As Barack Obama travels through Europe on his first overseas trip as president, keep your expectations modest that this is the beginning of a major revival of America’s global image. No question that Barack Obama has a great personal following around the world, especially in comparison with President Bush. But to restore the global image of the nation he now leads, the new president must overcome a number of fundamental criticisms. And issues arising from the global economic crisis and other world problems on Obama’s agenda seem likely to resonate with key criticisms about America’s leadership in the Bush years.

Judging from Pew Research’s interviews with 177,000 people in 55 nations between 2002 and 2008, topping the list of carryover complaints is the charge that America too often acts unilaterally: that it doesn’t take into account the interests of other nations in formulating policy. Closely linked to this critique is the view that the United States relies too much on military force to deal with international conflicts.

Another consistent and prevalent criticism has been that the U.S. does too little to address world problems, and what it does do has widened the global gulf between rich and poor. On matters ranging from promotion of democracy to globalization to international security, the rest of the world became openly skeptical of America’s word and intentions over most of this decade.

Although a good deal of this global hardening of attitudes was aimed directly at President Bush and his policies, the animus amounted to something larger than a thumbs down on the-then-occupant of the White House. Simply put, much of the world came to fear and resent the unrivaled power of that worrisome colossus, the United States.

While President Obama has been extremely popular personally, his international agenda may not be, given the global mindset about the U.S. Take for example his desire to gain more European support for the war in Afghanistan. In 2008 most Europeans surveyed by Pew Research, save the British, favored withdrawing NATO troops from that country. An American president urging reluctant Europeans to use force is hardly likely to allay concerns about U.S. militarism.

Then there is Obama’s economic stimulus plan encouraging consumer spending and entailing greatly increased budget deficits. This apparently strikes at least some European leaders as reckless. The new president’s efforts to sell this policy approach may well feed into the prevailing notion of the U.S. going its own way in dealing with mega international problems.

Even more importantly, blaming the U.S. for the global recession may well resonate with the broader complaint about America’s power and influence. Pew Research surveys in 2008 found publics all around the world believing that the American economy exerted considerable influence on their nations’ own economies. And the verdict, even before the severe economic meltdown, in most countries was that the U.S. economy was responsible for slumping economic conditions. And that was before the real slump!

When asked about improving the image of America at his press conference last week, the president said that he had not looked at recent polling. In fact, not much polling has been done, as more time is needed for people around the world to have a sense of Obama the president, as opposed to Obama the candidate.

But from this perspective, while it seems likely that other nations will, in general, react favorably to Obama’s style and more conciliatory approach compared with President Bush, that will only go so far and so long in changing minds about what America stands for and its global leadership. In the end, actions — and their consequences — will resonate more widely and strongly than words.

A year and a half after a lengthy, often rancorous debate over immigration reform filled the chambers of a stalemated Congress, the issue appears to have receded in importance among one of the groups most affected by it — Latinos.

Only three-in-ten (31%) Latinos rate immigration as an “extremely important” issue facing the incoming Obama administration, placing it sixth on a list of seven policy priorities that respondents were asked to assess in a nationwide survey of 1,007 Latino adults conducted from December 3 to December 10, 2008 by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center.

The top-rated issue among Latinos is the economy; 57% of Hispanics say it is an extremely important issue for the new president to address. Education, health care, national security and the environment all also rate higher than immigration as a policy priority among Hispanics, while energy policy ranks lower.

Latinos, who make up 15% of the U.S. population, are by far the nation’s biggest immigrant group. According to Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2006 American Community Survey, more than half (55%) of Latinos ages 18 and older are immigrants, and 47% of all immigrants ages 18 and older are Hispanic. Even at the apex of the congressional debate over immigration reform in 2007, however, the issue never rose to the top of Latinos’ priority list. Of six issues asked of Latinos in a 2007 Pew Hispanic Center survey¹, it ranked fifth. But back then, 38% of Hispanics judged immigration to be an extremely important issue — more than the 31% who say the same thing in the new survey.

Moreover, in an open-ended question on this latest survey, just 6% of Latino respondents who voted in the 2008 election cited immigration as the issue that mattered most to them as they went to the polls. Five times as many named the economy (31%). Higher shares also named candidate attributes (14%) and a general desire for change (13%). In last year’s presidential election, Latino voters supported Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden over Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin by more than two-to-one — 67% to 31%.²

The immigration issue has fallen in importance since 2007 among the general population as well. While 56% of all registered voters cited immigration as a very important issue in 2007³, this share fell to 49% in late 2008⁴.

The latest Pew Hispanic Center survey also explored attitudes among Latinos about the incoming Obama administration and the outgoing Bush administration, and it examined a range of political activities that Latinos engaged in during the historic 2008 presidential campaign. Among its other key findings:

• In last year’s presidential election, Latino voters were more than twice as likely as voters in the general population to be first-time voters — 21% versus 8%. Among Latino voters ages 18-29, 47% were first-time voters.
• Hispanics are optimistic about the incoming Barack Obama administration. More than seven-in-ten (72%) say they expect Obama to have a successful first term.
• More than half (54%) of Latinos say that the failures of the Bush administration will outweigh its successes. In comparison, 64% of the U.S. general population holds the same view.
• About three-fourths (74%) of Latinos say they were more interested in last year’s presidential election than in the 2004 election.
• Three-in-four (75%) Latinos say they were satisfied with the field of presidential candidates in 2008.
• Overall, 83% of Hispanic voters say they learned enough from the campaigns to make informed choices.
• Almost four-in-ten (38%) Latinos say they were contacted and encouraged to register to vote or to get out to vote.

• Among Latinos contacted in the 2008 election campaign, 59% say they were contacted by the Obama campaign, while 43% say they were contacted by the McCain campaign.
• Television was the most popular conduit of news about the 2008 presidential campaign among Latinos. More than eight-in-ten (82%) report obtaining most of their election news through television. Eighteen percent used newspapers to get most of their election news, 18% used the internet for most of their news, and 10% of all Latinos obtained most of their campaign news through radio. In addition, 21% of respondents report getting at least some election news from the internet.
• Almost one-quarter (23%) of Latinos who obtained campaign information from television report that the information was in Spanish, while one-third (33%) got their television news in English; 44% obtained television news about the election in both languages.
• More than half (51%) of Latinos say they participated in at least one political activity other than voting during the 2008 election season. More than one-third (36%) say they used the internet to research a candidate; 26% tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a particular party; 18% say they displayed material or wore clothing related to a political campaign; 11% say they attended a political or campaign-related event; 9% say they contributed money to a candidate; and 5% say they volunteered or worked for a political candidate.
• Forty-four percent of Hispanics say that the recent election has made them more likely to participate in politics in the future.

