress in their own lives — 54% say their personal financial situation is better now than it was five years ago. Among the 10 African countries surveyed, only Senegal has enjoyed more progress in personal finances.

Of course, as in much of sub-Saharan Africa, poverty is a serious problem in Kenya, and many of its citizens remain unable to afford life’s basic necessities. Roughly six-in-ten say that within the last year they have been unable to afford health care (62%), clothing (58%) or food (57%) — relatively high levels of deprivation, even when compared with other poor nations in the region.²

Strong Support for Democracy

The 2007 Pew survey found solid support for democratic values and institutions in Kenya (as well as in other sub-Saharan African countries³ ). For instance, Kenyans overwhelmingly express support for the principle of honest multiparty elections — roughly three-in-four (74%) say it is “very important” to live in a country that has such elections.

Majorities also consider it very important to live in a country with freedom of religion (83%), an impartial judiciary (79%), a free press (72%), and free speech (68%). Just under half (46%) also rate living in a country with civilian control of the military very important. A look across all six of these democratic values finds that only Tanzanians demonstrate a higher level of support for democracy among the 10 African publics surveyed.

Prior to the election, Kenyans were generally satisfied with the state of democracy in their country — 72% said they were either very or somewhat satisfied with the way democracy is working in Kenya. Moreover, a substantial majority was optimistic about the coming elections — 67% believed the next presidential election would be conducted fairly, while only 28% thought they would be unfair.

However, more skepticism was apparent among the Luo tribe to which opposition candidate Raila Odinga, the declared loser in last week’s disputed election, belongs. Luos were split almost evenly between those who felt the election would be fair (45%) and those who predicted it would be conducted unfairly (48%). Since the elections, many among the Luo and other tribal groups have accused President Kibaki, who belongs to the Kikuyu tribe, of election fraud. The Kikuyu, the largest and wealthiest among Kenya’s 40-plus tribes, have been politically dominant since Kenya gained independence from Britain in 1963.

Worries About Tribal Conflict

In the 2007 survey, fully half (50%) of adult Kenyans identified tribal conflict as a very big problem in their country — about the same proportion as said so in the 2002 Global Attitudes Survey (52%). An additional 28% identified such conflict as a moderately big problem.

Among other African countries surveyed, only in Ivory Coast, a nation riven by its own ethnic conflicts in recent years, does a higher percentage of the population (56%) characterize tribal/ethnic conflict as a very big problem. In Nigeria, where ethnic differences have also led to bloodshed, nearly half (48%) see them as a major problem.

In Kenya, concern about tribal conflict is above average among members of the Luo tribe who, along with other ethnic groups, have grown restive under the longstanding political dominance of the rival Kikuyus: 54% of Luos call ethnic conflict a very big problem. By contrast, among members of Kibaki’s Kikuyu tribe, 44% call ethnic conflict a major problem.

Notes

¹The questions regarding whether the upcoming elections would be fair and satisfaction with democracy were conducted in conjunction with The New York Times.

²For more on deprivation in African nations and elsewhere, see “A Rising Tide Lifts Mood in the Developing World,” Pew Global Attitudes Project, July 24, 2007.

³For more on attitudes toward democratic values in Africa and elsewhere, see “World Publics Welcome Trade — But Not Immigration,” Pew Global Attitudes Project, October 4, 2007.

The planet is a happier place these days, at least in many parts of the world where incomes are low and life is tough … but economies are improving. In particular, as economic growth has surged in much of Latin America, East Europe and Asia over the past five years, people are expressing greater satisfaction with their personal lives, family incomes and national conditions. The picture is considerably different in most advanced nations, where per capita GDP gains have been less robust and citizen satisfaction has changed little since 2002.

The Pew Global Attitudes Project’s 47-nation survey finds that measures of personal and economic satisfaction remain modest in the developing world when compared with measures for advanced nations, but this gap has narrowed. The increasing contentment in developing nations is clearly correlated with sizable increases in per capita gross domestic product that, in most cases, far outpaced the rate of growth prior to 2002.¹

Publics in Latin America and Eastern Europe – where per capita GDP has risen markedly in recent years – rate their lives and national conditions far more favorably than they did in Pew’s 2002 wave of interviewing. The same is true in China and India, both of which have experienced sizable gains in real income, and where publics are substantially happier today. The pattern is less pronounced, however, elsewhere in Asia. And in sub-Saharan Africa, where per capita GDP has increased in many nations, overall satisfaction measures are up modestly, at best.

In contrast, levels of personal contentment and satisfaction with annual incomes have been much more stable in North America, Western Europe and Japan, where income growth has been less impressive. Also, unlike in the developing world, satisfaction with national conditions is flat or has declined in most advanced nations where trends are available.

