The Element of Surprise
As recently as a month ago, this analyst and the American public itself were throwing up our hands and saying we can’t figure this one out — too many intangibles. No more.
Liberal Democrats Top Conservative Republicans in Donations, Activism
With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, voters remain riveted to the presidential campaign. But liberal Democrats are engaging in far more activism than other partisan and ideological groups.
Doubts Grow About McCain’s Judgment, Age and Campaign
Obama is inspiring more confidence on several key issues, including Iraq and terrorism, than he did before the debates, and his margin over McCain as the candidate best able to improve economic conditions has grown.
McCain Gains on Issues, But Stalls as Candidate of Change
The race remains close as enthusiasm for McCain increases among GOP base. Somewhat more swing voters (46%) say their greater concern is that McCain will govern too much like President Bush, rather than that Obama lacks experience (37%).
The Purpose Driven Campaign: The Candidates’ Forum with Rick Warren
McCain and Obama will make their first joint appearance of the general election campaign at an event moderated by Pastor Rick Warren at his 22,000-member Saddleback Church. John Green discusses what the candidates stand to gain from speaking with Warren and the challenges that Warren will face as he attempts to broaden evangelicals’ political agenda.
Likely Rise In Voter Turnout Bodes Well For Democrats
Even with a partisan enthusiasm gap, voter interest is already as high as in November of recent elections, two trends that may significantly alter the composition of the eventual electorate in the Democrats’ favor. The proportion of swing voters is also up compared with four years ago. Nearly half of independents (47%) are undecided or may change their minds, up from 28% in June 2004.
Obama Backers Cool to Clinton as Running Mate
While a majority of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (53%) favor a so-called “Dream Ticket,” fully 54% of Obama supporters do not want Clinton chosen as his running mate.
In Tight General Election, McCain’s Negatives Mostly Political, Obama’s More Personal
While Obama has opened up a wide lead in the Democratic primary, he now runs about even against McCain. The tightening general election shows some sullying of Obama’s personal image over the past three months, which is in some measure a negative reaction from frustrated Clinton supporters. McCain’s image has also become more negative since February, however, unlike Obama, those who disapprove cite his political beliefs.
More Americans View Campaign As Too Negative
Barack Obama’s ‘bitter’ comment registered widely but just 29% of Americans say they paid very close attention to news about the presidential campaign last week, the lowest percentage recorded since December 2007.
Robo-Calls Now Top Type Of Campaign Outreach
About two-in-five voters now say they have received a pre-recorded call about the campaign. Meanwhile, Democrats are far more engaged in campaign activities than are Republcians — including donating money to a candidate.