This report is based on two bilingual telephone surveys. The first, the 2008 National Survey of Latinos, Economics and Politics, is a nationally representative sample of 1,540 Hispanics ages 18 and older. Interviews were conducted from November 11 through November 30, 2008. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

The second survey, the Pew Hispanic Center 2008 Politics Omnibus, was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 1,007 Latino respondents ages 18 and older, from December 3 through December 10, 2008. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For a full description of methodologies for both surveys, see the full report.

Read the full report at pewhispanic.org.

Notes

¹ “Hispanics and the 2008 Election: A Swing Vote?” Pew Hispanic Center, Dec. 6, 2007.

² “The Hispanic Vote in the 2008 Election,” Pew Hispanic Center, Nov. 5, 2008.

³ “A Year Ahead, Republicans Face Tough Political Terrain,” Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Oct. 31, 2007.

⁴ “Growing Doubts About McCain’s Judgment, Age and Campaign Conduct,” Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Oct. 21, 2008.

What a difference eight years can make — or not. Between the final days of the presidency of Bill Clinton and the current wrapping up of the administration of George W. Bush, many changes have occurred in the state of the nation’s polity and economy. And yet, as shown in the tables below, others things, most notably certain American beliefs and attitudes, have remained remarkably constant.

No question the overall mood of the public has changed a great deal since Bush was elected president in the fall of 2000. A mere 13% of Americans are now satisfied with the way things are going in the country, compared with 55% eight years ago. And while 61% applauded at Clinton’s curtain call, only 24% approve of Bush’s performance as he leaves the national stage. Still, the U.S. Congress, now controlled by Democrats, fares no better in public esteem: fewer than one in five now approve of its job performance, down from a 56%-majority that gave it the thumbs up in 2000.

By the end of 2000, concerns had mounted that the good times of the late 1990s were at an end. Still Americans were far less pessimistic about the state of the economy than they are currently. At the start of Bush’s tenure, the number judging the economy as good or better stood at 46%. Now a meager 7% voice that opinion. About three-in-four Americans now see jobs as hard to find in their communities compared with 44% in 2000. And standard measures of consumer outlook have also plummeted: the just-released Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index weighed in at 38.0, its lowest level since the index was first tabulated in 1967.

Dominating the down side of the ledger are the statistics that measure the nation’s economic health. The unemployment rate at the close of 2000 measured a comfortable 3.9%. By November 2008, it had reached 6.7%, a level that did not, in itself, reflect the still larger rise in labor force dropouts and part-time workers who would have preferred full-time jobs. Including them raises the current jobless count to 12.5%, far higher than the comparable 6.9% rate that prevailed eight years ago. And while the economy enjoyed a gain of 1.9 million jobs during Clinton’s last full year in office, the last 12 months for which data are available produced a net loss of virtually equivalent magnitude (larger, if only private sector jobs are counted).

On the brighter side, the inflation rate has shrunk to scarcely 1%, thanks in part to sagging consumer demand. And while average gas prices over the year were far higher than eight years ago, peaking above $4 a gallon in July, their hasty retreat to about the same low level that prevailed in 2000 has taken some pressure off consumers’ wallets. Moreover, until recently, the U.S. economy continued to grow over most of Bush’s two-terms in office; the Gross National Product, measured in constant dollars, rose by some 19% over the period. But the U.S. population also grew rapidly so that GDP per capita rose by only 11%, about 1% a year compounded. And because income gains were larger at the top rungs of the income ladder, median income — the level above and below which half of the nation’s households fall — actually declined slightly over the period.

Despite their straitened means, neither Americans — nor their government — lost their taste for shopping. Indeed, both went on consuming at record rates over the period. As a result both federal and consumer debt escalated. The Gross National Debt climbed to more than $10 trillion by the end of FY2008 (not including the expected trillion-dollar stimulus package), while consumers, despite some recent belt-tightening, ran some $2.6 trillion dollars into the red. Meanwhile the nation kept on piling up debts owed to foreigners, adding $177 billion to the total during the latest 12 months on record.

Still, if anything, Americans’ trademark optimism has been strengthened by adversity. A 56%-majority expects their own family finances to improve over the coming year — essentially the same proportion who thought that eight years ago, and fully 68% agree that Americans can always solve their problems — a sizeable increase from the 59% who espoused that view in the fall of 2000. And despite the headline-making business scandals of the period — from Enron to Madoff — the public remains split (47% to 43%) on whether government regulation is needed to protect the public interest or usually does more harm than good, a divide essentially unchanged since the turn of the century.

On the home front, the same small minority (roughly a quarter of the public) thinks women should retreat to their traditional roles. Nor has there been any real shift in views on whether abortion should be legal. However, skepticism has increased somewhat about the role of the clergy in politics — a slight majority (52%) now thinks that churches and other houses of worship of worship should stay out of politics.

Meanwhile, three-in four Americans now go online, most frequently to check out the news and get health information. That’s up from slightly more than half (57%) who did so at the turn of the century. The ’08 campaign also saw the internet claim a leading role in the dissemination of campaign news, especially among younger adults, while surpassing newspapers and all other media except television as a primary outlet for national and international news generally. And nearly three-in-ten adults now use the internet to seek investment advice at least once a week, which may or may not tell you something about the market’s roller-coaster ride over the Bush years.

Notes

¹ Satisfied with the way things are going in this country today. Pew Research Center for the People & the Press surveys, Jan. 2001 and Dec. 2008. (All Pew surveys cited in the following endnotes were conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press unless otherwise noted.)

² Approve of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president, Pew survey, Jan. 2001; approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president, Pew survey, Dec. 2008.

³ Gallup surveys, Dec. 2-4, 2000 and Nov. 13-16, 2008.

⁴ Think Bill Clinton will go down in history as an outstanding (12%) or above average (32%) president. Pew survey, Jan. 2001; think George W. Bush will go down in history as outstanding president, Pew Survey, Dec. 2008.

⁵ Gallup survey, March 5-7, 2001 and Pew survey, Dec. 2008.

⁶ Overall opinion of George W. Bush ivery or mostly favorable, Pew survey, Jan. 2001; overall opinion of Obama very or mostly favorable, Gallup survey, Nov.6-7, 2008.

⁷ “High Marks for Campaign, High Bar for Obama,” Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Nov. 13, 2008.

⁸ Gallup surveys, 1/15-16/2001 and Nov. 07-09, 2008.