In addition to examining how people around the world view their own lives, national conditions, and national and international institutions, the survey also provides a detailed look at specific trends within different regions of the world. Most notably, the survey finds large and growing numbers of Muslims in the Middle East and elsewhere rejecting Islamic extremism.

The percentage of Muslims saying that suicide bombing is justified in the defense of Islam has declined dramatically over the past five years in five of eight countries where trends are available. In Lebanon, for example, just 34% of Muslims say suicide bombings in the defense of Islam are often or sometimes justified; in 2002, 74% expressed this view. However, Palestinians stand out for their broad acceptance of suicide bombing. Seven-in-ten-Palestinians say this tactic is at least sometimes justified.

The regional analyses also shed light on other major issues. For instance, there is broad support for free-market economic policies across Latin America, despite the election in the past decade of leftist leaders such as Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. In Africa, poverty and widespread deprivation have not diminished optimism about the future. And Muslim publics, particularly those in closest proximity to Iraq, express significant concern that the Sunni-Shia divide driving violence in that country is turning into a broader problem worldwide.

Globally, Pew’s 47-nation survey shows a clear linkage between real economic growth and views of national conditions. An analysis of changes between 2002 and 2007 finds a correlation between the percentage growth in per capita GDP and the share of a nation’s citizens who are satisfied with the way things are going in their country, and the proportion giving positive overall economic ratings.

GDP growth also is tied to rising levels of personal satisfaction. The number of people who report making personal progress in their lives is up substantially from 2002 in most countries with rapidly growing economies, and is flat or down in many countries where per capita GDP has been relatively stagnant. The same is generally true with measures of overall quality of life and satisfaction with household income. But changes in GDP are not related to all aspects of people’s lives. Other measures of personal contentment, such as job satisfaction or happiness with family life, show no correlation with economic growth.

In spite of the economic gains across a broad swath of developing and emerging economies, citizens of rich countries remain far happier and more satisfied than those in poorer nations. In addition, large percentages in many developing countries – even in some where the gains in contentment have been the greatest – report they have not been able to afford food, clothing, and medical care over the past 12 months.

Among the populations of the seven Latin American nations surveyed, no fewer than a quarter (in Argentina) and as many as six-in-ten (in Bolivia and Peru) say there have been times in the past year when they have been unable to afford food. These figures are comparable in the 10 countries surveyed in Africa; in developing countries throughout Asia and the Middle East; as well as in most of the East European nations surveyed. This compares with 16% in the United States, and even fewer in Canada, Japan, and most of Western Europe.

Rising per capita GDP appears to have had only a modest impact in Africa compared with other parts of the developing world. In absolute terms, Africans remain relatively unhappy with their lives and living conditions. This is the case even in countries like Nigeria, where per capita GDP has increased by 26% over the past five years. Only about a third of Nigerians express a high level of satisfaction with their lives, which is not significantly different from 2002.

Yet as was the case in previous Global Attitudes surveys, more people in Africa than in the other regions surveyed express the view that their lives will be better five years from now. In addition, majorities in most African nations say that when children in their countries grow up they will be better off than people are today. The belief that life will be better for the next generation also is widespread in other poor and emerging countries – notably, 86% of Chinese respondents in the Pew survey look ahead to a better life for their country’s children.

Opinions about the prospects for the next generation are much more negative in many advanced countries. Fully 80% of the French say that when their country’s children grow up, they will be worse off than people are today. Smaller but substantial majorities in Germany, Japan, Italy, Great Britain, the United States and Canada also are pessimists regarding the next generation’s overall prospects.

While the new poll finds dramatic changes in many countries in how people view their lives and financial well-being, evaluations of work and family life have remained more or less unchanged. As in 2002, more people express satisfaction with their family lives than with their jobs or incomes. And as was the case five years ago, satisfaction with family life continues to be greater in advanced nations – especially in North America – than in most developing countries.

Dissatisfaction with family life is relatively high in several African countries, especially Tanzania and Uganda. In both countries, about as many people say they are dissatisfied with the family life as say they are satisfied – the only countries surveyed where this is the case.

For the most part, job satisfaction continues to be greater than satisfaction with family income, even though the latter has risen over the past five years. Among advanced nations, worker satisfaction is greatest in Sweden, the United States and Canada; more than four-in-ten in these countries say they are very satisfied with their jobs.

Among developing nations, workers in Kuwait and India voice the most contentment with their jobs. Job satisfaction is generally low in the African countries surveyed. In addition, 66% of Jordanian workers say they are dissatisfied with their jobs, the highest of any public surveyed.

