Likely Rise In Voter Turnout Bodes Well For Democrats
Even with a partisan enthusiasm gap, voter interest is already as high as in November of recent elections, two trends that may significantly alter the composition of the eventual electorate in the Democrats’ favor. The proportion of swing voters is also up compared with four years ago. Nearly half of independents (47%) are undecided or may change their minds, up from 28% in June 2004.
In Tight General Election, McCain’s Negatives Mostly Political, Obama’s More Personal
While Obama has opened up a wide lead in the Democratic primary, he now runs about even against McCain. The tightening general election shows some sullying of Obama’s personal image over the past three months, which is in some measure a negative reaction from frustrated Clinton supporters. McCain’s image has also become more negative since February, however, unlike Obama, those who disapprove cite his political beliefs.
Character and the Primaries of 2008
A new analysis of media coverage during the first ten weeks of the 2008 primary season finds the dominant personal narratives about Obama and Clinton were almost identical in tone, and were both twice as positive as negative. The coverage of McCain’s character was less positive than that of either Democratic candidate.
Obama’s Lead Over Clinton Disappears; Unfavorables Rise for Both Candidates
Barack Obama’s slipping support for the Democratic nomination reflects a modest decline in his personal image rather than improved impressions of Hillary Clinton. Both retain advantage over McCain as economy tops public’s concerns.
More Americans View Campaign As Too Negative
Barack Obama’s ‘bitter’ comment registered widely but just 29% of Americans say they paid very close attention to news about the presidential campaign last week, the lowest percentage recorded since December 2007.
That’s What I Like About Me
Obama’s high favorable ratings are more influenced by how he makes voters feel than by specific characteristics they attributed to him. Clinton’s image, in contrast, is driven by opinions about her own qualities.
Obama Weathers the Wright Storm, Clinton Faces Credibility Problem
Obama’s personal image remains more favorable than Clinton’s – and he retains a 10-point advantage over her in the race for the nomination. But certain beliefs and attitudes among older, white, working-class Democrats are associated with his lower levels of support among this group.
Getting to Know Them
If they turn out to be their party’s nominees, both Barack Obama and John McCain need to educate voters about themselves in some pretty basic, and challenging, ways.
In November, Will Age Matter?
John McCain’s age has remained notably absent as a campaign issue, but earlier polling data suggest it could become a big issue for the Arizona senator come November.
Obama Inspiring but Inexperienced, Clinton Prepared to Lead but “Hard to Like”
While Democrats and independents who lean Democratic believe Clinton is prepared to lead, Obama has a clear lead on three positive campaign themes: inspiration, change, and honesty.