⁹ Conference Board Index of Consumer Sentiment, Dec. 2000 (rev.), Los Angeles Times, January 31, 2001 and Dec. 2009 (prelim.) Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, Index of Consumer Sentiment for Dec. 2000 and Dec. 2008. The index was up from 55.3 in November but well below last December’s 75.5 and the cyclical peak of 96.9 set in January 2007.

¹⁰ GDP in chained 2000 dollars. Data for 2008 are third quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce.

¹¹ Bureau of the Census population estimates for 2000 and 2008.

¹² U.S. Bureau of the Census, annual estimates for July 2000 and July 2008.

¹³ “Now” data are for 2007; income data for 2008 are not yet available although, in view of the economic downturn it is likely that, at best, the household median income did not rise appreciably over the last year. Computed from Census data by Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Institute.

¹⁴ Consumer Price Index, percent change Dec. ’99-Dec’00 for 2000, Nov.’07-Nov.’08 for 2008, Bureau of Labor Statistics. The decline of 1.7 percentage points from the October rate was the largest recorded since the government began compiling the CPI in 1947. The 2008 inflation rate peaked at 5.60% in July before oil prices collapsed.

¹⁵ Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for Dec. 2000 and Nov. 2008, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dept. of Labor.

¹⁶ Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates including labor force dropouts who want to be employed as percent of civilian labor force, Dec. ’00 and Nov. 08, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Dept. of Labor.

¹⁷ Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates including labor force dropouts who want to be employed, part-time workers desiring full-time work and marginally attached workers. Dec. ’00 and Nov. 08, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dept. of Labor.

¹⁸ Avg. for weeks ending Dec. 29, 2000 and Dec. 26, 2008. Federal Reserve Board. The federal funds rate, now at an historical low, is the interest rate that banks and other financial institutions typically charge each other for overnight loans of reserves. It is the rate targeted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at its monthly meetings.

¹⁹ Avg. for weeks ending Dec. 29, 2000 and Dec. 26, 2008. Federal Reserve Board.

²⁰ Total Gross Federal Debt Outstanding, FY 2000 and FY2008. Includes both debt owed to the public ($3.4 trillion in FY2000 and $5.8 trillion in FY2008) and debt owed to federal government accounts, primarily federal trust funds such as Social Security, that invest their excess receipts in federal securities ($2.2 trillion in FY2000 and $$4.2 trillion in FY2008). By the end of calendar year 2008, federal debt had climbed to about $10.7 trillion, with analysts predicting that the debt will grow by as much as $2 trillion in the coming year once the full economic stimulus package is enacted. (“U.S. Debt Expected To Soar This Year,” Washington Post, 1/3/2009.)

²¹ Federal Reserve Board October data for 2008, ; December data for 2000. Federal Reserve data for Oct. 2008 and Dec. 2000. Excludes loans secured by real estate. After the the first recorded decline in household indebtedness in Q3 of 2008, consumer credit fell further in October, a drop accounted for by reductions in non-revolving credit such as loans for automobiles, mobile homes, education, boats, or vacations. Revolving credit (including credit cards) was essentially unchanged.

²² The U.S. Current Account Deficit is the sum of the balances on foreign trade in goods and services, income and net unilateral current transfers. Data for end of 4th quarter 2000 and 3rd quarter 2008 Bureau of Economic Analysis. In Q3 of 2008 – for which data were released on 12/17/08 –, the deficit on trade in goods equaled $215 billion down slightly from $216 billion in Q2.

²³ Dow Jones Industrial Index at close on 12/29/2000 and 12/31/2008.

²⁴ Average nominal price per gallon including taxes, U.S. city avg. for 2000 and for the first 11 months of 2008. The average for Nov. 2008 reached a low of $2.21 for the year, nearly $2.00 below the peak of $4.14 recorded in July.

²⁵ Annualized rates for December 2000 and November 2008. Bureau of the Census.

²⁶ Annualized rates for Dec. 2000 and Nov. 2008, National Assn. of Realtors. Existing home sales in November were down 8.6% from October and 10.6% from a year earlier. Home construction hit a record low in November after taking its biggest one-month fall in 24 years. And in October Prices of U.S. single-family homes in October posted a record fall of 18.0 percent from a year earlier, according to the closely watched Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

²⁷ Pew surveys, June 2001 and Dec. 2008.

²⁸ Newsweek survey, Jan. 2001 and Pew survey, Dec. 2008.

²⁹ Pew surveys June 2000 andDec. 2008.

³⁰ Pew surveys, Jan. 11, 2001 and Dec. 2008; percent who say that over the course of the next year, they think their family financial situation will improve a lot or some.

³¹ Pew surveys, Aug. 1999 and Dec. 2008.

³² Pew surveys, Sept. 2000 and Dec. 2008.

³³ Pew surveys, Aug. 1999 and Dec. 2008.

³⁴ Pew surveys, Sept. 2000 and Dec. 2008.

³⁵ Pew Social Trends Survey, April 2008 and Pew People & Press survey, July-November 1999; percent who mostly or completely agree that women should return to their traditional roles in society.

³⁶ ABC/Washington Post survey January 2001 and Pew Forum/People-Press Religion and Public Life Survey, August 2008.

³⁷ Pew Forum/People-Press Religion and Public Life Survey, August 2008 and Pew survey September 2000.

³⁸ Pew Forum/People-Press Religion and Public Life Survey, August 2008 and Pew survey early Oct. 2001.

³⁹ Ibid.

⁴⁰ Pew Internet & American Life Project surveys, 2000, 2007 and 2008.

⁴¹ Internet Overtakes Newspapers as News Source, Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Dec. 2008.

⁴² Pew survey, Nov. 20, 2008.

When Barack Obama is sworn in as America’s new president in January, he will inherit two wars in distant lands, one highly unpopular and the other going badly, along with a worldwide financial crisis that is being measured against the Great Depression. He will confront the prospect of destructive global climate change and the spread of nuclear weapons to rogue states.

The president-elect has indicated that he will focus on international cooperation in addressing global problems, but he will have to navigate a world that has grown highly critical of the United States.

The U.S. image abroad is suffering almost everywhere. Particularly in the most economically developed countries, people blame America for the financial crisis. Opposition to key elements of American foreign policy is widespread in Western Europe, and positive views of the U.S. have declined steeply among many of America’s longtime European allies. In Muslim nations, the wars in Afghanistan and particularly Iraq have driven negative ratings nearly off the charts. The United States earns positive ratings in several Asian and Latin American nations, but usually by declining margins. And while the most recent Pew Global Attitudes survey finds that favorable views of America edged up in 2008, only in sub-Saharan Africa does America score uniformly favorable marks.

