In the next several weeks the Supreme Court is expected to rule on the constitutionality of the requirement that several states, mostly in the South, get “pre-clearance” from the Justice Department before they make any changes to their election laws. The requirement was part of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which was an emergency measure to outlaw the profound racial discrimination that was disenfranchising African-Americans.

The justices won’t necessarily find a rationale for their decision based on current election polling data. Nevertheless, the experience of voters in recent elections will no doubt be illuminating to the justices, and to all Americans who are concerned with voting rights.

In the past three presidential elections, very few Americans reported having problems or difficulties voting according to Pew Research Center surveys. In its Nov. 8-12 poll in 2012, just 4% of whites answered yes to the question: “Did you have any problems or difficulties voting this year, or not.” Only 2% of African-Americans responded affirmatively.

Four years earlier, the comparable figures were 3% for whites and 4% for blacks, and in 2004, 5% and 3% respectively.

There were accusations leveled during the 2012 presidential campaign that black turnout was being discouraged in Florida and other key states by voter ID laws or attempts at deception or intimidation. Given these charges, Pew went a step further in the 2012 post-election survey than in previous surveys by asking voters if they knew anyone who tried to vote but could not. Blacks more often said they did than whites—14% versus 9%. But a follow-up question, “Why were those people not able to vote?” revealed that this difference was entirely accounted for by the fact that unlike whites, 6% of blacks reported knowing felons who tried to vote but could not.

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Andrew Kohut is the founding director of the Pew Research Center.

It’s possible that the lines may have first crossed in 2008. But it’s also possible they may not have crossed at all.

Let’s start with the second scenario. It’s based on data that suggest that last year, blacks may have been more inclined than whites to report that they voted when in fact they didn’t. This is known as a “social desirability bias,” a familiar concern among survey researchers.

The Census Bureau bases its estimates of voter turnout on self-reports from a survey of a nationally representative sample of about 55,000 households. The survey is conducted in the two weeks after each federal election and is considered the best source of information on the demographics of the nation’s electorate. However, this self-report method typically produces a modest over-estimate of turnout, and 2012 was no exception. According to the Census Bureau’s estimates, 133 million Americans voted last year, but according to the official state-by-state tallies, just 129 million did.

Moreover, if you analyze the discrepancies by state, as the Pew Research Center has (download our Election Turnout Rates by State analysis in Excel), you find a pattern that casts some doubt on the Census Bureau’s announcement. It turns out that the phenomenon of over reporting tended to be most pronounced in states that have the highest share of blacks in their citizen-age electorate.

As the chart below shows, Mississippi and Washington, D.C., were the two jurisdictions with the largest gap between the estimated and official total voter turnout rates. In Mississippi, the Census Bureau estimated a statewide turnout rate of 74.5%, while the actual state tallies showed a turnout rate of 60.4%—a gap of 14.1 percentage points. In Washington, the Census Bureau estimated a jurisdiction wide turnout rate of 75.9%, compared with an actual turnout rate of 63.7%—a gap of 12.2 percentage points. The Census Bureau’s estimates also place Mississippi and the District of Columbia ahead of any other state’s voter turnout rate in 2012, even the usual top dog Minnesota, whose officials raised questions about the Census Bureau’s results.

Mississippi and Washington also happen to be the two jurisdictions in the country with the highest share of blacks in their voting age citizen eligible population—35% and 49%,¹ respectively. As the scatter plot chart of voter turnout rates in all 50 states and the District of Columbia shows, respondents in other states with high black population shares—such as South Carolina, Louisiana and Georgia—also over-reported their turnout rates in 2012 at levels well above the nationwide gap of 1.8 percentage points.

Might this be because non-voting blacks were more eager than non-voting whites to tell survey takers that they voted for the first ever African-American president? While there’s no way of knowing for sure, the data are suggestive. When we plotted the state discrepancies in 2008 and 2004, we found a similar pattern, but we also found the racial skew was stronger in 2008 and 2012, the two elections in which Obama was on the ballot, than in 2004.

To better understand these patterns, we computed a “correlation coefficient,” which measures the relationship between two phenomena of interest—in this case, the over reporting of turnout in a state (the difference between the estimated and official voter turnout rates) and the share of a state’s adult population that is black. Our analysis finds a positive correlation of .52 (on a scale of -1 to 1) in 2012, .54 in 2008 and .41 in 2004. If we remove the two biggest outliers in the scatter plot analysis—Mississippi and Washington—the overall correlation remains positive, but it is only about half as large.

It’s also important to note that some states with small black populations over-reported, while a few states with large black populations under-reported. For example, the Census Bureau estimated that New Mexico’s voter turnout rate was 61.6%, compared with the official tally of 55%. New Mexico has a small share of blacks (2.7%) in its voting eligible population. On the other hand, the Census Bureau findings from Maryland, which has an age-eligible electorate that is 29% black, suggest that respondents under-reported their turnout by 2.5 percentage points.

