In the next several weeks the Supreme Court is expected to rule on the constitutionality of the requirement that several states, mostly in the South, get “pre-clearance” from the Justice Department before they make any changes to their election laws. The requirement was part of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which was an emergency measure to outlaw the profound racial discrimination that was disenfranchising African-Americans.

The justices won’t necessarily find a rationale for their decision based on current election polling data. Nevertheless, the experience of voters in recent elections will no doubt be illuminating to the justices, and to all Americans who are concerned with voting rights.

In the past three presidential elections, very few Americans reported having problems or difficulties voting according to Pew Research Center surveys. In its Nov. 8-12 poll in 2012, just 4% of whites answered yes to the question: “Did you have any problems or difficulties voting this year, or not.” Only 2% of African-Americans responded affirmatively.

Four years earlier, the comparable figures were 3% for whites and 4% for blacks, and in 2004, 5% and 3% respectively.

There were accusations leveled during the 2012 presidential campaign that black turnout was being discouraged in Florida and other key states by voter ID laws or attempts at deception or intimidation. Given these charges, Pew went a step further in the 2012 post-election survey than in previous surveys by asking voters if they knew anyone who tried to vote but could not. Blacks more often said they did than whites—14% versus 9%. But a follow-up question, “Why were those people not able to vote?” revealed that this difference was entirely accounted for by the fact that unlike whites, 6% of blacks reported knowing felons who tried to vote but could not.

Continue reading in The Wall Street Journal

Andrew Kohut is the founding director of the Pew Research Center.

That report projected the racial and ethnic makeup of the U.S. population through 2060. If you combine key numbers from those two Census Bureau reports into a single chart, as we’ve done below, you’ll get a feel for a political and demographic drama that’s going unfold over the next half century.

And if you’re a Republican thinking of running for president one day, you may be a bit concerned.

The seven columns on the left side of the chart show how the white share of the vote for president has steadily declined over the past quarter century. The two columns on the right show the racial composition of the population now and in 2060, as projected by the Census Bureau.

A couple of patterns stand out. First, whites were 74% of voters last year at a time when they were just 63% of the population. This racial turnout gap is driven by the fact that a disproportionate share of non-whites are either too young to vote, not eligible to vote (because they’re not citizens), or just don’t vote. All of these factors could change over time.

Second, if we look at the 2060 projections, we can see that there’s a lot more diversity yet to come. The Census Bureau makes its projections based on an analysis of fertility rates, mortality rates and immigration trends. They’re not set in stone. Things change. But they give a sense of the general direction of things. And many of these future demographics are already a reality—for example,  about half of newborns in 2010 were non-white.

In 2012, Mitt Romney captured just 17% of the non-white vote overall, according to the national exit poll, including 6% of the black vote, 27% of the Hispanic vote and 26% of the Asian-American vote.  Unless future Republican presidential candidates do better with these groups, the electoral math will keep getting more difficult for the GOP.

The report on the racial and ethnic breakdown of voters in 2012 released Wednesday by the Census Bureau attracted lots of well-deserved attention. But for readers of political tea-leaves, a report the bureau issued last December tells an even more compelling story.

That report projected the racial and ethnic makeup of the U.S. population through 2060. If you combine key numbers from those two Census Bureau reports into a single chart, as we’ve done below, you’ll get a feel for a political and demographic drama that’s going unfold over the next half century.

And if you’re a Republican thinking of running for president one day, you may be a bit concerned.

The seven columns on the left side of the chart show how the white share of the vote for president has steadily declined over the past quarter century. The two columns on the right show the racial composition of the population now and in 2060, as projected by the Census Bureau.

A couple of patterns stand out. First, whites were 74% of voters last year at a time when they were just 63% of the population. This racial turnout gap is driven by the fact that a disproportionate share of non-whites are either too young to vote, not eligible to vote (because they’re not citizens), or just don’t vote. All of these factors could change over time.

Second, if we look at the 2060 projections, we can see that there’s a lot more diversity yet to come. The Census Bureau makes its projections based on an analysis of fertility rates, mortality rates and immigration trends. They’re not set in stone. Things change. But they give a sense of the general direction of things. And many of these future demographics are already a reality—for example,  about half of newborns in 2010 were non-white.

In 2012, Mitt Romney captured just 17% of the non-white vote overall, according to the national exit poll, including 6% of the black vote, 27% of the Hispanic vote and 26% of the Asian-American vote.  Unless future Republican presidential candidates do better with these groups, the electoral math will keep getting more difficult for the GOP.

Paul Taylor is Executive Vice President of the Pew Research Center and Director, Pew Hispanic Center and Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends project.

Download the PowerPoint presentation: State of Race April 2013