America’s image gap is the central, unmistakable finding from surveys conducted over the course of this decade by the Pew Research Center’s Pew Global Attitudes Project. Since 2002, interviewers have polled over 175,000 people in 54 nations and the Palestinian territories to compare and contrast public opinion around the world on a large variety of subjects. These years coincide almost exactly with the presidency of George W. Bush, thus making it possible to assess his impact on matters of concern not just to the United States but to the world. Some of the other major findings include:

- Numerous tensions exist between Muslim and Western publics on values, policies, world events, and perceptions of one another. For instance, a 2006 Pew Global Attitudes survey highlighted the extent to which Muslims saw the controversy surrounding cartoons published by a Danish newspaper portraying the prophet Muhammad as an example of Western disrespect for Islam, while Westerners blamed intolerance among Muslims.

- Despite some rough edges, globalization has enjoyed widespread popularity during the Bush years. Surveys have found worldwide support for increased commerce across national borders. Still, enthusiasm is waning in Western Europe and the United States as rich countries become aware of accompanying dislocations. And many foreigners, even as they devour American movies and music, fear the crowding out of their own cultures.

- The rise of China has generated serious concerns in many countries. China’s favorability ratings have fallen since 2002, particularly in Europe and its biggest neighbors – India, Japan, and Russia. China is already widely regarded as one of the world’s top economic powers and is seen by many as likely to replace the United States as the world’s dominant power.

- The world’s agenda is evolving but not transforming. A 2007 survey found that global publics were increasingly concerned about the growing gap between the world’s rich and poor. Concern about pollution had also increased. At the family level, people consistently named financial concerns as the most important problem in their own lives, but they did not want to see economic growth come at the expense of the environment.

America’s Image Gap

Mounting discontent with U.S. foreign policy over the last eight years has translated into a concern about American power. In the view of much of the world, the United States has played the role of bully in the school yard, throwing its weight around with little regard for others’ interests.

America won a measure of global sympathy after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, but the inaugural Pew Global Attitudes survey showed that by spring 2002 favorability ratings for the U.S. had already dropped in many countries since the start of the decade. Surveys conducted after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 found further declines. Positive views of the United States declined in 26 of the 33 countries where the question was posed in both 2002 and 2007.

Respondents to the 2006 survey in 13 of 15 countries found the American presence in Iraq to be an equal or greater danger to stability in the Middle East than the regime of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, while 11 judged it a threat to Middle East stability greater than or equal to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

And while the U.S.-led war on terrorism initially drew strong support among U.S. allies in Europe, in recent years world attitudes toward America’s military operations in Afghanistan have turned increasingly negative. Now in recent surveys, majorities in nearly all countries think it’s time for America to withdraw from both Iraq and Afghanistan.

The attacks transformed American public opinion and fundamentally reshaped Bush’s image. His job approval rating reached 86% by late September. The public expressed broad willingness to use military force to combat terrorism. But then controversies over the build-up to war in Iraq and other Bush policies started to take their toll — at home and abroad.

U.S. forces quickly ousted Saddam Hussein in 2003, but could not create a lasting peace. As the fighting dragged on, Bush won re-election by a narrow margin. In his second term, he failed in his bid to build support for a partial privatization of Social Security. American deaths continued in Iraq, the government bungled the response to the devastating Hurricane Katrina in late 2005 and political scandal reached directly into the White House.

Soon, economic troubles started to mount, and in 2008, the economy went into a dangerous free fall that led to controversial and expensive government intervention in financial markets. The president’s approval ratings slid over time to historic lows. His approval last hit 50% as he started his second term. It stood at just 24% in early December.

Not surprisingly, the public’s verdict on the Bush presidency is overwhelmingly negative. In a December 2008 Pew Research Center survey, just 11% said Bush will be remembered as an outstanding or above average president — by far the lowest positive end-of-term rating for any of the past four presidents. Yet Bush’s impact on public opinion over the past eight years is seen in ways that go well beyond his personal unpopularity.

He helped shape the post-9/11 climate of opinion that was broadly accepting of a muscular approach to U.S. national security. And even after much of the public came to oppose the war in Iraq, there continued to be considerable support for the Bush doctrine of preemptive military action. In spite of the public’s shock over pictures of abuse of detainees at the U.S.-run Abu Ghraib prison, nearly half of Americans consistently said that the torture of terrorists to gain key information was at least sometimes justified.

In the final year of his presidency, even as his approval rating steadily declined to historic lows, most Americans continued to say Bush’s anti-terror policies deserve at least a fair amount of credit for preventing more terror attacks.

In his first term, Bush scored several early legislative successes on domestic issues — such as the No Child Left Behind education reform, two rounds of tax cuts and the launch of a significant Medicare drug plan.

But after those successes, the instances when Bush was able to mobilize — and maintain — public support for his agenda were rare. Even in the realm of national security, the public increasingly rejected the idea that a large military presence overseas would reduce the threat of terror at home.

Public backing for what was to have been Bush’s signature second-term achievement — reforming the Social Security system — withered within months of his reelection. His immigration reform proposal faced opposition within his own party, even though it was an issue — like Social Security — where Americans recognized major change was needed.

What might have damaged Bush’s legacy most was his administration’s mixed record of competent governance. Between Iraq, the government’s flawed relief effort in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and more minor missteps over the Dubai ports issue and other matters, the government “brand” deteriorated badly during the Bush years. In late April 2008, just 37% expressed a favorable view of the federal government, about half of the percentage of five years earlier (73%).

Final Judgments

In a Pew survey conducted Dec. 3-7 among 1,489 adults, the American public paints a harshly negative picture of Bush’s tenure. Nearly two-thirds (64%) say his administration will be remembered more for its failures than its accomplishments, and a plurality (34%) says Bush will go down in history as a poor president. Fully 68% say they disapprove of Bush’s performance and most of those — 53% of the public — say they disapprove strongly. That is the highest rate of strong disapproval measured by Pew surveys in Bush’s eight years in office.

As his second term ends, only 13% say Bush has made progress toward solving the major issues facing the country; 37% say he has made those problems worse and 34% say he has tried but failed in his efforts. Another 11% say he has not addressed the major problems facing the country.

More than three times as many people say Bush will go down in history as a poor president (34%) than said the same of Bill Clinton at the end of his presidency (11%). About a quarter (24%) say Bush will be seen as below average and close to three-in-ten (28%) say he will be seen as average. Just 11% say he will go down in history as above average or outstanding.