Finally, it is also worth noting that just because voting was more widely over-reported in states with higher African-American populations, there is no way of knowing if blacks or non-blacks were more likely to over-report. This correlation is intriguing, but not definitive. In addition, one should keep in mind that the Census Bureau’s findings from individual states are subject to margins of error that may account for some of the apparent discrepancies in estimated and actual turnout rates.

Bottom line: This analysis doesn’t prove the Census Bureau’s finding is wrong. Nor does it negate the long-term turnout trends, which show that black turnout has been rising since 1996. It may, however, merit an asterisk alongside the claim that blacks turned out at a higher rate than whites in 2012.

But wait, what about the first scenario—the possibility  that this milestone actually occurred in 2008, not 2012?

That assessment is based an analysis that removes from the pool of eligible voters all adults who have been disenfranchised as a result of felony convictions, something the Census Bureau does not (and cannot) do. According to the Sentencing Project, an advocacy group, nearly 6 million adults are ineligible to vote for that reason, a disproportionate share of whom are black. If you recalculate turnout rates after removing those disenfranchised voters, then 68.5% of eligible blacks voted in 2008, compared with 67% of eligible whites, according to Bernard L. Fraga, a political scientist studying at Harvard. The Census Bureau, by contrast, had 66.1% of whites voting that year, compared with 64.7% of blacks.

So pick your data source and write your own history.

The Census Bureau made big news last week when it reported that the black voter turnout rate (66.2%) exceeded the white voter turnout rate (64.1%) for the first time ever in 2012. But a closer look at the numbers raises some intriguing questions.

It’s possible that the lines may have first crossed in 2008. But it’s also possible they may not have crossed at all.

Let’s start with the second scenario. It’s based on data that suggest that last year, blacks may have been more inclined than whites to report that they voted when in fact they didn’t. This is known as a “social desirability bias,” a familiar concern among survey researchers.

The Census Bureau bases its estimates of voter turnout on self-reports from a survey of a nationally representative sample of about 55,000 households. The survey is conducted in the two weeks after each federal election and is considered the best source of information on the demographics of the nation’s electorate. However, this self-report method typically produces a modest over-estimate of turnout, and 2012 was no exception. According to the Census Bureau’s estimates, 133 million Americans voted last year, but according to the official state-by-state tallies, just 129 million did.

Moreover, if you analyze the discrepancies by state, as the Pew Research Center has (download our Election Turnout Rates by State data in Excel), you find a pattern that casts some doubt on the Census Bureau’s announcement. It turns out that the phenomenon of over reporting tended to be most pronounced in states that have the highest share of blacks in their citizen-age electorate.

As the chart below shows, Mississippi and Washington, D.C., were the two jurisdictions with the largest gap between the estimated and official total voter turnout rates. In Mississippi, the Census Bureau estimated a statewide turnout rate of 74.5%, while the actual state tallies showed a turnout rate of 60.4%—a gap of 14.1 percentage points. In Washington, the Census Bureau estimated a jurisdiction wide turnout rate of 75.9%, compared with an actual turnout rate of 63.7%—a gap of 12.2 percentage points. The Census Bureau’s estimates also place Mississippi and the District of Columbia ahead of any other state’s voter turnout rate in 2012, even the usual top dog Minnesota, whose officials raised questions about the Census Bureau’s results.

Mississippi and Washington also happen to be the two jurisdictions in the country with the highest share of blacks in their voting age citizen eligible population—35% and 49%,¹ respectively. As the scatter plot chart of voter turnout rates in all 50 states and the District of Columbia shows, respondents in other states with high black population shares—such as South Carolina, Louisiana and Georgia—also over-reported their turnout rates in 2012 at levels well above the nationwide gap of 1.8 percentage points.

Might this be because non-voting blacks were more eager than non-voting whites to tell survey takers that they voted for the first ever African-American president? While there’s no way of knowing for sure, the data are suggestive. When we plotted the state discrepancies in 2008 and 2004, we found a similar pattern, but we also found the racial skew was stronger in 2008 and 2012, the two elections in which Obama was on the ballot, than in 2004.

To better understand these patterns, we computed a “correlation coefficient,” which measures the relationship between two phenomena of interest—in this case, the over reporting of turnout in a state (the difference between the estimated and official voter turnout rates) and the share of a state’s adult population that is black. Our analysis finds a positive correlation of .52 (on a scale of -1 to 1) in 2012, .54 in 2008 and .41 in 2004. If we remove the two biggest outliers in the scatter plot analysis—Mississippi and Washington—the overall correlation remains positive, but it is only about half as large.

