Likely Rise In Voter Turnout Bodes Well For Democrats
Even with a partisan enthusiasm gap, voter interest is already as high as in November of recent elections, two trends that may significantly alter the composition of the eventual electorate in the Democrats’ favor. The proportion of swing voters is also up compared with four years ago. Nearly half of independents (47%) are undecided or may change their minds, up from 28% in June 2004.
In Tight General Election, McCain’s Negatives Mostly Political, Obama’s More Personal
While Obama has opened up a wide lead in the Democratic primary, he now runs about even against McCain. The tightening general election shows some sullying of Obama’s personal image over the past three months, which is in some measure a negative reaction from frustrated Clinton supporters. McCain’s image has also become more negative since February, however, unlike Obama, those who disapprove cite his political beliefs.
In the Public Eye: Who’s Up (Al Gore) And Who’s Down (Oprah Winfrey)
Since endorsing Obama, the talk show host’s popularity has fallen among Republicans while the former vice president now rivals Obama and tops Clinton in favorability.
The Widening Gap
While Barack Obama’s appeal to the young coincides with their increasing Democratic alignment, older voters do not show the greater allegiance to the GOP that might explain their relative reluctance to support him.
The Race Factor Redux
While the outcome of the North Carolina primary fit into a racial pattern observed in earlier primaries this year, Clinton’s showing in Indiana was less strong than would have been expected.
Obama’s Lead Over Clinton Disappears; Unfavorables Rise for Both Candidates
Barack Obama’s slipping support for the Democratic nomination reflects a modest decline in his personal image rather than improved impressions of Hillary Clinton. Both retain advantage over McCain as economy tops public’s concerns.
Obama’s Catholic Voter Problem?
Hillary Clinton won the Catholic vote in Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary by more than a two-to-one margin, repeating a pattern among religious voters similar to those seen in other states. Does this have implications for the May 6 contests in Indiana and North Carolina?
No Clear Advantage
Electability is an issue, and one that both Obama and Clinton are likely to use to woo the superdelegates. But our polling suggests that neither candidate has a demonstrable advantage to tout.
Religious Voters in Pennsylvania
Connections that Clinton, Obama and McCain make — or fail to make — with the state’s religious voters could have major consequences on April 22 and November 4.
That’s What I Like About Me
Obama’s high favorable ratings are more influenced by how he makes voters feel than by specific characteristics they attributed to him. Clinton’s image, in contrast, is driven by opinions about her own qualities.