Not surprisingly, the most critical assessments come from Democrats. More than half (53%) say Bush will go down in history as a poor president, while 25% say he will be remembered as below average. More than four-in-ten Republicans (44%) say he will be remembered as an average president; 21% say below average and 6% say poor. Two-in-ten say he will be remembered as above average, while 7% say outstanding.

Americans by a wide margin (64% to 24%) also say that in the long run the failures of the Bush administration will outweigh its accomplishments. The assessment of Clinton in 2001, despite controversy over how he had conducted himself in office, was virtually a mirror image. Six-in-ten said the accomplishments would outweigh the failures, and 27% said the failures would outweigh the accomplishments.

Just over half (52%) of Republicans say the Bush administration will be best known for its accomplishments. That number is significantly smaller for independents (20%) and Democrats (8%). When Clinton was leaving office, his own party (77%) and independents (60%) were much more convinced he would be remembered for his accomplishments.

Second Term Approval Slide

Between the start of his second term and December 2008, Bush’s approval rating dropped from 50% to 24%, a level that rivals the historic lows recorded by Gallup for Harry S. Truman as he left office in 1952. Declines came across demographic and political groups, though significant divides still exist among those with differing political ideologies.

Approval among moderate and liberal Republicans saw one of the sharpest drops — from 82% to 50%. Conservative Republican approval dropped from 94% to 66%. Independent approval started at below half in 2005 — 47% — but dropped to 18% by December 2008. The change among Democratic groups, already highly critical of Bush, proved less dramatic. Approval among conservative and moderate Democrats dropped from 22% to 8%, while approval among liberal Democrats dropped from 7% to 2%.

Bush’s approval dropped significantly among all education levels. In terms of age groups, the largest decline came among the youngest voters – those age 18-29. Within that group, approval dropped from 50% to 19%. The oldest group – age 65 and up – experienced a smaller decline, dropping from 47% to 26%.

A Legacy of War

When people are asked what they think Bush will be most remembered for after he leaves office, the most frequent responses volunteered are tied to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism. More than half (51%) of responses mention facets of the Global War on Terror, with close to three-in-ten (29%) specifically mentioning Iraq.

About 17% include specific negative assessments of Bush and his performance. Small percentages within that group refer to his competence (2%), his negative impact on the country (2%) or label him the “worst president” (2%). Another 13% refer to the impact of the Sept. 11 terror attacks, with 9% mentioning the attacks specifically and 3% noting that Bush had kept the country safe from major attack since that day. Another 12% mentions economic issues, including 7% who refer to the economy specifically, 4% who mention the current crisis and 3% referring to the recession. Another 4% offer positive assessments of Bush’s performance in office.

Meanwhile, concerns about Bush’s effectiveness are also seen in the one-word answers people give to describe their impressions of the president. In mid-2005, positive one-word descriptions outnumbered negative ones, but in more recent lists, the responses have been more negative. The most frequently mentioned description in the latest survey was “incompetent,” just as it was in February 2007 and March 2006. Many of the terms offered by respondents in the December 2008 survey are negative, though the second most frequently mentioned description was honest. Good and honorable also make the list.

The Global Outlook

On the foreign stage, a solid majority of Americans say the country is significantly less respected than in the past — and many of those people see that as a major problem. Many Americans are eager to turn inward to deal with this nation’s problems: fully 60% said in September 2008 that domestic policy should be the primary focus of the new president. And a greater percentage than before the Iraq war now say the best way to reduce the threat of terror is to reduce America’s military presence overseas, not increase it.

Meanwhile, a 2008 survey by the Pew Global Attitudes Project showed that majorities in 19 of the 24 nations — including several strong U.S. allies — had little confidence in Bush as he neared the end of his presidency. A 2007 survey of 45 nations found anti-American sentiment extensive as well as increasing disapproval for key elements of U.S. foreign policy.

And the image of the U.S. in the Muslim world remained abysmal. Iraq, the war on terrorism and American support for Israel continued to generate animosity in the Middle East, Asia and elsewhere. In many nations considered central to the war on terror, the general public deeply distrusted the United States. Even in countries like Kuwait that have long been considered relatively pro-American, the U.S. image had declined.

Among the few bright spots for Bush in the Global Attitudes surveys were the African nations that had benefited from administration programs to boost economic growth and reduce the spread of AIDS. In 2008, majorities in Tanzania and Nigeria expressed confidence in the president.

Still, Bush has had some success at home building support for tough tactics — including harsh interrogation policies for foreign detainees and government monitoring of phone calls or e-mails without warrants — to gather information about possible terrorists and stop potential attacks. On balance, more Americans say they worry that anti-terror policies have not gone far enough in protecting the United States than say they feel the anti-terror policies have “gone too far in restricting civil liberties.”

The Political Legacy

When Bush took office, Republicans controlled both Congress and the White House. But voter party preferences shifted significantly during Bush’s second term as missteps, bad news and scandals took their toll on Bush and GOP congressional leaders. In the 2006 midterm elections, more independents and moderates aligned themselves with the party out of power and Democrats took control of the House and the Senate.

In 2008, Bush was barely seen during the presidential campaign. Both Barack Obama and John McCain persistently criticized his administration, vowing to bring “change” to Washington. Obama’s significant win and additional Democratic gains in Congress signaled a continuing decline of the Republican Party under Bush.

In surveys conducted in the fall of 2008, 51% of all voters said they thought of themselves as Democrats or leaned toward the Democratic Party. That was up five points from 46% during the same period in 2004. Meanwhile, the number identifying with or leaning toward the Republican Party fell from 45% to 41%.

The greatest gains came among younger voters. Only among voters age 65 and older did the percentage identifying with the Democratic Party decrease — from 49% in 2004 to 47% in 2008. The percentage of voters age 18 to 29 identifying with the Democratic Party increased from 48% in the fall of 2004 to 61% in the fall of 2008. Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a margin of nearly two-to-one (61% to 32%) in this age group, up from only a seven-point advantage in 2004.

Some Americans are having a change of heart about mixing religion and politics. A new survey finds a narrow majority of the public saying that churches and other houses of worship should keep out of political matters and not express their views on day-to-day social and political matters. For a decade, majorities of Americans had voiced support for religious institutions speaking out on such issues.

The new national survey by the Pew Research Center reveals that most of the reconsideration of the desirability of religious involvement in politics has occurred among conservatives. Four years ago, just 30% of conservatives believed that churches and other houses of worship should stay out of politics. Today, 50% of conservatives express this view.