Views of National Conditions, Governments

Trends in opinions about the course of one’s country are as closely correlated with changing economic fortunes as are people’s views of their own lives. In Latin America, citizens in Argentina, Venezuela and Bolivia express far greater satisfaction with national conditions than they did five years ago, when much of the region was mired in a severe financial crisis. And in Argentina, Venezuela and Peru, robust economic growth has been accompanied by a sharp rise in positive views of national governments.

In Western Europe, the publics in Sweden and Spain express broad satisfaction with national conditions, as well as with their governments and current leaders. In contrast, people in France and Italy, which have experienced little growth since 2002, are critical of their nation’s course and their governments. In Eastern Europe, the publics in Russia and Slovakia – where per capita GDP has shown impressive gains – are happier with the course of their country and express more satisfaction with national leaders than they did five years ago.

Among surveyed countries, China has achieved by far the greatest gains in per capita income; per capita GDP has increased 58% since 2002. The Chinese also express much more satisfaction with national conditions than they did in 2002 (83% now vs. 48% then). The Chinese also give near universal support for the national government – fully 89% say the national government has a very good or somewhat good influence on the way things are going in the country.²

The Japanese are more positive about their country’s government and leadership than in 2002, but they continue to be largely critical of their country’s course. In India, by contrast, more people are satisfied with the state of their country, though evaluations of the government and national leadership have remained fairly stable.

Turkey and Jordan have experienced strong economic growth since 2002; on balance, more people in these countries express positive views of their national governments than negative opinions. The Palestinians and Lebanese almost universally deplore the way things are going – just 5% of Palestinians and 6% of Lebanese express satisfaction with conditions – but they express a fair degree of support for their governments and leaders.

Africans tend to express dissatisfaction with national conditions but endorse their national governments. Nigerians are the exception in expressing divided opinions of their government and new leader, despite strong economic trends over the past five years.

While economic growth is linked with more favorable views of one’s national government, the survey points to several important exceptions to this pattern. For example, Great Britain and the United States have experienced fairly strong economic growth since 2002 when compared with other advanced countries, yet in both countries positive views of the government have declined significantly. And in the Czech Republic, the percent saying that the government is having a good influence on national conditions has fallen from 57% in 2002 to 36% in the new survey, despite robust growth in that country.

Dwindling Muslim Support for Terrorism

Even as many people around the world express more positive views of their lives and countries than they did five years ago, opinions about regional issues and concerns are a mix of good and bad news.

Among the most striking trends in predominantly Muslim nations is the continuing decline in the number saying that suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilians are justifiable in the defense of Islam. In Lebanon, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia, the proportion of Muslims who view suicide bombing and other attacks against civilians as being often or sometimes justified has declined by half or more over the past five years.

Wide majorities say such attacks are, at most, rarely acceptable. However, this is decidedly not the case in the Palestinian territories. Fully 70% of Palestinians believe that suicide bombings against civilians can be often or sometimes justified, a position starkly at odds with Muslims in other Middle Eastern, Asian, and African nations.

The decreasing acceptance of extremism among Muslims also is reflected in declining support for Osama bin Laden. Since 2003, Muslim confidence in bin Laden to do the right thing in world affairs has fallen; in Jordan, just 20% express a lot or some confidence in bin Laden, down from 56% four years ago. Yet confidence in bin Laden in the Palestinian territories, while lower than it was in 2003, remains relatively high (57%).

Opinion about Hezbollah and Hamas varies among Muslim publics. Views of both groups are favorable among most predominantly Muslim countries in the Middle East and Asia. And Palestinians have strongly positive opinions of both militant groups. But majorities in Turkey have negative impressions of both Hezbollah and Hamas.

The survey also finds that, amid continuing sectarian strife in Iraq, there is broad concern among the Muslim publics surveyed that tensions between Sunnis and Shia are not limited to that country. Nearly nine-in-ten Lebanese (88%), and solid majorities in Kuwait (73%) and Pakistan (67%), say Sunni-Shia tensions are a growing problem for the Muslim world, and are not limited to Iraq.

Africa: Bleak Present, Brighter Future

Africa remains a continent of crushing poverty, widespread deprivation – and substantial, if not universal, optimism. Majorities in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania say there have been times in the past year they have been unable to afford food. Even in South Africa, widely viewed as having Africa’s most advanced economy, 49% say they have gone without food in the past year for lack of money. Moreover, relatively large numbers throughout Africa say they have lacked money for other basic necessities – health care and clothing.

The African publics surveyed tend to express low levels of personal satisfaction, particularly when compared with people in other regions. In no African country do as many as four-in-ten rate their current lives as seven or higher on a scale of zero to 10. However, majorities in nine of 10 African countries surveyed say they believe their lives will be better five years from now than they are today.

