At the Start of the Primary Season, Republicans Run Neck and Neck Nationally, Clinton Clings to Solid Lead
On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Giuliani’s once solid lead in nationwide polls has vanished; religion has become a larger factor for GOP voters as Huckabee has become better known. The Democratic contest remains largely stable nationwide despite close state races.
Primary Preview: Dynamics Differ for the Two Parties in Early Races
For Democratic candidates, the decisive factors in Iowa and New Hampshire are personal and tactical; for GOP contestants, however, the ultimate outcome may be decided by the relative strength of newly combative ideological elements.
GOP Race Unsettled in Politically Diverse Early States
Likely Republican voters in the three politically disparate early primary states express less enthusiasm about their field of presidential candidates, and many voice only modest support for their choices.
Clinton Pressed in Iowa, But Holds Solid Leads Elsewhere
Democrats enter the presidential primary campaign upbeat about their candidates and united in their views on major issues. Sen. Hillary Clinton is the Democratic frontrunner in three key early primary states, holding a slim five-point edge in Iowa and more substantial 19-point and 14-point leads in New Hampshire and South Carolina, respectively.
Tracking the Traders
A look at the attitudes of the regular buyers and sellers who make the stock market go up and down finds they are, among other things, even more likely to support the frontrunners in both the Democratic and Republican primaries.
The View from the Other Side
A survey finds no evidence that a significant number of voters are considering crossing party lines — or voting strategically for the other party’s weakest candidate.
Religious Groups’ Presidential Candidate Preferences
A new analysis of recent surveys show Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani as the preferred candidates among key religious groups. Giuliani, though, garners considerably less support from white evangelical Protestants than he does from white mainline Protestants and white Catholics.
A Year Ahead, Republicans Face Tough Political Terrain
A year before the 2008 presidential election, most major national opinion trends decidedly favor the Democrats and discontent with the state of the nation is markedly greater than it was four years ago. Also, Republicans have become less likely to say that their party is doing a good job standing up for its traditional positions.
The Oprah Factor in Campaign ’08
Do political endorsements matter? Generally they have little impact on voter preferences, but there’s no telling whether Oprah Winfrey can do for Obama what she has done for countless books and products.
Black Enthusiasm for Clinton and Obama Leaves Little Room for Edwards
The popularity of the two top contenders among key segments of the Democratic electorate may help explain why Edwards’s populist platform has not drawn wider support so far.