The 2016 Presidential Campaign – a News Event That’s Hard to Miss
About nine-in-ten Americans learn about the election in a given week. But they are divided on what type of news source – from television to digital to radio to print – they find most helpful.
2016 electorate will be the most diverse in U.S. history
Nearly one-in-three eligible voters on Election Day (31%) will be Hispanic, black, Asian or another racial or ethnic minority.
The demographic trends shaping American politics in 2016 and beyond
In an era of head-snapping racial, social, cultural, economic, religious, gender, generational and technological change, Americans have been sorting themselves into think-alike communities that reflect not only their politics but their demographics.
Mapping the Latino Electorate by Congressional District
A record 25.2 million Latinos will be eligible to vote in the 2014 midterm elections. See how the share of Latino voters varies by congressional district.
Mapping the Latino Electorate by State
A record 25.2 million Latinos will be eligible to vote in the 2014 midterm elections. See how the share of Latino voters varies by state.
Millennials Make Up Almost Half of Latino Eligible Voters in 2016
Hispanic millennials will account for 44% of the Hispanic electorate. The coming of age of youth and naturalizations will drive the number of Latino eligible voters to a record 27.3 million this year.
Appendix C: Sensitivity to the turnout forecast
The candidate preferences of voters and nonvoters in 2014 were very different. This fact makes cutoff methods very sensitive to the chosen turnout threshold. Using the Perry-Gallup method, the forecast margin ranges from a tie vote (47%-47%) with a more inclusive model (a turnout forecast of 60% of registered voters, 42% of the general public) […]
Appendix B: The choice of a turnout measure
There are two indicators of voter turnout available for the type of analysis in this report: (1) each respondent’s self-report in the post-election survey and (2) a voter file record of turnout. Among registered voters, 63% have a voter file record indicating that they voted in 2014 (“verified voters”) and 75% said they voted (“self-reported […]
Appendix A: The Perry-Gallup measures
The items used in the so-called Perry-Gallup scale – originally developed in the 1950s and ’60s by election polling pioneer Paul Perry of Gallup and used in various combinations and with some alterations by the Pew Research Center, Gallup and other organizations in their pre-election polling (Perry 1960, 1979) – are widely employed by survey […]
The American Trends Panel surveys (ATP) The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults living in households. Respondents who self-identify as internet users (representing 89% of U.S. adults) participate in the panel via monthly self-administered Web surveys, and those who do not use […]