The U.S. image is much stronger in Africa than in other regions of the world. This is reflected in the fact that the United States tops the list of dependable allies in eight of 10 African countries surveyed. Yet the U.S. is widely seen as making, at most, a minor effort to address the humanitarian crisis in the Darfur region of Sudan. Most Africans say the United Nations or the African Union is doing the most to stop the violence in Darfur.

The survey also finds that, despite overwhelming concern about the spread of AIDS and other infectious diseases throughout Africa, fewer than 30% in every country surveyed say they have taken an HIV test. In South Africa, where an estimated 5.5 million people are infected with HIV according to UNAIDS data, just 20% say they have been tested for the virus. However, majorities in South Africa and the other African countries surveyed (except for Mali) say they would be willing to take an HIV test.

A series of in-depth questions asked in Africa – including measures of the state of democracy in African countries and opinions about international media coverage of the region – are the result of a partnership between the Pew Global Attitudes Project and The New York Times. In addition, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation generously provided funding for the surveying in Africa, and in developing nations in other parts of the world.

Latin America: More Favorable Toward Free Markets

Latin America’s improved economic climate is seen in increasingly positive impressions of national conditions and governments. As might be expected, publics in Latin America also are much more upbeat about their nations’ economies than they were five years ago.

In 2002, shortly after the onset of a financial crisis that caused Argentina to default and cost many people their life savings, virtually no Argentines gave the economy a positive rating (1%); today, 45% see the economy as very good or somewhat good. A similar, though less dramatic, pattern is seen in other countries in the region: in Bolivia, positive views of the economy have more than tripled (from 18% to 58%); in Peru they have nearly tripled; and in Venezuela and Brazil positive impressions of the economy have doubled or more. In Mexico, where positive views of the economy were highest in 2002 (at 31%), 51% now say the economy is at least somewhat good.

Left-leaning heads of state have been elected in several Latin American countries over the past decade. However, the new survey finds Latin American respondents generally believe that people are better off in a free market economy, even though some people are rich and some are poor. Many respondents in the poll also expressed support for a strong government social safety net to help people who cannot help themselves.

Global Publics Divided about Their Nation’s Allies

The polling also underscores the lack of international consensus about the world order reported in this year’s first Global Attitudes report. Notably, the United States is named about as often as a close ally as it is named the biggest threat by respondents in the 47-nation survey. No other single country or international institution was as frequently cited as a top ally or threat, including Iran. (For a more detailed analysis of opinions about the United States and other world powers, see “Global Unease with Major World Powers,” released June 27).

The United States is singled out as a close ally by people in many African nations and in Israel and Kuwait, where the United States remains popular. The publics of two of America’s closest allies, Great Britain and Canada, also regard the United States as their closest ally, despite their criticism of U.S. foreign policies.

By contrast, the publics in many predominately Muslim countries, Latin America, and China see the United States as their greatest potential threat. For example, two-thirds of Chinese (66%) and nearly as many in Turkey and Pakistan (64% each), name the United States as the country that poses the greatest threat to their own country in the future. Majorities in Venezuela (54%) and Argentina (52%) also view the United States as a potential threat.

Top National Problems

Crime, political corruption, drugs, the spread of HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases, and pollution are mentioned most frequently as top national problems by the citizens of the 47 countries surveyed. But terrorism, the poor quality of drinking water, and religious/ethnic conflict also are high on the problems list. The global findings reveal wide variations in how people in different parts of the world size up the top national problems.

Compared with 2002, somewhat fewer people globally view most of the issues tested as very big national problems. The exceptions are concerns about the poor quality of drinking water and immigration, which remain about as widespread as five years ago.

Crime is clearly the dominant issue in Latin America and in many Asian and African countries. Roughly eight-in-ten citizens in several South American countries – including Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru – cite crime as a very big problem. Comparably high percentages of Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Malaysians rate crime as a very big problem. In Africa, worry about crime is near universal in South Africa and quite substantial in Nigeria and the Ivory Coast.

Strong concern about illegal drugs runs parallel to worry about crime in these regions of the world and countries. But the publics in several nations – including the United States and Great Britain – voice more worry about drugs than about crime.

Corrupt political leaders rate as a major concern in a diverse group of Middle Eastern countries – Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and Israel. But the poll finds that worry about political corruption is most widespread in Nigeria and the Czech Republic.

The spread of HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases is the dominant national concern throughout Africa. In addition, majorities in every Latin American country surveyed – including 79% in Peru – see the spread of infectious diseases as a very big problem.