As a result, conservatives’ views on this issue are much more in line with the views of moderates and liberals than was previously the case. Similarly, the sharp divisions between Republicans and Democrats that previously existed on this issue have disappeared.

There are other signs in the new poll about a potential change in the climate of opinion about mixing religion and politics. First, the survey finds a small but significant increase since 2004 in the percentage of respondents saying that they are uncomfortable when they hear politicians talk about how religious they are — from 40% to 46%. Again, the increase in negative sentiment about religion and politics is much more apparent among Republicans than among Democrats.

Second, while the Republican Party is most often seen as the party friendly toward religion, the Democratic Party has made gains in this area. Nearly four-in-ten (38%) now say the Democratic Party is generally friendly toward religion, up from just 26% two years ago. Nevertheless, considerably more people (52%) continue to view the GOP as friendly toward religion.

The poll by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life finds increasing numbers of Americans believing that religiously-defined ideological groups have too much control over the parties themselves. Nearly half (48%) say religious conservatives have too much influence over the Republican Party, up from 43% in August 2007. At the same time, more people say that liberals who are not religious have too much sway over the Democrats than did so last year (43% today vs. 37% then).

Social Conservatives’ Discontents

In addition to somewhat greater worries about the way religious and non-religious groups are influencing the parties, the survey suggests that frustration and disillusionment among social conservatives may be a part of the reason why a greater number now think that religious institutions should keep out of politics. However, there is little to suggest that social conservatives want religion to be a less important element in American politics.

The greatest increases since 2004 in the view that churches and other houses of worship should not express themselves on political matters have occurred among less educated Republicans and people who say that social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage will be important to their vote. For example, among people who rate gay marriage as a top voting issue, the percentage saying that churches should stay out of politics soared from 25% in 2004 to 50% currently; there was little change over this period on this question among people who do not view same-sex marriage as a very important issue.

Another indication that disillusionment may be in play in increased opposition to the mixing of religion and politics is seen in the fact that this sentiment has increased most among people who rate the major parties as unfriendly toward religion. The views of citizens who see the parties as neutral or friendly toward religion have been more stable on the question of whether churches and other houses of worship should speak out on political issues.

In short, the change of mind about the role of religious institutions in politics is most apparent among people who are most concerned about the very issues that churches and other houses of worship have focused on, and among those who fault the parties for their friendliness toward religion.

Changes in views about the role of churches in politics notwithstanding, many of the contours of American public opinion relating to broad questions of religion and politics remain largely unchanged. Two-thirds of the public (66%) say that churches and other houses of worship should not endorse one candidate over another, which is unchanged since 2004 (65%). And while most say it is important for presidents to have strong religious beliefs, they are divided about whether there currently is too much, or too little, in the way of expressions of faith by contemporary political leaders. Roughly comparable numbers say political leaders express their religious beliefs too much (29%), too little (36%) or the right amount (28%).

Despite their increased reluctance to see religious institutions speaking out on politics, conservatives and Republicans continue to express very strong support for a religious president and relatively high levels of support for expressions of religious faith and prayer by political leaders.

Soft Support Among Social Conservatives for McCain

While some social conservatives are expressing changed views about religion and politics, there is little indication that they are changing their voting preferences: John McCain has about as large a lead over Barack Obama among conservatives and white evangelicals as George Bush did at this stage in the campaign four years ago.

However, as has been the case since June, the current survey shows much more tepid support for McCain among white evangelical Protestants and conservatives generally than Bush enjoyed in August 2004. Just 28% of white evangelical Protestants say they are strong backers of the Arizona senator. Four years ago, 57% of white evangelicals described themselves as strong backers of President Bush.

As was the case in previous presidential elections, the voting inclinations of Catholic voters — especially white non-Hispanic Catholics — remain fluid. Four years ago at this time John Kerry held a slight edge over Bush among white non-Hispanic Catholics; but he lost that lead by the election. In the current poll, this group, which accounts for 18% of the electorate, is divided almost evenly: 45% support McCain, while 44% favor Obama.

Other Findings

The survey was conducted by telephone — both landline phones and cell phones — from July 31-Aug. 10 among a national sample of 2,905 adults. It finds that as the Democratic Party’s advantage in party identification has grown, there have been some notable changes in party affiliation within key religious groups. In 2008, about half of registered voters (51%) identify themselves as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, while just 38% identify as Republicans or Republican leaners. In 2004, Democrats held only a slight, three-point advantage in party affiliation (47% to 44%).

While white non-Hispanic Catholics are divided in their presidential choices, they are increasingly identifying as Democrats. In surveys conducted this year, 49% of white non-Hispanic Catholics either affiliate with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 40% identify with the GOP. In 2004, 47% of white non-Hispanic Catholics identified with the GOP while 45% affiliated with the Democratic Party.

The survey finds that the economy continues to dominate the concerns of voters. Nearly nine-in-ten (87%) say the economy will be very important to their vote this fall, up from 78% in October 2004. Energy has surged among voters’ concerns: 77% view energy as very important, compared with only 54% in the closing weeks of the last campaign.

For the most part, the issues that are important to the public as a whole are also important to particular religious groups. However, social issues, such as same-sex marriage, continue to be more important for white evangelicals than for other registered voters. Currently, 46% of white evangelicals say same-sex marriage will be a very important voting issue, compared with 28% of all voters. That is only somewhat less than the percentage of white evangelical voters who viewed same-sex marriage as very important in October 2004 (49%).

With the economy slowing and the stock market reeling, there is greater agreement among Republicans and Democrats that strengthening the nation’s economy should be a top priority for the president and Congress in the coming year. By contrast, partisan differences over the importance of other domestic issues — such as dealing with global warming, helping the poor and providing health insurance to the uninsured — have all increased substantially over the past year.

As President Bush prepares for his final State of the Union address on Jan. 28, opinions about his administration’s legacy, already fairly negative, have declined further. Fully 59% say the Bush administration’s failures will outweigh its accomplishments, while just 28% believe the Bush administration will be remembered more for its accomplishments. A year ago, a smaller majority (53%) believed the administration’s failures would be more enduring than its successes.

The annual survey on the public’s policy agenda shows that substantially more Republicans and independents view strengthening the economy as a top priority than did so in January 2007. Partisan differences over the importance of bolstering the nation’s economy, which were fairly sizable at the start of last year, have disappeared.

However, far fewer Republicans rate dealing with global warming, expanding access to health insurance and helping the poor as top concerns — and partisan disagreements over the importance of those issues have increased considerably. Only about a quarter of Republicans (27%) say that providing health insurance to the uninsured should be a top priority, down 17 points from January 2007. More than twice as many Democrats (65%) and independents (58%) now rate this as a major policy goal.

