Likely Rise In Voter Turnout Bodes Well For Democrats
Even with a partisan enthusiasm gap, voter interest is already as high as in November of recent elections, two trends that may significantly alter the composition of the eventual electorate in the Democrats’ favor. The proportion of swing voters is also up compared with four years ago. Nearly half of independents (47%) are undecided or may change their minds, up from 28% in June 2004.
Democratic Party’s Favorables Rise, Congress Still Unpopular
While opinion of the Republican Party (39% favorable) remains at a historic low, favorable views of the Democratic Party have risen to 57%. Attitudes toward the Democratic-led Congress, however, remain very negative.
The Widening Gap
While Barack Obama’s appeal to the young coincides with their increasing Democratic alignment, older voters do not show the greater allegiance to the GOP that might explain their relative reluctance to support him.
Gen Dems: The Party’s Advantage Among Young Voters Widens
Trends in the opinions of America’s youngest voters are often a barometer of shifting political winds. And that appears to be the case in 2008. Use the interactive tool to track generational differences in party affiliation over time.
Fewer Voters Identify as Republicans
The balance of party identification in the U.S. electorate now favors the Democratic Party by a decidedly larger margin than in either of the two previous presidential election cycles including in some key swing states.
The Hispanic Vote in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primaries
As the Democratic nomination contest heads for a showdown in Texas on March 4, Latinos may be a pivotal constituency in a state where they make up a quarter of the electorate.
Young Voters in the 2008 Presidential Primaries
Beyond the vote, the exit polls point to interesting differences — and similarities — between younger and older Democratic voters.
Hispanics and the 2008 Election: A Swing Vote?
Earlier Republican Party gains among Latinos have dissipated in the past year, a new Pew Hispanic Center survey finds. Hispanics also comprise a sizable share of voters in four “swing states” that President Bush narrowly carried in 2004.
A Year Ahead, Republicans Face Tough Political Terrain
A year before the 2008 presidential election, most major national opinion trends decidedly favor the Democrats and discontent with the state of the nation is markedly greater than it was four years ago. Also, Republicans have become less likely to say that their party is doing a good job standing up for its traditional positions.
Religion and the Presidential Vote: A Tale of Two Gaps
An analysis of national exit polls from 2004 shows there is not one but two religion gaps — one based on religious affiliation and the other based on frequency of attendance at worship services. How did the gaps manifest themselves in the 2004 election and what are the possible implications for 2008?