Why 2016 election polls missed their mark
There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump’s level of support.
Civic Engagement Strongly Tied to Local News Habits
Americans who are highly attached to their communities and who always vote in local elections stand out for displaying stronger local news habits than those less engaged.
Just how does the general election exit poll work, anyway?
The firm that runs the presidential exit poll expects to interview about 100,000 voters across the country by the time the polls close on election night.
Oversampling is used to study small groups, not bias poll results
As oversampling and its possible effect on presidential polls are spotlighted ahead of Election Day, learn more about this practice and how pollsters adjust for it.
Putting post-debate ‘flash polls’ into perspective
In the aftermath of presidential debates, there is intense interest in gauging “who won.” How can we know the answer to that question?
The Racial Confidence Gap in Police Performance
Blacks and whites in the U.S. disagree over police performance and differ on the causes of fatal encounters between blacks and police.
Measuring illegal immigration: How Pew Research Center counts unauthorized immigrants in the U.S.
Jeffrey S. Passel, senior demographer, on the research techniques used to derive the unauthorized immigrant population estimate in the U.S. and the challenges involved.
5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls
Some of the better-known statistical rules of thumb that a smart consumer might think apply in polls are more nuanced than they seem. In other words, as is so often the case in life, it’s complicated.
Text Message Notification for Web Surveys
By Kyley McGeeney and H. Yanna Yan Text messaging has grown in popularity in recent years, leading survey researchers to explore ways texts might be used as tools in the public opinion research process. In the U.S., at least, researchers must obtain consent from respondents before they are permitted to send an automated text. This […]
Flashpoints in Polling
Many people wonder: Can polls be trusted? The following essay contains a big-picture review of the state of polling, organized around a number of key areas.