There is a similar pattern in views about the importance of dealing with the problems of the poor and global warming. A year ago, global warming was the lowest-ranking agenda item for Republicans of 23 issues mentioned; just 23% viewed it as a top priority. This year, it has fallen even further — just 12% of Republicans cite global warming as a top priority, less than half the proportion naming the next lowest rated issue (27% for providing health insurance to the uninsured).

Democrats currently are about four times more likely than Republicans to rate global warming as a major priority (47% vs. 12%), a much greater gap than in January 2007 (48% Democrat vs. 23% Republican).

The latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Jan. 9-13 among 1,515 adults, finds signs of considerable unease with the nation’s economy. In the survey, conducted before this week’s stock market fluctuations, just 26% rate the economy as excellent or good, while 73% say it is only fair or poor.

While opinions about the economy have not declined since fall, they are the most negative economic ratings at the beginning of any presidential year since 1992. In January 2004, 37% had a positive view of the economy, while 63% expressed a negative opinion.

Most Important Problem

Economic problems now top the public’s list of national concerns, with roughly one-in-three (34%) citing economic problems as the nation’s most grave, compared with 27% who say the war in Iraq is the biggest problem facing the nation.

This represents a reversal from a year ago, when 42% cited Iraq as the most important problem in the wake of Bush’s proposal to increase the number of troops there. As recently as September, 37% of Americans cited Iraq as the nation’s biggest problem, nearly double the 20% who cited economic problems. But current views are more in line with public opinion in 2005 and 2006, when roughly equal numbers cited economic concerns and Iraq as the nation’s biggest problem.

Democrats remain more likely than Republicans to cite the economy as the nation’s greatest problem. Nearly four-in-ten Democrats (39%) list an economic concern, compared with 27% of Republicans. Democrats are also substantially more concerned about Iraq than are Republicans (36% vs. 21%). By contrast, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to name immigration, terrorism and national security as the biggest problems.

While the number of Americans citing the economy as the nation’s largest problem has increased in the past year, it is far from a record high, even in the post-Iraq era. Over the past two decades, 1992 still represents the peak public concern about the economy. In January of that year fully 76% cited an economic problem as the most important facing the nation. But a more recent peak occurred in the spring of 2003 – just a month after U.S. forces invaded Iraq. In April of 2003, 41% of Americans saw the economy as the nation’s biggest problem, while just 14% cited the situation in Iraq.

Dueling Agendas

Compared with Republicans, Democrats place much greater emphasis on jobs, health care, education, the environment, and the poor. On jobs, for instance, 76% of Democrats but just 43% of Republicans say it should be a top priority for the president and Congress. Somewhat higher proportions in each party rate jobs as a top priority than did so in January 2007 (67% of Democrats, 39% of Republicans).

Notably, 81% of Democrats say that reducing health care costs should be a top priority for policymakers — the highest percentage for any issue mentioned. Only about half of Republicans (53%) view this as a major priority.

Republicans place greater priority on defending the U.S. against terrorism (86%, vs. 74% for Democrats), dealing with the issue of illegal immigration (64% vs. 43%), and strengthening the military (62% vs. 37%). For Republicans, illegal immigration ranks as the third leading priority, after terrorism and the economy. However, while illegal immigration has been a major issue in the GOP’s primary campaign, slightly fewer Republicans rate this as a top priority than in January 2007 (64% now vs. 69% then).

At the same time, reducing the influence of lobbyists and special interest groups in Washington is now a much higher priority among Republicans than it was in January 2007. Roughly four-in-ten Republicans (42%) say that reducing the influence of lobbyists and special interests should be a top priority, up from 28% a year ago. Republicans are now somewhat more likely than Democrats to rate this as a major priority; last year, a higher percentage of Democrats than Republicans said that reining in special interests should be a top priority.

There is little or no partisan difference on two other issues: 37% of Democrats and Republicans say that dealing with global trade should be a top priority, and about half of each group (46% of Republicans and 50% of Democrats) would make a top priority of reducing middle class taxes.

Economic Worries Now Cross Party Lines

There continues to be a sizable partisan gap in ratings of the national economy. Currently, 46% of Republicans, but just 24% of independents and 15% of Democrats, give the economy at least a good rating. During the 1990s, partisan differences on this question were relatively small and inconsistent in direction. Beginning in 2002, a substantial party divide opened up on the question and Democrats and Republicans have remained far apart in their assessments ever since.

However, the party gap has narrowed somewhat, as increasing numbers of moderate and liberal Republicans express negative views of the economy. Over the past four years, conservative Republicans have been more positive about the economy than their moderate and liberal counterparts, but the size of this gap has grown. Currently just 29% of moderate-to-liberal Republicans rate the economy positively; by contrast, a small majority of conservative Republicans (54%) still do so.

Bush Administration’s Legacy

As he begins his final year in office, President Bush’s standing with the public continues to worsen. While his overall job approval ratings are holding steady, the balance of opinion is roughly two-to-one negative (31% approve, 59% disapprove). And the number of Americans – including many within the president’s own party – who see the failures of his administration outweighing the accomplishments continues to rise, and a record high number say this year’s State of the Union address is less important than in past years.

A 59% majority of Americans believe that, in the long run, the failures of the Bush administration will outweigh the accomplishments, up from 53% a year ago. Half as many (28%) say Bush’s accomplishments will outweigh his failures. By comparison, in January 2004 – at the outset of Bush’s re-election campaign – more saw the administrations accomplishments carrying more weight (49%) than its failures (36%).

This dour view of the Bush presidency stands in contrast to public sentiment at the same point in Bill Clinton’s presidency. In January of 2000, 51% felt the Clinton administrations main legacy would be its accomplishments, while just 37% said the failures would stand out.

At the time, a quarter of Republicans felt that Clinton’s legacy would be positive, compared with just 9% of Democrats who say the same about Bush today. And fewer Republicans today (62%) see Bush’s accomplishments standing out compared with Democrats in 2000 (75%). Yet the most striking difference in views of the two presidents’ legacies is among independents. In January 2000, a majority of independents (53%) said that Clinton’s legacy would be marked by his administration’s accomplishments. Today, by a 64% to 23% margin, most independents say Bush’s legacy will be marked by his administration’s failures.

Conservative Republicans continue to say that Bush’s long-term legacy will be positive – 71% say the administration’s accomplishments will outweigh the failures. But among moderate and liberal Republicans – who make up roughly a third of the party – just 44% believe Bush’s accomplishments will stand out, while about the same number (43%) say the administration’s failures will stand out. This is a sharp departure from a year ago, when moderate and liberal Republicans were just as upbeat about Bush’s legacy as conservative Republicans were.

