This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals: Primary Researchers Scott Keeter, Senior Survey Advisor Ruth Igielnik, Research Associate Andrew Mercer, Research Methodologist Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Collaborating Researchers Claudia Deane, Vice President, Research Michael Dimock, President Ken Goldstein, University of San Francisco Courtney Kennedy, Director […]
The analysis presented here suggests that modeling the electorate is likely to continue to vex pollsters, especially if no official record of past voting is available as an input to the models. As if to affirm this somewhat pessimistic conclusion, polls have failed to accurately predict winning candidates in several recent elections, including the 2015 […]
3. Comparing the results of different likely voter models
All told, we tested 16 different variations on four types of likely voter methods, producing estimates that range from a 2-point Democratic lead to a 7-point Republican advantage in the generic U.S. House vote. The benchmark for comparison is a 3-point Republican lead among verified voters (49% Republican, 46% Democratic) when they were interviewed prior […]
2: Measuring the likelihood to vote
The survey literature has long shown that more respondents say they intend to vote than actually cast a ballot (e.g., Bernstein et al. 2001; Silver et al. 1986). In addition, some people say they do not expect to vote but actually do, perhaps because they are contacted by a campaign or a friend close to […]
1. Polls and votes: The 2014 elections by the numbers
Our equivalent of a crystal ball – the voter file, combined with a post-election survey interview – provides us with a validated record of turnout for our survey respondents. Our post-election survey provides us with the respondents’ report of how they voted. This allows us to see how a Democratic advantage among registered voters in […]
Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
Twins, triplets and more: More U.S. births are multiples than ever before
The share of multiples born in the U.S. is at an all-time high. In 2014, 3.5% of all babies born were twins, triplets or higher-order multiples, new data show.
Supreme Court could reshape voting districts, with big impact on Hispanics
How the Supreme Court decides a redistricting case from Texas could affect Hispanic voting strength and House representation from coast to coast.
Cuban immigration to U.S. surges as relations warm
The number of Cubans seeking to enter the U.S. has spiked dramatically since President Obama announced in December a renewal of ties with the island nation.
Muslims and Islam: Key findings in the U.S. and around the world
Muslims are the fastest-growing religious group in the world. Here are some questions and answers about their public opinions and demographics.