Concerns about pollution are evident in all parts of the world. But mentions are most frequent in Italy, Peru and India, where about eight-in-ten or more view pollution as a very big problem for their countries. Regionally, worries about pollution are lowest in Africa. In addition, fewer Americans rate pollution as a top national problem than do people in other economically advanced countries.

Poor quality schools are of greater concern in Latin American and African countries than in other regions. By contrast, concerns over poor quality schools are very low in Malaysia – where just 11% see this as a very big national problem – and Sweden (13%). The Swedes express far less concern over most of the problems tested than do the other publics surveyed.

Italians voice the greatest concern about immigration of any of the publics in the 47-nation survey. In the developing world, South Africans and the Lebanese frequently cite immigration as a very big problem. By contrast, roughly half of the residents of Pakistan, Bolivia and Mexico say that emigration – people leaving their country for jobs elsewhere – is a very big problem. For Lebanon and Pakistan, in particular, both emigration and immigration rate as frequently cited national problems.

Additional commentary on the relationship between economic growth and measures of personal contentment, by Bruce Stokes, international economics columnist for the National Journal

Notes

¹Data on trends in gross domestic product (GDP) from IMF World Economic Outlook.

²It was not possible to ask Chinese respondents to express opinions about President Hu Jintao.

In many countries around the globe, gay and lesbian couples are seeking the right to marry or enter into other legally recognized forms of domestic partnerships. The legal definition of marriage is in flux, particularly in the developed world, as governments re-examine what long seemed to be a well-established aspect of civil law.

Public Opinion

A 2007 Pew Research Center survey found that while a majority of Americans (55%) oppose same-sex marriage, a sizable minority (37%) favor it, figures that have varied only slightly since 2001. A 2006 Pew survey also found that a majority of Americans (54%) favor allowing civil unions, up from 45% in 2003.

Source: Pew Research Center, Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes: 1987-2007, March 22, 2007

Source: Pew Research Center, Pragmatic Americans Liberal and Conservative on Social Issues, August 3, 2006

A study released by the European Commission in 2006 found that a plurality of people in the European Union (49%) oppose gay marriage. Yet, as in the United States, the public remains divided, with 44% favoring same-sex marriage. Approval rates in individual countries vary greatly. In socially progressive Holland, for instance, 82% of all adults favor allowing same-sex marriage; in heavily Roman Catholic Poland, only 17% of adults support gay marriage.

<span >“Homosexual marriage should be allowed throughout Europe…”Percent “Agree”

Source: European Commission, Eurobarometer 66, Public Opinion in the European Union, December 2006

While public debate in many countries centers on the legal recognition of same-sex unions, in other parts of the world, the question is the acceptability of homosexuality itself. A 2002 Pew Global Attitudes survey found that strong majorities of the people polled in the African and Middle Eastern countries surveyed do not view homosexuality as a socially acceptable way of life. A 2006 report by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life similarly found that in the African and Asian nations surveyed, such as Nigeria and South Korea, at least half of the public polled believe homosexuality can never be justified.

Same-Sex Marriage Over Time

The extension of legal rights to same-sex couples began in 1989 when Denmark created “registered partnerships” that extended property and inheritance rights to same-sex couples. This marked the first time a national government guaranteed gay and lesbian households not only protection from harassment but also some of the legal rights long held by heterosexual married couples. Norway took similar action in 1993, followed by Sweden in 1995 and Iceland in 1996; other European countries followed suit in subsequent years. Other nations in Europe, South America, Australia and elsewhere expanded the rights of same-sex couples by permitting legal statuses that granted the couples some legal rights without using the term “marriage,” such as civil unions, civil partnerships or domestic partnerships.

The Netherlands was the first country to legalize same-sex marriage. In December 2000, the Dutch parliament passed legislation that gave same-sex couples the right to marry, divorce and adopt children. On April 1, 2001, the mayor of Amsterdam officiated at the ceremonies of the first four gay couples to be married. In the ensuing six years, Belgium (2003), Spain (2005), Canada (2005) and South Africa (2006) have followed the Netherlands’ lead and legalized same-sex marriage.

In 1998, the U.S. Congress passed the Defense of Marriage Act, which defined marriage as the union of a man and a woman for purposes of federal law. The statute also declared that states were not required to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states. In 2004, Massachusetts became the first, and so far only, state to allow same-sex marriages, and only for in-state residents. Connecticut, New Jersey and Vermont recognize civil unions, and New Hampshire will do so beginning in 2008. Court decisions on the constitutionality of denying same-sex marriage are expected this year in California, Connecticut and Maryland.

