But first, you might ask, how could there suddenly be more deaths than births, given that American lifespans are so long? One key reason is that U.S. birth rates and the number of births have dropped since the onset of the Great Recession in late 2007, and non-Hispanic whites also have a below-average birth rate. Another reason is the age makeup of the non-Hispanic white population: It is older than other groups (see chart) and includes a lower share of women in their childbearing years.

For now, the non-Hispanic white population is still growing because of immigration from abroad. But both the Census Bureau and the Pew Research Center have forecast that the number of white non-Hispanic Americans would decline in coming decades, as the death-to-birth ratio grows faster than could be offset by immigration. The recent fertility downturn may have sped up the growth of the death-to-birth ratio. From July 1, 2011 to July 1, 2012, the Census Bureau estimates there were about 12,000 more deaths among non-Hispanic whites than births.

Non-Hispanic whites are the bulwark of the nation’s giant post-World War II Baby Boom generation. The first of this group turned 65 in 2011, and 10,000 a day are forecast to do so in the coming decades, through 2029.

The Census Bureau recently projected that the share of Americans ages 65 and older would rise to 20% by 2030, compared with 13.7% in 2012. The working-age population, people ages 18 to 64, is projected to decline as a share of the total, as is the share of children.

Video: U.S. Census Bureau Statistics on Population Change (Washington Journal)

Although many people, especially in the United States, may associate Islam with countries in the Middle East or North Africa, nearly two-thirds (62%) of Muslims live in the Asia-Pacific region, according to the Pew Research analysis. In fact, more Muslims live in India and Pakistan (344 million combined) than in the entire Middle East-North Africa region (317 million).

However, the Middle East-North Africa region has the highest concentration Muslims of any region of the world: 93% of its approximately 341 million inhabitants are Muslim, compared with 30% in sub-Saharan Africa and 24% in the Asia-Pacific region.

Muslims make up a majority of the population in 49 countries around the world. The country with the largest number (about 209 million) is Indonesia, where 87.2% of the population identifies as Muslim. India has the world’s second-largest Muslim population in raw numbers (roughly 176 million) though Muslims make up just 14.4% of India’s total population.

Pew Research uses an array of surveys, census reports, population registers and other data sources to estimate numbers of Muslims and other religious groups around the world, the goal being to count all groups and people who self-identify with a particular religion. The figures presented here are as of 2010.

Pew Research has put out several major reports recently on Muslims around the world, including ones on differences in their religious beliefs and practices, their views of religion, politics and society, and their use of the internet. For more details on the geographic distribution of the Muslim population, here is the relevant chapter of the Global Religious Landscape report. You can also explore our data on the current Muslim population in each country here and projections for future population growth here.

That report projected the racial and ethnic makeup of the U.S. population through 2060. If you combine key numbers from those two Census Bureau reports into a single chart, as we’ve done below, you’ll get a feel for a political and demographic drama that’s going unfold over the next half century.

And if you’re a Republican thinking of running for president one day, you may be a bit concerned.

The seven columns on the left side of the chart show how the white share of the vote for president has steadily declined over the past quarter century. The two columns on the right show the racial composition of the population now and in 2060, as projected by the Census Bureau.

A couple of patterns stand out. First, whites were 74% of voters last year at a time when they were just 63% of the population. This racial turnout gap is driven by the fact that a disproportionate share of non-whites are either too young to vote, not eligible to vote (because they’re not citizens), or just don’t vote. All of these factors could change over time.

Second, if we look at the 2060 projections, we can see that there’s a lot more diversity yet to come. The Census Bureau makes its projections based on an analysis of fertility rates, mortality rates and immigration trends. They’re not set in stone. Things change. But they give a sense of the general direction of things. And many of these future demographics are already a reality—for example,  about half of newborns in 2010 were non-white.

In 2012, Mitt Romney captured just 17% of the non-white vote overall, according to the national exit poll, including 6% of the black vote, 27% of the Hispanic vote and 26% of the Asian-American vote.  Unless future Republican presidential candidates do better with these groups, the electoral math will keep getting more difficult for the GOP.

The report on the racial and ethnic breakdown of voters in 2012 released Wednesday by the Census Bureau attracted lots of well-deserved attention. But for readers of political tea-leaves, a report the bureau issued last December tells an even more compelling story.

That report projected the racial and ethnic makeup of the U.S. population through 2060. If you combine key numbers from those two Census Bureau reports into a single chart, as we’ve done below, you’ll get a feel for a political and demographic drama that’s going unfold over the next half century.

And if you’re a Republican thinking of running for president one day, you may be a bit concerned.

The seven columns on the left side of the chart show how the white share of the vote for president has steadily declined over the past quarter century. The two columns on the right show the racial composition of the population now and in 2060, as projected by the Census Bureau.

A couple of patterns stand out. First, whites were 74% of voters last year at a time when they were just 63% of the population. This racial turnout gap is driven by the fact that a disproportionate share of non-whites are either too young to vote, not eligible to vote (because they’re not citizens), or just don’t vote. All of these factors could change over time.

Second, if we look at the 2060 projections, we can see that there’s a lot more diversity yet to come. The Census Bureau makes its projections based on an analysis of fertility rates, mortality rates and immigration trends. They’re not set in stone. Things change. But they give a sense of the general direction of things. And many of these future demographics are already a reality—for example,  about half of newborns in 2010 were non-white.

In 2012, Mitt Romney captured just 17% of the non-white vote overall, according to the national exit poll, including 6% of the black vote, 27% of the Hispanic vote and 26% of the Asian-American vote.  Unless future Republican presidential candidates do better with these groups, the electoral math will keep getting more difficult for the GOP.

Paul Taylor is Executive Vice President of the Pew Research Center and Director, Pew Hispanic Center and Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends project.

Download the PowerPoint presentation: State of Race April 2013