It’s also important to note that some states with small black populations over-reported, while a few states with large black populations under-reported. For example, the Census Bureau estimated that New Mexico’s voter turnout rate was 61.6%, compared with the official tally of 55%. New Mexico has a small share of blacks (2.7%) in its voting eligible population. On the other hand, the Census Bureau findings from Maryland, which has an age-eligible electorate that is 29% black, suggest that respondents under-reported their turnout by 2.5 percentage points.

Finally, it is also worth noting that just because voting was more widely over-reported in states with higher African-American populations, there is no way of knowing if blacks or non-blacks were more likely to over-report. This correlation is intriguing, but not definitive. In addition, one should keep in mind that the Census Bureau’s findings from individual states are subject to margins of error that may account for some of the apparent discrepancies in estimated and actual turnout rates.

Bottom line: This analysis doesn’t prove the Census Bureau’s finding is wrong. Nor does it negate the long-term turnout trends, which show that black turnout has been rising since 1996. It may, however, merit an asterisk alongside the claim that blacks turned out at a higher rate than whites in 2012.

But wait, what about the first scenario—the possibility  that this milestone actually occurred in 2008, not 2012?

That assessment is based an analysis that removes from the pool of eligible voters all adults who have been disenfranchised as a result of felony convictions, something the Census Bureau does not (and cannot) do. According to the Sentencing Project, an advocacy group, nearly 6 million adults are ineligible to vote for that reason, a disproportionate share of who are black. If you recalculate turnout rates after removing those disenfranchised voters, then 68.5% of eligible blacks voted in 2008, compared with 67% of eligible whites, according to Bernard L. Fraga, a political scientist studying at Harvard. The Census Bureau, by contrast, had 66.1% of whites voting that year, compared with 64.7% of blacks.

So pick your data source and write your own history.

Paul Taylor is the executive vice president of the Pew Research Center. Mark Hugo Lopez is associate director of the Pew Research Hispanic Center.

Today’s report from the Census Bureau on the diversifying American electorate in 2012 confirms an historic turnout milestone first noted last December by the Pew Research Center, but undercuts a number of other widely-reported demographic analyses of last year’s presidential vote.

Here are the six most important take-aways from Census Bureau data:

1. For the first time ever, the black voter turnout rate in a presidential election exceeded the white voter turnout rate—66.2% versus 64.1%. While the presence of Barack Obama on the ballot in 2008 and 2012 no doubt contributed to the narrowing and reversal of what had been a longstanding black-white turnout gap, the rise in the black turnout rate pre-dates his candidacies, as the chart to the right illustrates.

2. Hispanics continue to punch below their weight. Much was made right after the November election about the clout of the Hispanic vote (by, among others, the Pew Research Center). But the new Census Bureau data show that Hispanics’ turnout rate—just 48%—was far below that of whites (64.1%) or blacks (66.2%).  It also fell nearly two percentage points below the Hispanic turnout rate in 2008, which was 49.9%. Because of population growth, the number of Latinos who voted for president increased by about 1.4 million from 2008 to 2012, to a record 11.2 million, but the number of  Latinos who were eligible but chose not to vote increased even more—by 2.3 million—from 9.8 million in 2008 to 12.1 million in 2012.

3. Youth voter turnout rates also declined from 2008 to 2012, contrary to initial reports based on the national Election Day exit polls, which had shown the youth voter turnout rate holding steady. According to the Census Bureau report, the turnout rate among 18-to 24-year olds fell to 41.2% in 2012 from 48.5% in 2008. (Most of the post-election analysis of the youth vote focused on 18- to 29-year-olds and showed no change in voter turnout rates between 2008 and 2012; the Census Bureau report only provides an analysis for those ages 18 to 24 years.) The turnout rates of adults ages 65 and older rose—to 71.9% in 2012 from 70.3% in 2008, according to the Census Bureau report.

4. Despite the low turnout rates for Hispanics, their high share of the under 18 population of the U.S. means that, by dint of generational replacement, they will become a more important voting bloc in future elections. Hispanics are 17% of the total U.S. population, but 24% of the under 18 population.  Each year, an estimated 800,000 Latino youths turn 18. The overwhelming share is U.S-born citizens, and thus automatically eligible to vote once they enter adulthood.

5. Likewise, the so-called Millennial generation (adults, born after 1980, who are now ages 18 to 33) is certain to become a growing share of the electorate.  Today they are 25.5% of the age-eligible electorate. By 2020, they will be 36.5%. If history is a guide, this cohort of voters will increase its voter participation levels as it grows older.