New legislation related to same-sex relations is introduced somewhere in the world almost every month. In November 2006, Mexico City became the first of Mexico’s regional governments to recognize same-sex civil unions. That same month, Israel, which has offered common law marriage to homosexuals since 1994, legally recognized same-sex marriages performed in other countries as full marriages in Israel. In Uruguay, the parliament is debating whether to allow civil unions for same-sex couples who have lived together for at least five years.

Undoubtedly, these and other debates have been influenced by the countries that have already given same-sex couples the right to marry. The following is a short summary of the history and politics of – and public reaction toward – same-sex marriage in the five nations that currently allow the practice.

The Netherlands

The Dutch parliament passed its landmark bill legalizing same-sex marriage in 2000 by roughly a three-to-one margin. The legislation altered a single sentence in the civil marriage statute, which now reads, “A marriage can be contracted by two people of different or the same sex.”

The only opposition in parliament came from the Christian Democratic Party, which at the time was not part of the governing coalition. After the law went into effect, the Protestant Church of the Netherlands, representing about 12% of the country’s population, announced that individual congregations could decide whether to conduct same-sex ceremonies. Although Muslim and conservative Christian groups continue to oppose the legislation, as well as the practice of homosexuality itself, same-sex marriage is widely accepted by the Dutch public and, to many, is a nonissue.

About 2,400 same-sex couples married in the Netherlands within nine months of the marriage law going into effect, according to government figures. Since then, the number of same-sex marriages has declined annually from 1,800 in 2002 to 1,100 in 2005.

Belgium

Beginning in 1998, the Belgian parliament offered limited rights to same-sex couples by creating registered partnerships. Same-sex couples could register with a city clerk and formally assume joint responsibility for a household. Five years later, in January 2003, parliament legalized same-sex marriage, giving gay and lesbian couples the same tax and inheritance rights as heterosexual couples.

Support for the law came from both the Flemish-speaking north and the French-speaking south, and it generated surprisingly little controversy across the country. The long-dominant Christian Democratic Party, traditionally allied with the Roman Catholic Church, was out of power when parliament passed the measure.The original law only recognized the marriages of Belgian same-sex couples and couples from other countries where same-sex marriage was legal. Those provisions were broadened in 2004, however, to recognize any same-sex marriage as long as one member of the couple had lived in Belgium for at least three months. In 2006, parliament also granted same-sex partners the right to adopt children.

Almost 2,500 same-sex couples had married in Belgium as of July 2005.

Spain

A closely divided parliament legalized same-sex marriage in 2005, guaranteeing identical rights to all married couples regardless of sexual orientation. The new measure added brief, relatively simple language to the existing marriage statute: “Marriage will have the same requirements and results when the two people entering into the contract are of the same sex or of different sexes.”

Vatican officials as well as the Spanish Bishops Conference strongly criticized the law, and large, competing crowds demonstrated in Madrid for and against the measure. After the law went into effect, the country’s constitutional court rejected challenges from two municipal court judges who had refused marriage licenses to same-sex couples. The high court ruled that the lower court judges lacked legal standing to bring suit.

According to a survey by Instituto Opina, a private polling organization, one day before passage of the bill, approximately 62% of the public favored the legislation. Nine months later, a second poll showed 61% of the public supporting the measure.

About 1,000 same-sex couples had married in Spain as of March 2006. The first same-sex divorce was granted in June 2006.

Canada

Same-sex couples gained most of the legal benefits of marriage in 1999 when federal and provincial governments extended “common law” marriages to gay and lesbian couples. Through a series of court cases beginning in 2003, same-sex marriage gradually became legal in nine of the country’s 13 provinces and territories. In 2005, Parliament passed legislation making same-sex marriage legal nationwide. In 2006 lawmakers defeated an effort by the ruling Conservative Party to reconsider the issue, leaving the law unchanged.

A Canadian Broadcasting Corporation survey conducted three months before Parliament acted in 2005 found that 52% of Canadians opposed the legislation. But one month after passage of the law, 55% favored keeping it on the books. That number stood at 58% in December 2006.

South Africa

The South African parliament legalized same-sex marriage in November 2006, one year after the country’s highest court ruled that the existing, more restrictive marriage laws violated the constitution’s guarantee of equal rights. The new measure passed by a margin of greater than five-to-one, with support coming from both the governing African National Congress as well as the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance. The traditional monarch of the Zulu people, who account for about one-fifth of the country’s population, maintains that homosexuality is morally wrong.

The law allows for religious institutions and civil officers to refuse to conduct same-sex marriage ceremonies, a provision that critics claim violates the rights of same-sex couples under the constitution.

