Registered voters, likely voters, turnout rates: What does it all mean to 2014 election forecasts?
How many Americans are likely to vote, and which voters in the survey are the likely voters? Important as these questions are, there is almost no consensus among the pollsters as to how to identify each of these groups.
Q/A: What the New York Times’ polling decision means
While online survey panels have long been used by market researchers, they’re relatively new in the opinion-research field, and views on them are sharply divided.
Q/A: How Pew Research tracks public opinion in countries stricken by violence and unrest
Fact Tank sat down with James Bell, Pew Research’s director of international survey research, to discuss how the center designs and implements its surveys in places of conflict like Ukraine.
Study: Polls may underestimate anti-gay sentiment and size of gay, lesbian population
A study using a novel research method raises questions.
Study: Opposition to same-sex marriage may be understated in public opinion polls
Blame “social desirability” bias.
Can presidential speeches change minds? The evidence suggest not
The presidency may well be a “bully pulpit,” in Theodore Roosevelt’s original sense, a position that commands attention. But as President Barack Obama prepares to address the nation Tuesday in support of taking military action against Syria, there’s little evidence (at least in recent times) that presidential speeches are very effective at moving the needle […]
Government Surveillance: A Question Wording Experiment
To better understand how the manner in which the government’s surveillance program is described affects public evaluations, the Pew Research Center conducted a question wording experiment.
How Pew Research conducted its national LGBT community survey
Why did Pew Research decide to conduct an LGBT-specific survey? We know from our surveys of the general public that there’s been a sharp increase in support for same-sex marriage and in societal acceptance of homosexuality over the past decade. Of course, we’re on the cusp of an important historical and cultural moment with the […]
Polling when public attention is limited: Different questions, different results
Different outcomes in different polls about the subpoenas served on the Associated Press in a Justice Department leak investigation were a case study in the challenges pollsters face in a breaking news environment when public attention and information is relatively limited.
A Comparison of Results from Surveys by the Pew Research Center and Google Consumer Surveys
As internet use grows– whether through a traditional computer, tablet, gaming device or cell phone – new techniques are being developed to conduct social research and measure people’s behavior and opinion while they are online.