6. Non-whites were 26.3% of all voters in the 2012 election, a record high share. But they compose an even higher share of all U.S. adults age 18 and older—33.9%. By 2020 this share will rise to 37.2%, and by 2060 it will be 54.8%, according to Census Bureau projections. If the racial voting patterns from the 2012 election persist, the electoral playing field for future Republican presidential candidates will become increasingly difficult. (GOP candidate Mitt Romney received just 17% of the non-white vote.)

Lastly, a methodological note:

The gap between the voter turnout reported by the Census Bureau and the actual national vote tallied by election officials widened in 2012. According to the Census Bureau’s 2012 Current Population Survey November Supplement on Voting and Registration, an estimated 133 million U.S. citizens voted in 2012. That estimate is higher—by 4 million votes—than the national tally of 129 million votes cast for president. The gap in reported votes and the actual vote tally is the widest since 2000 (when the gap was 5.4 million votes) and marks the first widening of the gap since 1984. The Census Bureau’s November supplement to the CPS is the most comprehensive data source available for examining the demographic composition of the electorate in federal elections, but it relies on a post-election self-reporting by survey respondents. Because of what is sometimes described as “social desirability bias” some survey respondents may say they voted when in fact they did not.

Paul Taylor is the executive vice president of the Pew Research Center. Mark Hugo Lopez is associate director of the Pew Hispanic Center.

Here are the six most important take-aways from Census Bureau data:

1. For the first time ever, the black voter turnout rate in a presidential election exceeded the white voter turnout rate—66.2% versus 64.1%. While the presence of Barack Obama on the ballot in 2008 and 2012 no doubt contributed to the narrowing and reversal of what had been a longstanding black-white turnout gap, the rise in the black turnout rate pre-dates his candidacies, as the chart to the right illustrates.

2. Hispanics continue to punch below their weight. Much was made right after the November election about the clout of the Hispanic vote (by, among others, the Pew Research Center). But the new Census Bureau data show that Hispanics’ turnout rate—just 48%—was far below that of whites (64.1%) or blacks (66.2%).  It also fell nearly two percentage points below the Hispanic turnout rate in 2008, which was 49.9%. Because of population growth, the number of Latinos who voted for president increased by about 1.4 million from 2008 to 2012, to a record 11.2 million, but the number of  Latinos who were eligible but chose not to vote increased even more—by 2.3 million—from 9.8 million in 2008 to 12.1 million in 2012.

3. Youth voter turnout rates also declined from 2008 to 2012, contrary to initial reports based on the national Election Day exit polls, which had shown the youth voter turnout rate holding steady. According to the Census Bureau report, the turnout rate among 18-to 24-year olds fell to 41.2% in 2012 from 48.5% in 2008. (Most of the post-election analysis of the youth vote focused on 18- to 29-year-olds and showed no change in voter turnout rates between 2008 and 2012; the Census Bureau report only provides an analysis for those ages 18 to 24 years.) The turnout rates of adults ages 65 and older rose—to 71.9% in 2012 from 70.3% in 2008, according to the Census Bureau report.

4. Despite the low turnout rates for Hispanics, their high share of the under 18 population of the U.S. means that, by dint of generational replacement, they will become a more important voting bloc in future elections. Hispanics are 17% of the total U.S. population, but 24% of the under 18 population.  Each year, an estimated 800,000 Latino youths turn 18. The overwhelming share is U.S-born citizens, and thus automatically eligible to vote once they enter adulthood.

5. Likewise, the so-called Millennial generation (adults, born after 1980, who are now ages 18 to 33) is certain to become a growing share of the electorate.  Today they are 25.5% of the age-eligible electorate. By 2020, they will be 36.5%. If history is a guide, this cohort of voters will increase its voter participation levels as it grows older.

6. Non-whites were 26.3% of all voters in the 2012 election, a record high share. But they compose an even higher share of all U.S. adults age 18 and older—33.9%. By 2020 this share will rise to 37.2%, and by 2060 it will be 54.8%, according to Census Bureau projections. If the racial voting patterns from the 2012 election persist, the electoral playing field for future Republican presidential candidates will become increasingly difficult. (GOP candidate Mitt Romney received just 17% of the non-white vote.)

Lastly, a methodological note:

The gap between the voter turnout reported by the Census Bureau and the actual national vote tallied by election officials widened in 2012. According to the Census Bureau’s 2012 Current Population Survey November Supplement on Voting and Registration, an estimated 133 million U.S. citizens voted in 2012. That estimate is higher—by 4 million votes—than the national tally of 129 million votes cast for president. The gap in reported votes and the actual vote tally is the widest since 2000 (when the gap was 5.4 million votes) and marks the first widening of the gap since 1984. The Census Bureau’s November supplement to the CPS is the most comprehensive data source available for examining the demographic composition of the electorate in federal elections, but it relies on a post-election self-reporting by survey respondents. Because of what is sometimes described as “social desirability bias” some survey respondents may say they voted when in fact they did not.