The public continues to express more confidence in the Democratic Party than in the Republican Party as being able to bring about needed change, to govern in an honest and ethical way and to manage the federal government. The Democratic Party’s advantages on these traits are much wider than during the last presidential campaign. Moreover, they remain about as large as they were just prior to the 2006 midterm election, in spite of rising public discontent with the Democrat-led Congress.

The voters’ issues agenda also appears to benefit the Democrats. Along with Iraq, the economy, health care and education rate as the most important issues for voters. Compared with the 2004 campaign, fewer voters now place great importance on the issues that have animated Republican political unity in recent years – including gay marriage, abortion and terrorism.

Looking to the presidential election itself, the political climate appears to be affecting the morale of those in both parties. Democrats are more positive and more enthused than are Republicans. Since the beginning of the year, Democrats have closely followed campaign news at consistently higher rates than have Republicans, and somewhat greater proportions of Democrats say they have given a lot of thought to the presidential candidates.

Republicans not only are less engaged in the campaign, but they also rate their party’s presidential candidates more negatively than do Democrats. Nearly half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (46%) rate the Republican presidential candidates as only fair or poor; by comparison, just 28% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents give the Democratic presidential field comparably low ratings.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 17-23 among 2,007 adults, finds that Hillary Clinton remains the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination. Clinton leads Barack Obama, her closest rival, 45%-24% among Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters. Clinton holds a substantial advantage over Obama and other rivals among most key Democratic voter groups, including liberals and African Americans. College graduates are among the only Democratic groups that splits its support between Clinton and Obama.

The nomination race among Republicans is more fluid, reflecting sharp ideological divides within the party. Giuliani maintains a modest 31%-18% lead over John McCain, with Fred Thompson at 17%, among Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters. Giuliani’s lead has remained fairly stable since March, while Thompson has faltered a bit recently and McCain has lost support over a longer period of time. Since September, Mike Huckabee’s standing has increased from 4% to 8%, giving him virtually the same level of support as Mitt Romney (9%).

The GOP nomination race among Republican evangelicals, in particular, appears to be wide open: Giuliani, McCain and Thompson each draw about 20% of the vote among white Republican and Republican-leaning evangelical voters, with Huckabee and Romney getting about 10% each.

In addition, a solid majority of Republican white evangelicals (55%) say they would at least consider voting for a conservative third-party candidate if the general election is between Giuliani and Clinton. Overall, 44% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters say they would consider backing a third-party candidate who holds more conservative positions than Giuliani on social issues like abortion and gay marriage.

Sen. Clinton holds a 51%-43% advantage over Giuliani in a general election ballot test among all registered voters. Clinton’s lead over Giuliani reflects her strong backing from women (57%-37%). Giuliani runs slightly ahead of her among men (49%- 44%). Clinton’s support is strongest among women voters younger than 50 (60%-36%), while Giuliani’s support is greatest among men in the same age group (52%-45%). Younger women also are the voting group that most often says that, apart from their feelings about Clinton, it would be a good thing to elect a female president. Nearly half (47%) express this opinion, compared with just 34% of older women and 24% of men.

Clinton’s supporters are much more positive about her candidacy than are Giuliani’s. Roughly three-quarters of voters who favor Clinton (76%) say their choice is more a vote for the New York senator, compared with 20% who say their choice is mostly a vote against Giuliani. By contrast, Giuliani’s support is divided fairly evenly between those who see their choice as a vote for Giuliani (46%) and those who say it is a vote against Clinton (50%).

Voters who favor Clinton more often cite her positions on issues as the reason they support her (35%), but many also mention her leadership ability (27%) and experience (24%). Giuliani’s support is much more based on his leadership ability (46%), and much less on his positions on issues (15%).

In fact, Giuliani’s stances on issues are cited less as a reason to support him than has been the case for any presidential candidate since 1992. At the same time, more of his supporters cite his leadership ability as what they like most about him than have the supporters of any candidate in the same period, including George Bush during his reelection campaign in 2004 (46% Giuliani vs. 41% for Bush in September 2004).

As is typically the case, opponents of both Clinton and Giuliani more often cite their positions on issues, rather than leadership, personality or other factors, as the main reason why they are not supporting them. Roughly four-in-ten Giuliani supporters (42%) say Clinton’s positions on issues are what they like least about her; 21% cite Clinton’s personality. Clinton supporters are more divided over what they do not like about Giuliani, and a relatively large minority (33%) offered no response. A plurality of those who did give an answer cited Giuliani’s positions on issues (27%), while 21% mentioned his personality.

The survey finds that in some respects, voters hold similar perceptions of the personal qualities of the New York senator and former New York City mayor. Overwhelming majorities describe Clinton as ambitious (93%), outspoken (84%) and tough (78%). Somewhat smaller, though substantial, majorities also associate these qualities with Giuliani. Smaller percentages see both candidates as compassionate and down-to-earth, and only about half view Clinton (49%) and Giuliani (48%) as trustworthy.

In a follow-up question, voters say that they like Clinton and Giuliani’s ambition, outspokenness and toughness. However, a slightly larger number say they dislike Clinton’s outspokenness than say they dislike this quality in Giuliani (26% vs. 18%). In addition, voters have a more positive view of such qualities as outspokenness and toughness in a hypothetical female leader than they do when those same qualities are associated with Clinton.

Overall, a large majority of the public (64%) says that if Hillary Clinton becomes president, Bill Clinton would have positive influence on the way she does her job. But far fewer people (45%) say they like the idea of the former president “being back in the White House.”

Men and women are about equally positive about Bill Clinton’s influence on Hillary Clinton, but fewer women than men say they like the idea of the former president returning to the White House (40% vs. 52%). Older women are less likely than younger women to say they like the idea of Bill Clinton returning to the White House. White evangelical Protestants also are quite negative about this prospect; fully 58% say they dislike the idea of Bill Clinton being back in the White House.

The public is divided about whether Hillary Clinton would govern the country differently from her husband. About half (48%) say Hillary Clinton’s governing style would be similar, while 45% say it would be different. Most Republicans believe that Hillary Clinton’s style of governing would be similar to Bill Clinton’s – and by two-to-one those who express this opinion see it as a bad thing. Democrats and independents are less certain about Sen. Clinton’s governing style; those who believe Hillary Clinton’s approach will be different from Bill Clinton’s generally see this as a good thing, as do those who believe her approach will be similar.