Research Roundup: Latest Findings on Cell Phones and Polling
The Pew Research Center has been studying the challenge to survey research posed by the growing number of wireless-only households. Here’s a summary of its latest findings.
How Different Are People Who Don’t Respond to Pollsters?
Survey research firms face increasingly high non-completion rates. Analysis based on extra efforts to reach non-responders finds few differences between the responses of the easy- and hard-to-reach.
The Impact of “Cell-Onlys” on Public Opinion Polls
A new Pew study finds that on key political measures such as presidential approval, Iraq policy, presidential primary voter preference and party affiliation, respondents reached on cell phones hold attitudes very similar to those reached on landline telephones.
Getting It Wrong
Several factors deserve exploration, but one should not ignore the possibility of the longstanding pattern of pre-election polls overstating support for black candidates among white voters, particularly white voters who are poor.
Primary Problems: How Exit Pollsters Plan to Cope with a Super-Crowded Election Season
From holiday distractions to winter weather, the people who will be measuring voters’ preferences in primaries and caucuses around the nation will be dealing with unprecedented problems. Here’s how they plan to do it.
How Serious Is Polling’s Cell-Only Problem?
The landline-less are different from regular telephone users in many of their opinions and their numbers are growing fast. Can survey researchers meet this challenge?
How Reliable Are the Early Presidential Polls?
As the number of declared presidential candidates grows, followers of early poll readings should bear in mind some caveats. Early frontrunners for the Republican nomination in most of the past seven open contests have gone on to win the nomination, but this year there are two GOP frontrunners instead of one clear leader. On the Democratic side, even when there is a clear frontrunner as there is this year with Sen. Hillary Clinton, the early polls have been less reliable in predicting who will capture the nomination.
Cell-Only Voters Not Very Different
Political pollsters continue to cast a wary eye on the growing number of Americans who use only a cell phone and have no landline. The Pew Research Center estimates that this group now constitutes one-in-ten adults. But three Pew surveys of cell-only Americans this year have found that their absence from landline surveys is not creating a measurable bias in the bottom-line findings.
Are National Polls Reliable Predictors of Midterm Elections?
National elections are the high season for pollsters and with Election Day now less than two weeks away, new polls on the fight for Congress are being released nearly every day. Commonly, pollsters use something called the “generic ballot” to assess the state of the congressional race. Just how accurate is the “generic ballot” in predicting election results?
Lenski on Exit Polls in the Coming Elections
In an exclusive interview, Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research reflects on conducting his first election day survey following the death of his former partner, exit poll pioneer Warren Mitofsky. He also reveals steps that will be taken to avoid problems associated with the 2004 poll.