For more on issues at the nexus of religion and public life, visit pewforum.org

A Muslim man walks past a church gate in Lagos, Nigeria. (AP Images)

If Nigeria’s presidential election takes place as scheduled on April 21, it will mark the first transfer of power from one elected civilian president to another in the country considered the key to stability for all of West Africa. But the campaign leading up to it is already serving as a reminder of the sharp Christian-Muslim divide in Africa’s most populous country.

Nigerians will be choosing the successor to President Olusegun Obasanjo, a born-again Christian who has served two four-year terms. While Obasanjo’s eight years as president symbolized an era of Christian control, even before he took office in 1999 political leaders began talking of alternating the presidency between the country’s largely Christian south and predominately Muslim north. After considerable infighting and the disqualification of several would-be contenders, all of the country’s major political parties have now chosen Muslims as their candidates. (A rundown of the three leading candidates)

Nigeria’s population of some 140 million is divided nearly equally between Christians and Muslims. The importance of that divide is well illustrated by the fact that religion — not nationality — is the way in which most Nigerians choose to identify themselves. In a May-June 2006 survey conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, 76% of Christians say that religion is more important to them than their identity as Africans, Nigerians or members of an ethnic group. Among Muslims, the number naming religion as the most important factor is even higher (91%).¹

The appetite for major political change, however, extends across the religious spectrum. Large majorities of both the country’s Christians (94%) and Muslims (97%) say they are dissatisfied with conditions, and the discontent extends to virtually every major secular institution. Large majorities of both groups say they trust the national government only a little or not at all (86% of Christians, 84% of Muslims). These strongly negative opinions extend to the military (80% of Christians trust it only a little or not at all, as do 68% of Muslims) and city and local government.

Both groups also endorse many of the underpinnings of democracy. A majority of the country’s Christians — and an even larger majority of its Muslims — say it is important that elections be held regularly with a choice of at least two political parties.

Similarly both groups are essentially unanimous in agreeing that it is important that the judicial system treat everyone in the same way and that people be able to practice their religion freely.

Both groups, however, have mixed feelings about the desirability of a government with greater political participation by ordinary people. Christians favor participatory government by a slight majority but Muslims are evenly divided, with essentially the same percentage preferring a leader with a strong hand as favor government by the people.

Still, while both Christians and Muslims list many of the same issues in identifying the major problems facing their country, the solutions favored by the two groups are heavily colored by their respective religious affiliations. Large majorities of both groups, for example, identify corrupt political leaders as a problem (86% of Christians, 90% of Muslims). A majority of Christians (72%), however, say the country’s leaders should have strong Christian beliefs; an even larger majority of Muslims (77%) say the leadership should have strong Islamic beliefs.

Most of the country’s Muslims (52%) also believe the government should take steps to make Nigeria an Islamic country. A significant minority of Christians (42%) say the government should make the country overtly Christian.

Underlying these sharply divergent desires is the deep distrust each group feels toward the other: Most of the country’s Christians (62%) say they trust people from other religions only a little or not at all. A similar percentage of Nigeria’s Muslims (61%) say they trust people of other religions little or not at all.

These differences extend to opinions about world affairs, including views of the United States and its policies, as shown by a Pew Global Attitudes Project poll conducted in spring 2006. While a large majority of Nigeria’s Christians (89%) have a favorable opinion of the United States, most Muslims (67%) have an unfavorable opinion. Most Nigerian Christians say they favor U.S.-led efforts against terrorism; most Nigerian Muslims say they oppose those efforts. Those divisions carry over into opinions about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Many more of Nigeria’s Christians (47%) than Muslims (10%) say they favor Israel; many more Muslims than Christians say they favor the Palestinians.

Religion and religious conflict have long been part of Nigerian politics and public life. In the 1950s, while Nigeria remained under British rule, Islamic personal law, Sharia, was incorporated into the country’s legal system. In the late 1960s, religion was one factor in the internal conflict that eventually erupted into the Biafra war (1967-1970), which killed as many as 600,000 people.

Since the mid-1980s, however, tension between Christians and Muslims has become an even more consistent feature of Nigerian politics. In 1986, the country’s then Muslim military ruler made Nigeria a member of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, provoking an immediate outcry from many Christians, who objected to the implication that Nigeria was an officially Islamic country. In response, Nigerian Christians began to push the government to establish formal diplomatic relations with the state of Israel, which occurred in the early 1990s.

During President Obasanjo’s rule, Christian-Muslim tensions have deepened. Shortly after Obasanjo took office in 1999, states in the country’s northern half began to apply Sharia to criminal cases, provoking considerable insecurity and hostility on the part of Christians. Twelve states in the predominately Muslim north have established some form of Sharia. At the same time, many Christian churches, including independent evangelical and pentecostal churches as well as mainline denominations such as the Catholic and Anglican churches, have stepped up evangelistic and missionary efforts in Nigeria’s middle and northern states, further increasing tensions. Since 2001, incidents of Christian-Muslim violence have become both more frequent and bloodier. (For an historical overview of Nigeria’s religious groups see Historical Overview of Pentecostalism in Nigeria.)

