Getting It Wrong
Several factors deserve exploration, but one should not ignore the possibility of the longstanding pattern of pre-election polls overstating support for black candidates among white voters, particularly white voters who are poor.
Primary Problems: How Exit Pollsters Plan to Cope with a Super-Crowded Election Season
From holiday distractions to winter weather, the people who will be measuring voters’ preferences in primaries and caucuses around the nation will be dealing with unprecedented problems. Here’s how they plan to do it.
“Frequently Asked Questions” about Pew’s Muslim American Survey
A recent report, “Muslim Americans: Middle Class and Mostly Mainstream,” attracted a great deal of attention but also raised a number of questions about the research. Here are answers to some of the most frequently asked questions.
What’s Missing from National RDD Surveys? The Impact of the Growing Cell-Only Population
The number of cell-phone-only households has continued to grow — 12.8% of all households by the end of 2006, according to the National Health Interview Survey. While the noncoverage problem is currently not damaging estimates for the entire population, a study finds evidence that it does create biased estimates on certain variables for young adults, 25% of whom are cell-only.
How Serious Is Polling’s Cell-Only Problem?
The landline-less are different from regular telephone users in many of their opinions and their numbers are growing fast. Can survey researchers meet this challenge?
How Reliable Are the Early Presidential Polls?
As the number of declared presidential candidates grows, followers of early poll readings should bear in mind some caveats. Early frontrunners for the Republican nomination in most of the past seven open contests have gone on to win the nomination, but this year there are two GOP frontrunners instead of one clear leader. On the Democratic side, even when there is a clear frontrunner as there is this year with Sen. Hillary Clinton, the early polls have been less reliable in predicting who will capture the nomination.
Are National Polls Reliable Predictors of Midterm Elections?
National elections are the high season for pollsters and with Election Day now less than two weeks away, new polls on the fight for Congress are being released nearly every day. Commonly, pollsters use something called the “generic ballot” to assess the state of the congressional race. Just how accurate is the “generic ballot” in predicting election results?
Cell-Only Voters Not Very Different
Political pollsters continue to cast a wary eye on the growing number of Americans who use only a cell phone and have no landline. The Pew Research Center estimates that this group now constitutes one-in-ten adults. But three Pew surveys of cell-only Americans this year have found that their absence from landline surveys is not creating a measurable bias in the bottom-line findings.
Lenski on Exit Polls in the Coming Elections
In an exclusive interview, Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research reflects on conducting his first election day survey following the death of his former partner, exit poll pioneer Warren Mitofsky. He also reveals steps that will be taken to avoid problems associated with the 2004 poll.
The Cell Phone Challenge to Polling
While Americans who rely solely on a cell phone for telephone service differ in their demographics from land-line subscribers, a new study finds that so far the results obtained by surveys that exclude cell-only users are not significantly affected.