Of course, religion is not the only divisive factor operating in Nigeria. The country’s oil wealth, which accounts for about three-quarters of the government’s revenues, is a potent fuel for both contention and corruption. Although the country’s oil earnings total more than $500 billion, more than a third of the population lives in what the World Bank terms “extreme poverty.” Most of the oil comes from the Niger delta, in the country’s south. In recent years, militias there have kidnapped foreign oil workers, attacked pipelines and engaged in battles with soldiers and police. Oil also accounts for part of Nigeria’s importance to the United States. Nigeria supplies about 9% of American crude imports, and steady production depends in part on political stability.

Still, whoever wins the presidential election, religious faith is likely to continue to exert a powerful influence on the country’s public life. It will continue to do so for as long as Nigeria’s people say they are Christians or Muslims first, Nigerians second.

Nigeria’s Presidential Election: Leading Candidates

Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo (left) and Umaru Yar’Adua (center) after Yar’Adua’s victory in the PDP primary. (AP Images)

In Nigeria’s presidential election campaign, the major issues include disputes between the country’s president and vice-president over alleged corruption and questions about the health of the candidate nominated by the president’s own, dominant party. The election is scheduled to take place April 21. Major candidates include:

Umaru Yar’Adua – After failing to persuade parliament to change the country’s constitution to allow him to run for a third presidential term himself, President Olusegun Obasanjo, endorsed Yar’Adua as the candidate of the president’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which also governs a majority of the country’s 36 states. A government commission meanwhile accused other potential contenders within the party of corruption, disqualifying them from running for president.

Yar’Adua, a Muslim, is governor of the northern state of Katsina, a largely rural area. In 2000, he formally adopted Muslim law, or Sharia, for the state’s courts, while assuring non-Muslims that the government would guarantee their security. A former chemistry teacher, he is one of only a handful of governors not identified as being under investigation for alleged corruption.

The major issue in his campaign is, instead, his health. In early March, the Nigerian press reported rumors that Yar’Adua, 56, had died or that the party was about to replace him as its candidate because of medical problems. Yar’Adua responded by addressing a party rally by telephone, saying he had suffered shortness of breath and was in Germany for what he said were several days of medical tests. He has since resumed campaigning.

His vice-presidential running mate, as is the case with the other major candidates, is a Christian.

Atiku Abubakar – Nigeria’s vice-president since 1999. Abubakar is a Muslim from the northeastern state of Adamawa. In 2000, he helped negotiate with five northern governors to delay enforcement of Sharia in their states after riots erupted over the issue.

Abubakar opposed Obasanjo’s efforts to amend the constitution to allow him to run for a third presidential term, and the tensions between them increased as Abubakar made clear his intentions of running for president himself. Abubakar was a co-founder of the PDP but was suspended from the party after Obasanjo accused him of corruption. Obasanjo unsuccessfully sought to have him removed as vice-president. Abubakar is now the candidate of the Action Congress party.

In Feb. 2007, a parliamentary commission alleged that Abubakar had diverted more than $125 million in public funds. He denied the allegations, and in turn accused Obasanjo of corruption. Nigeria’s Independent National Election Commission ruled in mid- March that Abubakar could not run because of the allegations, but a Nigerian court declared that the commisison did not have authority to disqualify him. It is not yet clear whether his name will appear on the ballot.

Muhammadu Buhari – As an army general, Buhari helped overthrow Nigeria’s civilian leadership at the end of 1983 and led the country until he himself was overthrown in a military coup in August 1985. A Muslim, Buhari lost to Obasanjo in the 2003 presidential election. Buhari, who like Yar’Adua is from the northern state of Katsina, is the candidate of the All Nigeria’s People Party.

As the country’s military ruler, Buhari won public support for combating corruption. But he also sought to intimidate and punish critics of the regime, allowing authorities to detain people indefinitely without charge and to jail journalists for criticism of government policies.

Buhari later supported the adoption of Sharia in Nigeria’s north. He has accused Obasanjo of manipulating corruption allegations against others to disqualify would-be candidates for governorships and the presidency.

Notes

¹Religious affiliation and the relative size of the Muslim and Christian populations in Nigeria remain such sensitive issues that the government chose not to ask about religion in the national census conducted in 2006, the first in 15 years. In this report, data on religious affiliation is drawn from the 2003 Demographic and Health Survey of Nigeria.